Free Daily Post: 06/05/17 (complete)

Thirsk Hunt Cup thoughts x2

TIPS

tbc (3m+ handicap chases/jumps, generally)

 

TEST TIPS (Flat Handicaps)

Running Total: 0/2,0p, -4 

 

3.40 Thirsk: Hunt Cup 

Heir To A Throne – 1 point EW- 9/1 (PP/BV) 8/1 (general) (10/1 general in morning>) UP

Bryouni – 1 point EW- 16/1 (general) UP*

Less said about that the better. 

**

Stats/Trends HERE>>>

Shortlist:

Not the strongest of profiles but decent pointers are horses aged 4-6, OR 86-91, 1-2 runs this season: That would leave just 4…

Calvados Spirit / Bryouni / Heir To A Throne / Rousayan

Other pointers are 0-6 career wins/1-5 handicap wins / ran in race worth X£ as per notes above/Not ran on AW LTO.

Heir To A Throne is the only one who ticks all of those boxes. He is also trained by K Ryan who has the best recent record in this race, as is Bryouni also. He comes here in form and could come on for that last run. He is lightly raced and runs up with the pace. He looks interesting. Ryan is in ok form also.

Bryouni .. well he is on my main shortlist and given the other big priced one is a NR it makes any decision a tad easier. He is 16s and there isn’t really a reason to not back him here- his last run may have been a tad disappointing but if it was a prep for this, then maybe that is an excuse. He ran ok to a point. He had a decent enough 3yo campaign and this is only the 14th run of his life. 8f could bring out more and he has course form. He looks interesting enough EW. This is a test section and I should trust my stats approach- ignoring it, picking another, only to see one bolt up at a price would be a bit of a downer.

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

5.40 Uttox – Sage Monkey (x2 angles) PU

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

5.40 Uttox – Sage Monkey (12/1<) PU

 

**

 

That is all for today.

Good luck with any bets.

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

    1. Barney Roy wins it, £1,000,000 to win. Put that on a slip and take it down to the bookies.

      We actually did it earlier this evening after an afternoon drinks session. We asked for a price and the young lady looked it up on her screen and wrote it on the slip. She asked if we had put too many noughts on, we said no. She then phoned head office but they sussed it as a wind up. Very funny though.

    2. Eminent is the Dosage Index selection for 2K, with Barney Boy second and Churchill third? Eminent has a rating of 0.74, similar to Galileo Gold and Gleneagles, the last two winners. Al Wakair has a rating of 1.67, which they say suggests he’s an out-and-out miler, so it’s all a bit confusing.
      I have Barney Boy AP 16s

      Mike

      1. Eminent was one of the cheaper Frankel prodigy I think? Has he the breeding for a Guineas?

  1. Good evening Josh,it might be worth adding Paddy Brennan to Paul Henderson chasers,he seems to be the go to man at present,where as in the past it was Tom O Brien,i had Minella Tweets at 8/1 this evening,it was 16/1 last night,but there might have been withdrawals

    1. Good point about brennan and henderson Gerry, shame I was on harry hunt! Think there was 4 withdrawn from that race tho. Could be worth following the Mcpherson horses over the summer months as last summer they went rather well.

  2. Quick question Josh or anyone else that may be able to assist….how do I find out where the stalls are positioned at each racecourse? My query relates to looking at the draw, I want to know which side of the track stall 1 is for example.

    1. Hi Joe… I believe stall 1 is now always up against the inside rail of said track. The BHA website should detail where any stalls are on the day of racing.
      If you took Ripon as an example… in a 20 runner spriny say, stall 1 would be against the far rail (inside)as you looked, stall 20 against the stand side. If a 10 runner race and the stalls were ‘stand side’ then 10 would be hard up against the nearside rail,with stall 1 marooned up the middle of the track.

      Hope that makes sense. And I think thats correct.

          1. Brilliant Josh, makes it easier to look at the GG pace map knowing which side of the track they’re on.

  3. Twice this week I have mentioned value plays to beat what I thought were weak favourites. I had seen the favourite Shobrom yesterday who was tiny and My Little Pony on Thursday had a suspect name. Both were beaten, I think by the second favourite, unfortunately I did not pick the right ones to oppose with.

    Today I am using the same logic to oppose two winners I have not seen in the 5.50 at Doncaster. First a Hannon horse, Mutanaaseq on the grounds that if it was sent to Bath on firm it must be a lesser light, although it did look to win fairly easily, but did it beat anything much? Secondly a Fahey maiden winner from Beverley, Bengali Boys who looked to win well on debut, I am supposing here that it was Richard Fahey’s consummate skill in readying them fto over 5f that won the race rather than it being a better one. The time was not special and a second slower than the other division. That said the 3rd Starlight Mystery did win an egg and spoon race at Brighton this week.

    Anyway, my selection is Jim Rockford available at 6’s in may places. Notes on his first run are below. He should improve a lot for his run at Newbury, he ran green there, too fresh and hampered, yet still managed to finish off ok behind a couple of decent ones. Caveats are that he may be one who refuses to settle in which case his chances are reduced and also he is a flashy chestnut with white socks which can sometimes deceive the eye making the animal look bigger and more athletic than they really are.

    Jim Rockford – Top end of small but a different bulkier model than Gold Town. Looked to be a good walker. Spent the first 2.5f fighting for his head yet still finished off with enthusiasm. 79

    If he is a 79 horse, he should go very close here so looks the value to these eyes, particularly with Danny Tudhope up.

    Hugh

  4. My Saturday fun bet ITV Pick 7

    1:50 Newmarket Ballet Concerto
    2:05 Goodwood Dubka
    2:20 Newmarket Washington Dc
    2:40 Goodwood Ice Age
    2:55 Newmarket Seventh Heaven
    3:15 Goodwood Boy In The Bar
    3:35 Newmarket Eminent

    🙂

  5. Todays selections:

    I like Ornate, 2.20N, open to improvement I think as it has been slow to come along and there may be more to come.

    I like Ballet Concerto, 1.50N, to open things up at the meeting with a win. I think that he has the best profile of these.

    I have already mentioned Barney Roy, 3.35N, Godolphin spotted something in him and his last run was pretty good.

    The Moore stable think Art of Swing, 1.35G, has more to come and can take this race.

    Good luck today.

  6. I know its easy to say now, but I asked for 18.0 for Marsha in the 2.20 at Newm at 13.40 pm today with 5.3 TBP and 3.7 4TBP (all got matched…yippeee). My only bet of the day too….They don’t happen like that too often do they. I did want to post on here at the time but was in a rush to take my lad to a party. Came home at around 5ish expecting the usual, a disappointing 5th place by a nose.

    I started with a shortlist of Marsha, Cotai Glory, Priceless and Alpha Delphini. I thought the other 3’s most recent runs were weaker due to the lack of winners from the races, Cotai Glory trainer Charles Hills appeared to be dipping out of form as well. So it was easy in the end!!

    1. Well done Chris – yes next time please don’t let life get in the way of posting pre race haha. She did that very well, esp with the penalty. She will take plenty of stopping wherever she turns up this season.
      The Commendatore won at 14s for ‘bet of the day’ test in Members post, with one more to come (drifting, not expecting much now) so it’s been a good day- only takes one good winner. Think my Thirsk fancies may still be running!

      1. Good to see a good day all round.
        Time for a glass of something with a toast to your posts.
        One day I’ll sign up to your Members Club again just as soon as I get my project finished with Powerpivot and have more time to follow….learning that DAX stuff ain’t easy for me!!

  7. Well done on the 14/1 Josh,the BOTD is probably back at a more realistic level now,once your getting 10%+ on these will be doing just fine

  8. My day just got a whole lot better,placed a cash bet on Lord Landen at Uttoxeter,16/1,had to win at some stage.Crinklies to collect

    1. Ah yep he did that well, got an easy lead, battled on well. Yep just pleased to land a decent priced Flat bet- hopefully the ‘unexposed+price’ will work well moving forwards. Don’t need many winners at those prices for decent profit over time… that bet of the day test now a combined… 8/50, +35 points. Would take that every 50 bets!

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