Members Daily Post: 12/05/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

FLAT

Lingfield 

None.

Chester

1.50-

Sound Advice (micro distance) 12/1 WON 12/1

Lat Hawill (micro distance) 20/1 UP

5.05 – Nabhan (4yo+, + micro class/age)  14 G3 16/1 UP

Nottingham

6.50 – House Of Commons (micro class) I3 10/1 UP

Ascot 

5.35 – Oceane (micro class) I3 6/1 2nd 

6.05 – Ertiyad (1st 2yo) 15/2 2nd (nose)

Ripon

7.05 –

Straightothepoint (all hncps+micro distance) H1,I1,G3 5/2 2nd 

Lathom (4yo+, +micro age) I3, G1 4/1 UP

7.40 – Lincoln Rocks (4yo+, + micro age) H3,I3,G3 11/2 UP

8.15 –

Medina Sidenia (micro class) G3 7/1 UP

Attention Seeker (micro class) H3 16/1

JUMPS

Market Rasen 

2.05 – Swinton Diamond (hncp hurdle) 10/1 WON 10/1>5/1 (15p R4, 8.5/1)

3.10 – Destinys Gold (all hncps+micro age) 2/1 UP

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Master Rating+Average Rating (M+A) Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 1/8,6p, +7) (Jumps: 7/47, +23) (total: 8/55, +30)

2.05 MR – Swinton Diamond – 1 point win – 10/1 (Bet365/SB/BetF) 9/1 (general) WON 10/1>5/1 (15p R4, 8.5/1)

It has been a bit of a trudge since the last winner… which was only 6 days ago, but it feels a lot longer. That’s the ‘value’ game and I have taken another stab here. The market may well guide here- I don’t like Hammond drifters, (not sure if there are stats to back that up, I suspect there may be) as they are shrewd and seem to know when their horses are bouncing/in races they expect them to go well in. Swinton Diamond is having his 3rd start for the yard and is lightly raced. There should be more to come at some point, this being only his 4th handicap hurdle start. He may well be useless but I am sure his canny trainer will win the odd egg and spoon race with him. What caught my eye here? Well, other than the fact that there should be more to come at some point, I liked the fact that he drops in trip here, quite markedly so. I just watched the video of his last run and it was interesting- down the back, approaching the last flight, he made up plenty of ground and nearly took it up. It was an impressive change of gear, for the level. I don’t know what happened then as they turned in, but it is possible that after 74 days off, he started to tire and also that the trip then started to stretch him. Breeding suggests this may be as far as he wants to go, plenty of flat blood in him, 7-14f.  I have in my mind that he will track the leaders here, and attempt that impressive turn of foot jumping the last. Here’s hoping. Trainer/jockey are 3/15,9p in handicap hurdles at the track and at a double figure price I will have a stab. Hopefully he is nibbled at. If he isn’t, I expect he will start to go backwards at some point in the race. Oh, and he has dropped 13lb in the two runs Hammond has had him, the canny bugger 🙂 He is probably just out of form, but I can’t help myself at that price.

That will do for bet of the day.

3.Any general messages/updates etc

CHESTER: 

NOTES: READ HERE>>>

Just the Micro Angles today…

4.05 – Cheerfilly (micro 1+2, 8/1<)

5.05 – Modernism (micro 3, 10/1<)(He isn’t trained by Fahey!)

5.05 – Gabrial’s Star (he is..)

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SATURDAY….

I will get some trends/stats for the Victoria Cup up on the free post, and for Members’ a look at the Swinton Hurdle from Haydock- with any luck there may be some decent stats/trends there.

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