Free Daily Post: 11/05/17 (complete)

Pace ‘tips’ x2, + micros…

TIPS

none.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.15 Worc- Butlergrove King (16/1< guide)

2.45 Worc – Rude And Crude (14/1<)

3.20 Worc – Guanciale (16/1< guide)

4.55 Worc – Rockchasebullet (12/1<)

5.25 Worc – Mr Kit Cat (12/1<)

 

**

PACE WINS THE RACE (test)

(running total, 0/1,0p, -1)

1.50 Chester – Berkshire – 1 point win 7/1 (general) UP

8.25 Carlisle – Mrs Grass – 1 point win – 9/2 (general) UP

 

*bugger…always annoying when they don’t lead when you thought they might, albeit it wouldn’t have mattered given the winner is clearly very smart. He was keen but I knew he may be, so that isn’t an excuse. Would have been nice to give fav backers a scare turning in,not to be. 

Berkshire – I think there is plenty to like about his chances here. Obviously I think he may try and make all, if they want. Yes Norton and Hart may want their charges handy but this on’es legs just move quicker and if Spencer wants to lead/dictate, I think he can. There is no pace on his inside and he should be able to get out and across. I am a massive Spencer fan, I like marmite (actually, I don’t, horrid stuff, but you get my point) and he is superb from the front, a fine judge of pace. He is also pretty good around here in C2 handicaps – 5/19,6p, +28 SP in the last 5 years. We could probably back him blind in such races for the rest of his career and do ok. Before getting to the horse, the trainer… he is in form, 5/22,8p the last 30 days, 2/12,4p the last 14. They are going well. The horse.. well he is smart on his day and I find it interesting that he runs in a handicap here. He is 2/4 after breaks of 60+ days and has won after similar breaks. He will be fit enough to win if they want him to be. The trainer is also 6/30,9p with handicap debutants and given this one’s back class, he could win well here and have a fair bit in hand. He is also top on the Geegeez Speed ratings which is always a positive. I think he looks interesting here. Hopefully they make all but even if Spencer tracks anyone that goes past him, he should run his race. The market may well guide.

Mrs Grass – this is an awful race and I think the lead is Irving’s, if he wants it. And provided all the others run as they have been doing on recent runs. She was 4lb out the handicap the last day but went very close over CD. I think a repeat of that run puts her right in the mix here. She should be able to dictate and every other horse in here has plenty of questions also. If you were to look at her profile you may not touch her but at this level, being in form/fit counts for plenty. There is no excuse for a poor run from what I can see. Irving should play catch me if you can. Hopefully nothing does. Oh, and the tongue tie returns. I found that interesting. It hasn’t been worn since last November and given both her career wins have come when wearing it, that is another tick in the box. She should go well for a time. Maybe after the last something will have more in hand/class, but I will roll the dice to find out. Any money for the Candlish horse may be significant given his profile, he is the only really unexposed one in here. And Uriah Heep, 12s, could be a danger if he needed his last run…mark has fallen through the floor.

**

That is all for today. Good luck with any bets. Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

  1. Date & Title: 11th May Catterick 5f Nov

    4.25 Izzy Bizu, Royal Crown, Suanas
    3.75
    3.5
    3.25 Nisnas Alward, Capla Dancer,
    3
    2.75 Mistress Of Venice, Saella, Three Little birds
    2.5 Lady Anjorica
    2.25
    2

    Preview – With Capla Dancer carrying the extra 7lbs and 2to potential improvers looks too difficult to me.


    Date & Title: 11th May Chester 5f Mdn

    4.25 Dahik, Dragons Tail, Auntie Pam, Nobrassnolass
    3.75 Last Page, Milton Road, Porchy Party, Kat O’Strophic
    3.5
    3.25 Floss The Hoss
    3 Our Man In Havana
    2.75 Felisa
    2.5
    2.25
    2 Rusty Blade
    1.5 Haveoneyerself

    Preview – Very hard to get away from Dahik and Dragon’s Tail. Both of these looked mentally in need of the race on debut. They both have potential to improve, I hope for the sake of my post race ratings below that they finish in the correct order. It really depends who jumps best and gets the rail; with Franny Norton on a small one in stall one and these two in stalls 2 and 3 it should be a real tear up. Wild card is Jeremy Noseda’s Kat O’Strophic from 6. My notes suggest that when they have cost more than 60k (this one was 70k) they must be taken seriously, even more so with Buick up.
    Dahik the most likely winner as I just had the impression that Dragon’s Tail, although he ran well on debut, was a bit gawky and wouldn’t be best suited by Chester. However, no-one is better at getting them to jump than Richard Kingscote.
    I am hoping that Dahik wins this well to confirm my impression of the Doncaster race which is added below, but there is no value here for a bet.
    ‘This week for the first few races it was easy, small early season ready types mostly 60’s or lower but then suddenly at Doncaster there seems to be a field of better ones. Some of the good ones under-perform, some surprise me. It seemed to me that this was a better race and there should be at least 8 winners come out of it during the season. We shall see.’

    Prior race notes
    Dahik – Small but strongly made, a good Society Rock sprinter. Didn’t think he was ready to run as well as this as he looked a bit bulky. Develop well with time. 80
    Dragons Tail – Green in the prelims and looking overawed. Ok frame with the potential to get up to medium sized. Generally likeable good walker but far from ready to seriously compete. More mentally than physically and should go close nto. 72
    Auntie Pam – Clear now that the race she ran in at Wolverhampton was a bad one. Plain, small. 58
    Milton Road – Lower medium, compact and quite strongly made. Still a bit woolly and not fully tuned. Ran a competent race and should be competitive at a small track nto. 70
    Our Man In Havana – Chunky strong compact chap, carrying a bit of fat so not quite ready to give of his best. Slowly away from the widest draw and got behind, made up some ground but then ran out of puff late on. Improve and could find an early season race. 64
    Hugh

    1. It was not just that the size mattered here in that Dragon’s Tail was a size bigger than his rivals, Richard Kingscote got him out well and he fairly slaughtered the rest. Not much consolation in my comment that he should go well nto after his debut. Dahik ran a very poor race. Head scratcher for me.

      1. Yep- only explanation, bar them finding an issue later on, is that the last race took plenty out of him? Haven’t seen it but that is only thing I can think of, given only 12 days ago? Travelled ok just nothing under bonnet when squeezed, looked like jockey knew turning in that he was lacking spark, looked after. He will have other days.

  2. Hi Josh, do you mean the spacing? When I copy and paste into the comment box it seems to squish it all up. Is there a work around this?

    With Porchy Party, Last Page and Kat O’strophic out it looks to be a matter of who comes third to find any value. I think Milton Road looks most likely unless David Probert can find the key to Nobrassnolass, but from stall 10 that is a big ask.

    Hugh

    1. Yep, the spacing and the use of bold. Yep not sure why it does that, will be a formatting issue of some sort – it’s like that when I do similar for blog posts etc. I will have a work with my techie friend, am sure there is a fix of sorts. GL
      Josh

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