TIPS
none.
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
7.30 –
Im Still Waiting (12/1< guide)
Hughesie (12/1< guide)
A Perrett – AW (12/1<)
3.40 Ling – Russian Reward
**
Horses Of Interest…
6.20 Clonmel – Ruler Of France- 15/2 (general) UP 8/1
Didn’t move in the market, and you would have liked to see some money. Lead, although pestered, not that it mattered. Ran as if he needed it in the end. No significance to that jockey booking at all!
I can’t leave this one unbacked- one of those where it seems too good to be true – and they never go well. But, using the various tools within Geegeez Gold he stands out somewhat.
The ‘way in’ is his trainer- 4/9,6p with horses returning after 60+ days in the last 2 years. Having dived into HRB I can see that with flat runners returning 121-365 days he is 3/4. He can get them fit. As simple as that. Hopefully he has got this one fit and the intention is for him to run his race. The fact he has booked the best flat jockey in Ireland? / and some would say Top 2-5 in the UK/Ireland, is some indication.
Pace- well that also caught the eye. He likes to make all and the race is there for him to do that I think, if he wants to. The odd other one has led, but has also been held up, and if Smullen is forceful early on, I think he can dictate.
The horse- well he has solid form on good to firm and over this distance. No problems there. Infact he is 2/2 over this exact distance on the turf. Class if fine, he is 1lb below his last winning mark and doesn’t have too many miles on the clock.
The only question is fitness- he returned here last season after a similar break for this yard and may well have needed it. He went off at 12s, so the market was some guide. Maybe he is a horse that just needs the run, regardless of the trainer’s ability to ready them. The market may well guide here- any drift and I will know my fate. I just wondered why you would bother booking the main man if he needs the run. Especially as K Leonard, who rode him the last twice, is on an outsider.
I won’t go mad, but if he is tuned up fully here, he should be out-running these odds.
**
That is all for today.
Good luck with any bets.
Josh
19 Responses
Sorry I put the Wilsterman v Palmeries bet out so late yesterday
Pete
Nice Peter, thanks.
Nice one thanks
Nice tip, thanks.
Good shout Peter.. Thanks.
Tony Mc.
2.00 Redcar, looks like basement stuff. I am always wary of 2yos with names like Our Little Pony, if they are called little or tiny they usually are so despite breeding and stable would not be fancying this.
I saw Tie Em Up Tel on his first run when he was unsteerable, he was entered at Bath a couple of weeks ago and did not go. My notes said strong back end and worth another go on a straight course, he might be a bit of value as a fun bet.
Hugh
Our little Pony win or lose is the wrong price.
April foal and as Hugh says must be called little pony for a reason.
Fahey is the Juvenile trainer in form hence the price
but straight into a seller shows the horses ability and while she may win by default
because the others prove to be totally useless
prices around 11/8 don’t appeal.
I have a little question every time I am thinking of having a decent bet at a fairly short price.
does it pass the last grand test?
if you were having a terrible time and have lost heavily and then had time
to calm down.
When you have calmed down you decide to have your last £1000 on one short priced horse.
would the bet you are considering be that £1000?
so would you consider having your last £1000 on My little Pony
I think it is highly unlikely(unless Richard Fahey himself had told you in confidence that it was a certainty)
so if you are not prepared to have your last £1000 on why would you consider it a bet?
The 3.30 at Redcar is a 7f claimer and I am surprised that Manatee Bay is Favourite
he has a 0-6 record over 7f and at 7 years of age is unlikely to suddenly develop stamina and while he is joint top rated he hasn’t got that much in hand against 4 horses who all have proven winning form
over the trip.
LETS TWIST would be a confident selection but he has given trouble at the start
a few times and can be slowly away.
if starting on terms he is the likely winner but backing him is like backing horses like Labaik
It can be all over before it starts
CAPOLAVORO is rated 8 lbs behind MANATEE BAY but is fit has won twice over the distance
and his 5lb claiming rider evens it up a bit, only 6 year old and put in to be claimed for £10,000
so connections don’t want to ship him out at a cheap price but at 11/4 is priced to his chances
Cabal is an interesting one as she has won over c/d and has the excellent David Allan in the saddle
now 10 which will keep the price honest, 2nd last time in a Beverley handicap
shows she is in good form.
she will run her race so goes to the race with every chance
she is the dependable horse in the race who may or may not be outrun by younger legs.
Black Dave is the key to the race for me, if he goes from the front and makes it a true test (highly likely)then I think Manatee Bays chances will be very low
Manatee is a 6f horse and if they go a slow pace he wins but Cabal, Black Dave and Capolavaro
have all won over a mile or more so it wouldn’t be in any of their interests to go a slow gallop
setting it up for the favourite.
SUMMARY
without Knowing if Lets Twist will consent to break on terms
it is difficult to back a horse with maximum confidence
but with three horses who have won over a mile or further in the race it would be stupid
of all of them to go a slow gallop to suit the 6f horse MANATEE BAY
so I expect at least one of them (Most likely Black Dave) to go for it
if that is the case I just can’t see the favourite lasting home
and he could be out with the washing
with only 7 runners I am laying MANATEE BAY win, 2 places, 3 places and even 4 places
he is 2/5 to be in the first 3 but I can see him as far back as 5th if falls apart in the last furlong chasing a strong gallop as he simply isn’t that far ahead in the ratings to handle the last furlong
Great summary Pete.
2.40 at Lingfield the favourite Flowers on Venus looks rock solid
as he is top rated, won its last two races
handles course and distance ticks about every box tickable
but will be odds on and no real leverage in the price.(pass the £1000 test?)(no way)
The angle that interest me is the market without Flowers on Venus and
the match bet between Varsovian and Quatrieme ami
and in both cases QA is favoured over Varsovian but my money will be on Varsovian
a six furling course and distance specialist Varsovian will almost surely run to form
QA has shown no inclinations of getting todays distance(6 furlongs) to date,(0 from 5 and no places) so I think over this trip it will see Varsovian finish in front of QA despite being the worst horse of the two on ratings.
Flowers on Venus won from the front last time so should there should be enough pace in the race
to give the advantage to the 6f horse.
in fast run races serial losers at a distance who have only ever won over shorter trips
rarely last home.
So the formula is fairly straight forward look for a horse
who has solid winning form and is one of the highest rated in the race
but is a multiple loser over today trip which is further than any of its previous winning form.
once you have found a possible check that there are previous distance winners in the field
who go from the front.
A 5 furlong horse can win over a mile if they jog the first three furlongs but
if they go a decent gallop early the 5f horse will be tailed off.
it may seem that non stayers would have no chance as the track get stiffer
but that sometime can be wrong because the stiffness of the track can sometimes
make the jockeys worry about their horse lasting the trip and they go a crawl first few furlongs and
give the advantage back to horse who are better at shorter distance
If I was doubtful about a horse getting home at Beverley with its uphill finish I would be strongly against it if in the opposition there was a horse who had won over c/d making all
QA ran as expected and fell back in the final furlong to finish 3rd
shame that Varsovian didn’t read the script and ran well below form and finished 4th
I think my message was heeded as MANATREE BAY was beaten out of sight
and drifted to a massive price by the off
was 2/5 to be placed first 3 on my first message but was odds against come
post time
Sorry about VARSOVIAN.
QA ran 3rd but still beat the solid horse which was a shame
3 minutes before the race and our Little Pony is 2/1 to lay
so if you had laid it early at 2.4 you could have assured an easy profit
Does anyone know where I can get the latest handicap mark for destinys gold please
Still 112 isn’ it? Do they put horses up that fell/BD etc LTO- certainly too early for capper to say he would have won. Be surprised if he went up.
Mark hasn’t be updated on BHA site… http://www.britishhorseracing.com/race-info/horses/horse/#!/2172773
Josh
According to the racing post website it is still 112 over hurdles (118 over fences) although he only ran on the 1st so if he does go up surely it would be on Monday. They do put horses up for falling although they don’t like putting them up too much since they want to give them a chance to win. Something Phil Smith mentioned at the Cheltenham Preview evening when talking about Might Bite who went up 4lbs for falling at Kempton although he thought he was a 160 horse so would have put him up 12lbs if it wasn’t for the fall. What A Good Night went up 7lbs for falling in 2015 and still chinned my pick NTO 🙁 . My personal view is anything which goes up for falling is still likely well treated assuming there are no mental scars.
Yep- but he was coming from behind- not as like he was a fence clear, or a few lengths in front. I have no idea how the capper could deem he was going to win/ahead of his mark, at that point in the race – still a few horses in front of him. Yep we shall see on Monday, won’t have been re-assessed yet, good point.
You’re probably right would be a bit harsh but we will see Monday. (was just commenting on the “Do they” part of the post)
yep it was a good point, my initial reaction was that they don’t – but as you point out, they clearly do! Definite question for ‘ask the handicapper’ if he gets raised. But yep he won’t be missed in the market next time.
Can you keep me informed on Monday lads