Free Daily Post: 05/06/17 (complete)

micro + bet of the day.

TIPS

none.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.10 NA- Tea In Transvaal (12/1<)

 

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From today’s Members’ post…

Bet of The Day – (what looks most interesting to my eyes from all the TTP stats qualifiers)

3.30 Thirsk – Pomme De Terre – 1 point win – 8/1 (Betfred) 15/2 (gen)

This one should relish the forecast rain and does need it to arrive as expected. If this has any cut come race time he seems to have a decent chance to my eye. He is 2lb below his last win which was a decent enough big field C4 sprint at York. He returned on unsuitably fast ground the last day but has come down a couple of pounds and now drops in class also, into this C5. He is 2/4 with OR 71-80, 0/5,0p 81+. So, he is now handicapped again to go well. The blinkers also return which haven’t been worn for a little while. He is 2/6,3 places in those, 0/6,0p all other headgear/no headgear. He appears to have ideal conditions here and is doing a few things differently from recent runs, namely class drop/headgear change. And he should get his ground. He looks a bet to me at those odds. The one niggle is the draw in box 1. But the stalls are in the centre today and the horse in stall 4 likes to get on with it and should toe him into the race. The yard is ticking along and with any luck he can break my mini drought.

 

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That is all for today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. couple that caught my eye at Thirsk if it turns soft are the rag Oh James in the 3.30, won over CD in soft on sole 2 year old start, missed a fair chunk and 2 very poor runs this time but yard don’t persevere for no reason and might be worth a small e/w poke at 22/1.

    In the 4.00 the 2 soft ground wins of Fahey’s Sunnua off higher marks look very interesting and I’ve had an e/w dabble at 14/1

  2. In recent years, Fahey has shown to do well with his fancied (<25/1) handicap runners at Leicester/Nottingham/Warwick over 6f-1m1f.
    This year he is 3/13,+2 BFSP, 2016: 9/41 +50, 2015:11/33 +77, 2014: 6/28 +18.

    He has one such runner today : 5.25 Leicester – Flyboy at 7/2 now. Opened at 11/2 last night then 9/2 this morning.

  3. At Leicester ester today and forgot to post race analysis.
    Strong selection Thirsk Another Day of Sun. Ground should be OK.

    At Windsor think Choice Encounter might be as good as the favourite.

    Leicester, who knows?

    1. Just for the sake of completeness here are yesterday’s sheets

      4.25
      3.75 Another Day Of Sun, Emerald Rocket
      3.5
      3.25 Byron’s Choice. Mabo
      3
      2.75
      2.5 Mr Wagyu
      2.25 Mount Hellvelyn
      1.5 Hamba Moyo, Aliento 1.25 Rock On Bertie, 1 Archie Perkins, Harvest Day
      Preview – Although on reflection I may have slightly over-rated Another Day Of Sun and he does not have a great draw, he looks a solid selection for this race.

      Prior race notes
      Another Day Of Sun – Cheap one bought for only 25k. Lower to mid medium, too free early, baulked late on and allowed to coast home. Instructive to look at his picture next to Masar as they are on almost the identical stride and similar shapes although ADOS is ¾ to 1 size smaller. ADOS’s coat is still to come through fully and he does not have quite the sheen of Masar. His muscle tone is also a little less defined. Possibly his neck is a little long for his frame in comparison and he does not give quite the impression of rib cage volume and power that Masar does. That said he does not look completely out of place and is a likeable type who will win races. My guess would be 82.
      6th June Windsor 6f Novice
      4.25 Nine below Zero, Lethal Lunch
      3.75 Midsummer Knight
      3.5 Choice Encounter
      3.25
      3
      2.75
      2.5
      2.25
      1.75 The Golden Cue
      Preview – As Nine Below Zero must give both Choice Encounter and Midsummer Knight 6lbs and I have them only 2 and 3lbs lower respectively I think that Choice Encounter should be able to take this. Midsummer Knight is a May foal and looked a bit weak and leggy at Salisbury. NBZ seemed to win his race fairly easily but I don’t think there was anything close to the quality of Last Voyage who Choice Encounter ran to a short head lto.

      Prior race notes
      Nine Below Zero – Compact bottom end of medium, with good volume in the ribcage area. Looking a bit woolly on the coat over the ribs. Travelled well and won under hands and heels. A respectable time so this one may be a bit better than he looks at present. 77
      Lethal Lunch – Mid medium, looked a bit lifeless in the paddock but Hannon’s are often laid back. Not the stride of the winner and seemed a bit green, hanging both ways at times. Never asked more than to learn the game by Ryan. Improve nto but by how much I am not sure. I would have expected a place here if this is going to be anything more than a nursery candidate. Worth another chance but probably no better than 70.
      Midsummer Knight – Likeable lower end of medium but a bit lighter built than Nine Below Zero. Looked ready but a bit green and needs to grow into frame. May foal might explain it. 74
      Choice Encounter – Strongly made, lower end of medium, good attitude. Not dis-similar in style of build to the winner. Without Last Voyage in the field I would have been confident that this one would win. I am a bit puzzled by his previous form. Should win a maiden and might be a bit better.
      Hugh

  4. 2.30 Thirsk
    JEDI MASTER at evens look a real value price.(2.12 on betfair)
    he was 2nd at grade 1 course Doncaste lto and has now had three races under his belt

    Handled soft ground ok last time so rain wont be a problem
    and the step up to 6f looks like it will see improve as he was running on strongly last time over 5
    and his breeding scream more than 5f.

    he is drawn 10 of 11 which is a plus at Thirsk and when you look at his main rivals
    he becomes even more appealing
    RAMPANT LION was beaten a bus ride fto at Windsor and while Mark Johnstons often
    improve for a run he has to come on about 12 lengths to trouble the fav

    CURZON Is next in the betting but he is a late foal who is drawn in the middle of the track in stall2
    he will have to be very classy to lay it down to a battle harden fahey horse who is drawn much better
    and can’t be fancied, to win he will have to be a class 2/3 horse

    the next horse Monkey magic is another MAY foal who’s form looks way behind Jedi Master
    the rest look unfancied

    2.12 on betfair looks value as in my book he should be 4/6

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