Members Daily Post: 05/05/17 (complete)

post complete… all sorts today…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

Flat 

Chepstow

1.20 –

Barizan (4yo+) G3 16/1 UP

Mazaaher (4yo+) H3, I3 I1 6/1 2nd 10/1

4.20 –

Urban Space (all hncps + micro TJC) G1 8/1 UP

Akavit (all hncps) 10/3 WON 3/1

4.50- Taroum (all hncps + micro TJC) 18/1 UP

 

Musselburgh

3.30 – Green Light (4yo+) H3, I1, G3 6/4 UP

4.30- Vallarta (micro going) H3, I3 9/2 3rd

5.00- Adventureman (micro going) H3, G3  8/1 2nd 

 

Jumps

Fontwell

4.55-

Soulsaver (all hncps) H3 9/2 3rd 8/1

Blake Dean (hncp hurdle + micro class) 15/2 UP

5.25 – The Geegeez Geegee (all hncps + hncp chase) I3 6/1 Fell

5.55 – Be Daring (hncp hurdle) 7/1

8.05 – Filemon (NHF) 14,30  10/1

 

Bonus 

5.45 – Loose Ends (track-hncp hurdle debut) 9/2 UP

6.50- Cairnshill UP / Ashjan UP  (track – both hncp hurdles, former also micro age) 33/1

**

KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Master Rating+Average Rating (M+A) Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet Of The Day… (test)

(Flat… 0/1,1p, -1)

(Jumps…7/40, +30 points)

 

Flat 

4.20 Chepstow- Urban Space– 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP

4.30 Muss – Vallarta – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen) 3rd 

5.00- Muss – Adventureman – 1 point sin – 8/1 (bet365) 15/2 (gen) 2nd 

 

Urban Space- well it’s a bit mad for me to probably be most confident about an 11 year old but he was in the form of his life last year, and on his second run of the season in 2016 lost narrowly. He should come on from his last run. In flat handicaps he is 4/10,9p at Chepstow (a run for money assured??) 1/2,1p over CD and 5/13,10 places in class 6. He is also 3lb below his last winning mark albeit that doesn’t take account of claims. He has won off 62 though and in any case, an ability to stay in a race like this is far more important than a pound here or there. He stays. He is fit. He should run his race. I am not sure I can say that about many others in here. The only slight niggle is the yard form but at 8s, in the context of this race, I will dive in. If he runs a shocker then clearly that may be the reason. He looks solid.

The Vaughan horse… well he may run well but the trainer is 0/20,2p with flat horses returning 60+ days off- small numbers, but big in the context of his price. Akavit- well he went down narrowly for the stats LTO, agonisingly so having been 8s in the morning. He received a perfect ride there for me- dictated from the front, slowed down, kicked- really no excuse for me and I can’t touch him today. He may win. So be it.

So, the old boy will do here. I should get a run for my money and most others in here have a question or two to answer. He will keep staying on up this straight and hopefully that will be enough.

Vallarta – maybe I will be punished for going under my general 6/1, 7/1 price points for ‘bet of the day’ but if one of the Carr runners wins, I didn’t want to be on the wrong one! Ruth’s horses generally run themselves into form and it is hard to detect patterns. This one is certainly doing just that and will apreciate this step back up in trip. He races prominently and should be able to get out and track the pace, or may even try and take it up himself. You generally get a run for your money with him and provided he takes to the course, he should give his all again. 4s just about seemed ok.

Adventureman– I couldn’t quite leave him at 8s here- He doesn’t run well too often- well, he hasn’t had loads of racing but is 1/15 on the flat. That win came here, and he is 1/4,2p at the track. That could count for plenty. He is 1/2,1p in C6 handicaps and takes a drop in class from recent runs. His only win was in May. This could be his time of year. He is only 5. And there was one last piece in the puzzle- I think he will try and make all, and as long as Joe Fanning rides his mount in a way he is usually ridden, he could do so again (hopefully he doesn’t want to make all today, as is his want around tracks like this) But, I think he could dictate. It is his first try over this trip, 1f or so further than he normally goes but he shapes as if he is worth a try over it and IF he can get an easy lead, that will help. At 8s there is enough there to roll the dice. Cosmic Ray finished ahead of him two starts ago, but this is a very different track and you never know. 8s seems a tad generous to me.

 

Jumps

4.55 Font- Soulsaver – 1 point win – 5/1 PP 9/2 (gen) 3rd 8/1

You are always learning in this game and I am kicking myself for not going with Sendiym yesterday – I had my ‘young is best’ blinkers on and when combined with fact there was another qual in the race, decided to dodge it. Any users of GG Gold Instant Expert tab will have noted his decent chance and when I dipped into HRB after he won (cardinal sin,lazy as I didn’t do that before) and used the profile tool, I was annoyed. He was 3/5 at Sedgfield in handicap hurdles, and ticked numerous other boxes- and he won the same sodding race last year. 3rd run back after a break, chasing LTO, Hughes up, handicap mark fine, etc etc- 7/1. Missed. You need missed winners like that every now and again to jolt you out of analysis slumber and everything today has had the Geegeez + HRB treatment. Cue 0/4!

Anyway, back to this horse…

He is unexposed and having his second run in a handicap. Add to the tracker as he is surely bolting up in a handicap one day. I hope that is today. Honeyball is 7/21,11p, +27 with horses moving in distance by 20% or more from last run. Decent. He knows when to try a new trip to improve a horse. He is also 3/13,9p with horses having their second start in a handicap. (those Geegeez in card trainer snippets are useful) Now, I don’t know what to make of his last run- it wasn’t say a staying on performance from the back where you would think a step up is needed. He hit the front and then seemed to tire a bit I think- but he was beaten by an inform horse at the time, and old boy who has won since I think.

What has caught my eye is the tongue tie… he wore it the last day. He doesn’t today. He has had 53 days of… hmm… has he had a wind op?? Possibly. Maybe his wind was a reason for his effort near the end LTO. I don’t know. In any case, this is a weak race, and the step up could bring about improvement. He may not stay of course. But Honeyball has been a decent judge of stamina in his charges. 9/2 or so is just about ok. I suspect he will finish unplaced or win like a 6/4 shot.

**

 

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

Yesterday’s note…

VERY IMPORTANT- PLEASE READ >>>

You may have noticed some new symbols next to the qualifiers, as explained in the updated ‘Key’ above. With the kind permission of Mr Inform Racing (Ian Welch) I have added his unique speed ratings into the mix. (I1,I3)I could test these in private but there ins’t much fun in that really and you may as well benefit from their success.  The Top 3 in Ian’s Master+Average column for speed ratings average around a 56% win strike rate in handicaps- of course that’s if you backed all three in any said race. But, that is decent.

With any luck they will operate in a similar way, or even better, than Dr Peter May’s Speed ratings. (Geegeez Speed, G1/G3)

The #1 advised strategy will remain as it is at the moment, until any official update. We need some evidence from live play.

As I have said previously with the flat stats, we will know much more in a few weeks time- however it looks like backing the lot may tick along in a similar way to the jumps, which is our foundation. With any luck the ratings pointers do the same job, or even better, than they have on the jumps. I will add them into the results recording from now on.

You are free to use them how you please but it may be wise to ignore them until their is further evidence. However, these ratings clearly work as Ian’s service has been around for a number of years. There is plenty of interesting content on Ian’s website/blog and you can check that out HERE>>>

I have no plans on adding more ‘ratings’ to the team.

Any questions etc then do fire away.

**

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4. Something To Read 

1.Darran Pearce Cheltenham Hunter Chase Meeting Preview: READ HERE>>> *

*this was emailed to his members and will be sent out to the free email list/blog at around Lunchtime. The Hunter chase crowd seem to know their stuff so if you decide to go with anything it may be best to take a price as some of them may be well backed. 

2.Update on Blessed To Empress:…

Emailed out to Syndicate Members…

After her earlier winner in the afternoon at Nottingham, Amy had a race against time to make it to our race. Fortunately, she arrived when the runners were in the parade ring, however, this meant Lemos had to saddle Blessed in the pre-parade ring, which wasn’t the plan. Blessed showed a little bit of her cheeky character, bashing her head on one of the stable doors. She also seemed a little fractious in the parade ring, with inexperienced horses this has to be expected. Amy, however, is very detailed in her process and once Lemos was on board Blessed seemed to switch on and understand what was expected. 
Feedback –  She was a little un easy with stalls entry and we may look at doing some more work with her around this to prevent any problems in the future.
Lemos planned to be handy, but not necessary lead. After a slightly slow start due to sitting back a little in the stalls, she quickly picked up her stride and knowing we are likely to stay further, he made the call to dictate. We ended up controlling the race and winning comfortably. Lemos (compared to a couple behind) was not hard on our filly, giving her four gentle reminders and easing up close home. Overall, a great experience for her. Lemos reported it actually took an age to pull her up. She came back to the winner’s enclosure hardly looking like she had been in a race. Both great signs for the future.
Amy reported Blessed is fine this morning and has taken her race well. She will now have a well-earned rest for a few days in the paddocks, She will then begin light work from Saturday.
It was great to meet up with some new and old faces last night, hopefully, we will more exciting times ahead. We certainly made an impression on Chelmsford last night!
We will be in touch next week with plans. For now, let’s all dream about what the future may hold.

**

That is all for today.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. hi josh
    i was just reading through hughs 2yo scripts
    there realy a good read ..could you put them alltogether on the blog
    i think ive mist some eailer posts
    thanks russ

    1. Hi Russ, you can find previous posts in the free reports and systems tab above, at top of blog.
      Josh

  2. Vallarta Adventureman both and ew double
    3yo at Muss 3.00 Seduce Me 4.00 George Reme 8/1 7/1 and ew double

  3. Morning all
    This week after 4 days I’m showing a profit of +5.77 points, So it’s +20.39 points profit after 11days.
    Early days for the test still though.

    My qualifiers
    Flat
    Chepstow
    1.20 – Mazaaher (4yo+) H3, I3 20%, 4/1 price taken 13/2
    Musselburgh
    4.30- Vallarta (micro going) H3, I3 30%, 5/2 price taken 9/2

    Good luck

    1. Mazaaher…should have won the race comprehensively…..definitely down to the jockey the loss….Poaitioned badly…left the horse there…Clashed and was nearly knocked over the rail, took it into traffic….eventually Mazaaher was taken off the rails and picked up so lovely…but far to late, but came through to 2nd…2 lengths…
      I had 10s…..But definitely one for the tracker…. I hope another jockey rides though.

      Tony Mc.

  4. Hi Josh,

    Is not Quantum Dot a Stats Pack qualifier in 2.50 at Chepstow ?

    Also the ground at Musselburgh is being described as Good to Firm,
    Good in places, so do the two Ruth Carr Bet of the Day selections
    strictly qualify ?

    1. Hi Stu,

      Going at Muss was Good last evening, and was ‘good’ on HRB this morning – and as such they will count officially in results. That happens every now and then with the going stats, that’s the way it is- I have to make a call at some point, by 10am, and they will officially qualify- certainly the going is no excuse for either horse!

      Quantum Dot- that is a veteran’s race, and is a ‘6yo+’ handicap which I have stripped out where they did exist- all stats for 3yo+, and/or 4yo+ , 6yo+ is a sep category.

      But, nothing stopping you from having a look, as clearly a track trainer targets with handicappers but will not ‘officially’ count – he will probably bolt up now.

      Josh

  5. The gamble that you alluded might happen on Ashjan in one of the earlier updates might be taking shape, a bit of blue for it now on Oddschecker

    1. Yep, well it certainly won’t be our money as no movement before lunchtime. He needs to be backed, I won’t expect much if he doesn’t, as with the other one also. All hncp hurdle winners here been under 10/1, albeit a 16/1 shot went close. But, would want to see something. He could just be very moderate! We shall see.

        1. yep, and ones like this are easier enough to spot really – I won’t expect too much, plenty left in the pot after his last winner here which was a massive price also. They can’t all go in but with any luck one of them will do the business!

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