Members Daily Post: 06/05/17 (complete)

All quals + ratings pointers + prices + Bet of The Day x5

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

**

 

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

(missed two on first run through, races times in red below)

FLAT

Goodwood

1.35 –

Perfect Summer (all hncps + micro runs) 25/1

Maestro Mac (all hncps) 11/1

2.40 – Make Music (micro going) I1 22/1

3.15 –

Boy In The Bar (all hncps) I3 20/1

Dark Shot (micro going) 6/1

 

Newmarket 

1.50 – Bancnuanaheireann (3yo+) 20/1

 

Thirsk

1.55 –

Danhill Desert (1st 2 yo) 12/1

Guzman (1st 2 yo) 3/1

2.30- Bouclier (micro runs)  H1

3.40 –

Dream Walker (micro runs) 40/1

Stipulate (micro runs) 33/1

4.15 – Midnight Malibu (micro distance+ 90 days) 9/1

5.25 –

Musharrif (micro class) 8/1

Excessable (micro distance) 3/1

Pea Shooter (micro runs) G3 8/1

 

Doncaster

5.15 –

Handsome Dude (4yo+) I3 7/1

The Commendatore (4yo+) 14/1

7.50 –

New World Power (all hncps + micro TJC/going) 9/4

Codeshare (4yo+) 14 I1 5/1

8.20 – Turning The Table (all hncps + micro going) I3, G3 3/1

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

4.30 –

Postbridge (all hncps) H1, I1 7/1

Katy P (micro class) 14,30  4/1

 

Hexham

6.35 –

Rouge Etsage (hncp hurdle) 14 12/1

Beyondtemptation (hncp hurdle) H3 11/2

8.35 –

Medal Of Freedom (all hncps + micro chase/age) 15/2

Silver Trix (hncp chase) 14  20/1

Seven Devils (micro class) I3 10/1

 

Bonus

4.05 Wex – Redmond Hall (track/all hncps) 12/1

5.10 Wex –

Cresus De Grissay (all hncps) 25/1

Tigroney (all hncps) 12/1

**

KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Master Rating+Average Rating (M+A) Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

A shame one of Friday’s four couldn’t get their heads in front but three of them seem to have run their race.

Bet of The Day Test…

(Flat: 0/4,3 places = -4 points)

(Jumps: 7/41, +29 points)

Flat 

1.35 Good – Maestro Mac – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) UP

4.15 Thirsk – Midnight Malibu – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 2nd 11/2

5.15 Donc – The Commendatore – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) WON 14/1>8/1

Jumps

4.30- Uttox – Postbridge – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP

6.35 – Hex – Rouge Et Sage – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)

 

**

Well, let’s see how this goes…

Maestro Mac – he comes here fit, assuming he comes on for the last run and he ran as if he will (ran well/led to around 1f out until fading). He takes a step up in trip here and gets a 1st time tongue tie- doing a couple of things differently. He is lightly raced and could lead here and in any case should be prominent. Trainer/jockey are 2/8,4p here in handicaps over distances where the trainer does well. Worth a stab at a double figure price I think.

Midnight Malibu – fitness is a question here and she may well need the run but aged four she could develop further this year and T Easterby can ready them- albeit many have needed it so far this season. She is 2/10,5p in handicaps, 3/7,6p C4 and there is a chance she leads/tries to make all. IF fit, she could stay there as there could be more to come this year and her best runs would put her in the mix. If she needs the run, then that is another point loaned back to the bookies.

The Commendatore- he is just thoroughly unexposed – 1/5,2p on the flat- and at 14/1 looks worth a stab. This is competitive but if the trainer wants them fit, they will be, and there could be plenty more to come this year. He made need the run, he may not be a C3 beast. He may have developed further over the winter and have a bit in hand. 14s for a roll of the dice.

Post Bridge- in form and unexposed, making handicap hurdle debut – trainer is 8/32,16p with handicap debutants and 9/34,19p with those he moves up in distance by 20% or more from last run. This one could also make all. And he is related to a few 3m+ beasts so could well relish this trip. At 7s, given he is unexposed, is worth a stab. Fit and in form which is always a bonus. And with the jockeys claim could have a bit in hand if improving for it.

Rouge Et Sage- just looks interesting enough at 14s for a trainer in fine form at the moment who can have big priced winners. Some market support is always welcome. This one is making his second start for the trainer having come from France , where he had some decent form. He travelled well for a long way LTO and may have needed the run- or will need longer to acclimatise. It could be he must have a bog but that is a bit of an unknown and this trip could be fine. He is just unexposed and a double figure price, and ran with some promise LTO.

No doubt something else at a price that  i have overlooked will bolt up but there we go. This is a test.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

Results: I am nearly there with my April/2017 analysis for end of main jumps season and will pull together a post over the weekend.  I need to do the work on EW/place % etc and that may well be complete on Monday. Jan was superb, Feb awful, March brilliant, April awful.

**

Who are we backing at Newmarket? Any fancies in the non handicaps/group races? Do share, we won’t judge if they are all still running the next day 🙂

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. sorry Josh , heads up my behind at moment .
    Saturdays , what was recommended follow?
    on your latest speak blog .
    was it all rating pointers or all qualifiers from prt 1?

    1. Hi Je,

      Well- the #1 strategy is still the only one I am 100% happy to recommend, as per the welcome note while Sats were good, caution was advised.
      I will post April’s results over the weekend but…

      All Quals on Sats

      • April: 75 bets / 5 wins / -38 BFSP
      • 2017 to date as end of April: 248 bets / 35 wins / 14% sr / +108 BFSP

      April was a bit rubbish all round on the jumps front.

      Saturday Ratings Pointers were 1/31,-27, taking All Sat ratings pointers to… 16/100, +19 BFSP.

      All Saturday’s, 10/1+ are now… 10/135, +66 BFSP

      And of course that is all just for the Jumps. And that all SAT 2017 to end April total is made up of a couple of monsters.

      Evidence is gathering for the Flat but I am not in a position to say definitely do X as yet.

      For now its #1, regardless of day, and then using any other approach you may take/your own views etc.

      Hopefully that is of some use. So, the backing ALL in section 1, or backing all 10/1+, has been profitable on Saturdays, time will tell if the same on the Flat.

      Josh

  2. Hi Josh,
    Still getting my head around these flat stats so a tentative addition to qualifiers.

    Newm 1.50 Bancnuanaheirann (3yo+) assuming Rowley at this time of year.
    Thirsk 4.15 Midnight Malibu (distance and LTO)

    Peeping over the parapet,
    Mike

    1. Indeed. With any luck patience will be rewarded! And hopefully I can make bet of the day a decent addition. Josh

  3. If Chrchil win it means he is superman horse
    my 3:35 Eminent twice cd winner here 11/2 next best Barney Roy i can see Al Wukair but first run in UK i am deliberating can Galapiat beat Seventh Heaven will be hard but he can do that at opener i think Next Stage has little more chance than Ballet Concerto

  4. new 2-20. i’m going for an old fav of mine Muthmir 10-1+, below par last season but looks like coming back to form
    new 2.55 . can’t see anything beating seventh heaven but 4/5 or worse is a bit short for me
    new 3-35. 2 x cd winner Eminent looks to be the one to take on Churchill and i’ll have a go at 7-1+
    nw 4-10. it’s both the m’s that interest me , frankie has chosen Mostahel 7-1 but the one he has passed over Mazyoun could be good ew value at 16-1+

  5. Eminent is the Dosage Index selection for 2K, with Barney Boy second and Churchill third? Eminent has a rating of 0.74, similar to Galileo Gold and Gleneagles, the last two winners. Al Wakair has a rating of 1.67, which they say suggests he’s an out-and-out miler, so it’s all a bit confusing. You take your pick.
    I have Barney Boy AP 16sew

    Mike

  6. My qualifiers for today

    FLAT
    Goodwood
    3.15 –
    Boy In The Bar (all hncps) I3, 22%, 7/2+ Price taken 22/1
    Dark Shot (micro going) 18% 9/2+ Price taken 13/2

    JUMPS
    Uttoxeter
    4.30 –
    Postbridge (all hncps) H1, I1, 25%, 3/1+ price taken 4/1
    Katy P (micro class) 14,30, 15%, 11/2+ price taken 7/1

    Hexham
    8.35 – Seven Devils (micro class) I3, 16% 5/1+ price taken 10/1

    Good luck

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