Members Daily Post: 21/04/17 (complete)

Addition to 5.45, + prices + bet of the day…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

Jumps 

Fontwell

1.50 –

Full (all hncps+ hncp h) H3 9/4

Blake Dean (hncp hurdle) G3 16/1

Bad Boy Du Pouldu (micro runs this season) G1 11/2

4.30 – Lake Chapala H3, G1 6/4

 

Ayr

2.40 –

Lycidas (all hncps+ hncp hurdle + micro distance) H3 7/1

Azuri (hncp hurdle) H1 11/4

3.50 –

Warriors Tale (all hncps) H3 13/2

The Grey Taylor (micro age) 22/1

4.50 –

Jessber’s Dream (all hncps) 7/1

Debdebdeb (hncp hurdle) 11/2

5.25 – Jac The Legend (micro age) G1 18/1

 

Southwell

5.15 –

Gorran Haven (all hncps) G3 9/1

Fuhgeddaboudit (hncp chase) 10/1

5.45 – Elkstone (all hncps) H3, G3 (late addition) 3/1

7.45 – Smiley (NHF) 50/1

 

Flat

Newbury 

2.30 – Start Rider (going) 6/1

 

Bath

5.30 – Akavit (4yo+) G3, H3 8/1

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of the Day (TEST.. running total… 6/33, +29 points)

5.15 South – Gorran Haven – 1 point win – 9/1 (bet365/WH) 8/1 (gen)

This ‘test’ section is my attempt to use my own stats + my subjective judgement, to try and focus in on a horse (often none,sometimes 2) that look most interesting to me on the day. Being a decent price is important and really I should try and home in on those that are not covered by the #1 advised strategy. I also want to focus on the more unexposed horses, those that are therefore open to more improvement at some point, and who may be ‘doing something different’, and therefore a reason for improvement. It is also a good process to go through as it improves my own thinking and with any luck my skill-set over time. Nothing like flogging yourself in public to improve your approach!

With that said, onto Gorran Haven. Now, if he goes off 11.00 or bigger on BFSP he will become a #1 strategy selection. He wasn’t 10/1+ this morning when posting quals. This is only his 5th run over fences and his second in a handicap. He takes a step up in trip by half a mile and gets cheekpieces. Those three things, given his price of 9/1, make him of interest for me. Backing that type over time should see us doing just fine, and we have found a few like that with similar profiles already, as well as me bottling a couple- no idea why, this is a sodding test section! With more bottle this test section could be another 25 points up or so I reckon. Anyway.

So, there are reasons why this horse ‘could’ improve on that last run. He did look out-paced but rallied well enough. Decent ground seems fine. He is just an unknown quantity. He may just be a thinker, a slow boat, and not very good. But, that’s why you want a price, and we get that here. If he is unsteady in the market that will be one point I may never see again. Another one ‘loaned’ to the bookies for the time being. I would like to see him being backed. Maybe this step up in trip/headgear is just a desperate attempt to find improvement.

Others…

Well, i pondered Jessber’s Dream- but have left her. She is unexposed enough I suppose – takes a step up in trip + gets first time blinkers. So, hits the ‘doing something different’ idea. But, she has run over 25f at Kempton and that run suggested she didn’t stay. This will also be livelier ground than she has faced before I think. I am a bit on the fence. Maybe they have tinkered with her wind etc. It could be Paul just had space in his horseboxes and thought he may as well run her. I don’t think you could say she looks that well handicapped either. There could be a few in here lurking. And Jonjo’s could be decent. Knowing my luck she will now romp home, having had a wind op, relishing the ground and distance!

There isn’t anything else, not already covered by a ratings pointer say, and at the current odds, that stood out to me.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

Trainer Track Profiles: Summer Stats – Members Discount 

As you may, or may not know, as a Member you get a chunky discount on my two main stats packs, TTP Jumps and TTP Flat. For general sale I have bundled the Flat and the Summer Jumps together to create a ‘Summer Stats’ pack which non members will be charged £27 (+vat).

You already have access to the Summer Jumps for free: That is HERE>>> 

The TTP Flat will cost Members £8 (+vat), so £9.60 total. 

YOU CAN GET YOUR DISCOUNTED COPY HERE>>>

(ClickBank will email you a receipt within which should be a download link) 

This is only one of two reports I will charge extra for, as part of your members package, and of course it is optional. That is just down to the time that those two main stats reports take to compile. Of course I post the qualifiers as part of your subscription but this is for those of you who want your own copy and who want any insurance in case I get run over by a bus or something. 

Any questions, fire away. 

**

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. Hi Josh….sorry to be a pain but I’ve tried to e-mail you per your request, but postmaster admin at outlook asks me to ask you to inform your Email admin that your domain isn’t properly registered at you Domain Registrar…..and as such are refusing to deliver my mail to you.

    What a pain in the rear……Don’t shoot the messenger Josh…lol.

    Tony Mc.

  2. Josh what about Peppay Le Pugh 6-45 Southwell , was H1,G3 yesterday obviously withdrawn to run in this today, worth a punt?

    1. Yep, I mean in terms of a trainer behaviour angle it would stack up- if having looked at entries/likely oppo they fancied this race more. Not the biggest odds in the world but he is H1, G3 in this race, to boost your confidence. Looks a weak race.

      1. Morning Josh lad

        The odd for 14:40 Ayr are wrong way round 😉 Azzuri 11/4 general and Lycidas is 7/1 just trying to keep you on your toes 😉

        1. Morning, ah yes, so they were. You can join Mike in the ‘keeping me on my toes’ club. Think I may need to try my own 1st time blinkers soon!! 🙂

  3. This is an idea that I’ve been messing around for a few weeks now, I think it’s time to start a proper test.
    Taking all the qualifiers against stats the pack/ratings, I’m going through them to see which I believe are the best value if any, what is the minimum odds I will take and what kind of chance I believe the horse has as got.
    For example 1.50 Fontwell
    The only horse that is near the value I want is Blake Dean 16/1 as of writing, but the minimum price I would want to take for value is 18/1. So as he is 16/1 I have two options, first wait to see if he drifts out and take a price or use Josh’s set and forget method with the RP +10’s ie minimum odds you will take at BFSP.
    When I post them up the % by their name is the chance of winning I believe the horse has.
    For this test there are no minimum odds as long as I believe it as value.
    I’m going to use a 200 points bank at very small £2 per point.
    Hope this makes sense; it does in my head anyway haha 
    Here we go.
    Fontwell
    1.50 –
    Full 1% 95/1
    Blake Dean 5% min 18/1
    Bad Boy Du Pouldu 4% min21.5/1
    4.30 – Lake Chapala 48% min 5/4

    Ayr
    2.40 –
    Lycidas 21% min 4/1
    Azuri (hncp hurdle) 65% 9/4
    3.50 –
    Warriors Tale 7% min 14/1
    The Grey Taylor 5% min 21/1
    4.50 –
    Jessber’s Dream 4% min 10/1
    Debdebdeb 4% min 24/1
    5.25 – Jac The Legend 4% min 20/1

    Southwell
    5.15 –
    Gorran Haven 10% min 9/1
    Fuhgeddaboudit 9% min 11/1
    5.45 – Elkstone 18% min 4/1
    7.45 – Smiley 2.5% min 40/1

    Flat
    Newbury
    2.30 – Start Rider 6.5% min 16/1

    1. Good luck Gavin, I will watch with interest! anything that isn’t 1 point win does give me a headache mind haha.

      Just to clarify one point, mainly as I forever live in fear that the #1 strategy isn’t understood…

      Blake Dean is a qualifier on the #1 strat as he was 10/1 or bigger on morning prices, those I put next to the horse. His BFSP could be 6/1, and he would still qualify because he was 10/1 or bigger this morning.

      IF he were under 10/1 this morning, then the only way he would qualify on the #1 strategy was IF his BFSP was then 11.00 or bigger.

      I think you get that, but it was the way you wrote it!

      Josh

      1. Yeah Josh I get that I didn’t make it clear alot all 🙂 , what I meant is if I can’t get the my min odds say with Blake Dean at 18/1 with the firms then I’ll BFSP min odds of 18/1.

    1. Yea, annoying.. but all about the long term. Pleased the ‘value eyes’ are working, if you can regularly back 3/1 shots at 8s/9s your betting bank will only go one way over time. Been a few big gambles for us in recent days that haven’t gone in,couple gone close. It is more annoying as you go into the race more expectant! No excuses for him there. travelled well, in perfect position. That is what he is I think. Maybe in time he may strengthen a bit. He will win the odd weak race no doubt. That wasn’t the best of races mind, although maybe decent enough for the track.

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