Free Daily Post: 22/04/17 (Tcomplete)

TIPS + Preview Scottish National trends/stats + ‘shortlist’…

 

Scottish Grand National Tips

Another Hero – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) (18/1 WH) UP

Shotgun Paddy – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) UP

Trustan Times – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP

Premier Bond – 1 point win – 11/1 (WH/SJ) 10/1 (gen) UP

That my friends, didn’t go to plan. Another Hero gave me some excitement as he travelled so well through this- nothing there when asked, either not good enough or doesn’t have the stamina. Part of me is pleased Cogry didn’t win, that would have been a sickener given my personal history with him. Vicente has run a stormer and I wasn’t that close to him, I can live with him winning at 10s. I suppose if you ignore the fall LTO he was an obvious won given he won it last year! I wasn’t near him. I suppose he was always going to be fresh having fallen at the 1st in the big one LTO. Trustan Times was keen enough, made a few errors which told near the end. Shotgun Paddy was a punt and the headgear clearly didn’t work and maybe the ground was lively enough. Premier Bond – well he jumped off in a good position but went backwards soon enough. Strange run. Maybe he had a shocking journey up but he just never went a yard after the first. Think I have nearly given all the Aintree profit back, not all of it just yet! 

**

Well I narrowed this down to these four + Sugar Baron / Arpege DL / Seldom Inn / Dawson City

In general I have four horses onside whose trainers are in decent form and four horses that are in decent enough form I think, with a slight niggle over Jonjo’s. ..

Another Hero – well he is unexposed over fences but hasn’t done much wrong. They put him in the Irish National last year which was some indication as to their thoughts on his stamina. And there are not too many better judges of a chaser’s stamina/potential over staying trips than Jonjo I don’t think. There is a chance this has been a plan. He was given a quiet ride the last day, not helped but being badly impeded at one stage, but in general he jumped and travelled well, holding his position. On this ground that will be important. They will go a pace here and I think a few won’t hold their positions/will struggle. In first time cheekpieces hopefully Aidan may ride him closer to the pace. I think he will stay but is a decent enough price to take a stab. Jonjo is on fire now, by far the best/most consistent form he has been in for an age. The horse could be anything over a trip like this.

Shotgun Paddy – well when having a brief look last night I put a line through him, and I don’t really know why. Maybe I thought he must have it soft/heavy. This could be a race where hardy, solid long distance chase form comes to the fore. And he has run some very admirable races over the years. There is a ground niggle, but he has gone close on decent enough ground at Cheltenham before and at his price I decided he was worth a play. He gets a first time visor here which is interesting. Over half the field in this race has headgear, which tells it’s own story. Now he may hate it. But he may take to it and if it sparks him up a tad more and makes him travel more sweetly he could hold his position on the front end/front third. If he is anywhere in the van when turning for home he should be there at the finish. He may get tapped for toe but on reflection there wasn’t enough evidence, at his price, to be that dismissive. He comes here in much better form that he did last year and so does the trainer. And i haven’t backed him for a while! One more go.

Trustan Times- well the conditions are fine. He stays, he travels on this ground, he generally jumps well, and surely this has been the plan. He comes here in decent form and a few pounds lower than when placing in this a couple of years back.  In this race two years back he was just starting to creep into it when he was very badly hampered and was PU not long after. Clearly he has had some problems but he is with a decent trainer and the last run suggests he is in some decent form again. He has the ability to figure here and at his price I thought it was worth a shot. Hopefully he can hold a position here and isn’t dropped out the back too far.

Premier Bond- my ‘value eyes’ are a bit crap at times. Is he too short? I don’t know. He is a double figure price and if he won I would be a tad annoyed had I not put him up. I have watched that Cheltenham race again and like the ease with which he travelled on the front end, on good ground, jumping well. He may have got tapped for toe turning in but he picked up again and was staying all the way through the line. It was a run that suggested he is well worth a crack at this trip. He looks like he tries for you and has time on his side. He should race prominently. He jumps. Good ground is ideal. Bar thinking he may be a couple of points too short, I couldn’t see why I should leave him out. He looks a fine big stamp of a horse and Bass is decent on the front.

So, those are the four. Two unexposed ones, two who have been there and done it (placed etc) either in this race or similar races before. Two proven stayers. Two who could relish every yard. The trainers of all four are in form. The horses are in decent nick. Fingers crossed I get a run for my money.

Of the rest…

Sugar Baron- well it would be annoying if he won, as it would any of the other 4 i have crossed off. I don’t like the way he lost his position LTO and got a bit far back. Yes he stayed on well at the end but if he does that here I can’t see him winning. I don’t think that was to do with the distance/being out-paced necessarily. They will go a similar gallop here. I suspect that is why the CP are on. They may make the difference but on balance i just left him. Maybe that thinking is wrong. If he holds his position all the way here I may not enjoy the last couple of furlongs! I can’t see why he should finish ahead of his stablemate though.

Arpege D’Alene- I have decided he is a slow boat, that he wont have the tactical speed for this, he may get a bit too far back and as such will end up taking a few fences home with him. Were he 20s I may be more anguished but at 11s I think I will sleep ok tonight if he romps home. He isn’t stepping up in trip here really- he just looks slow. He will stay. He will keep galloping. And he is young enough. That may well be enough but you can’t back everything and that is why a line went through him. Nicholls may have set him up for this and it will be the best run of his life. He did that with Vicente last year who had the same prep. I wont put you off him.

Seldom Inn- I decided that his jumping isn’t good enough on what he has show to date and he lacks any big field chase experience/form. This is no small field heavy chase at Kelso and there hasn’t been a chase yet where he hasn’t made errors. He has a high head carriage also and looks a bit of a thinker. 25s may allow you to overlook those questions, but again, I can’t back them all. I am going to suggest he won’t complete. Famous last words!

Dawson City – I know a few fancy him and maybe, for fear of missing out, I will have some change on at BFSP… but I struggle to see how he will be good enough. He has yet to race above class 3 or on decent ground really. I think he may get taken off his feet here and I decided that his form isn’t up to much. Yes he looks like a dour stayer, but every tip has shown much more ability to date. I don’t think he would have lived with Premier Bond in the KimMuir. You have to be bullish sometimes and he may make me look like a very poor judge! Maybe he will relish the ground and hold his position fine. I am struggling to see it. He couldn’t win the Sussex National, which on reflection wasn’t the deepest, and on good ground I don’t know how he takes this. But, some change just in case!

I probably haven’t mentioned the winner, it is one of those races. So tough. But at least there is no 7/2-6/1 hot pot who will bolt up.

Whatever you go with, good luck. I could have 15 goes at this and may not pick the winner.

**

Scottish National …

‘Winning Profile’ / Shortlis…

This looks an almost impossible puzzle! It has an odd feel, a surprise in the offing maybe. 

4 stats caught the eye.. completed LTO, Not 147+ (knocks out top 3) , 0-6 runs this season (3-6 best) , Ran Listed or Below LTO (have left in NH chase as Arpege has followed same route as last year’s Nicholls winner- NH Chase upgraded from Listed to G2 this year) 

That leaves a long list of: Arpege D’Alene / Seldom Inn / Premier Bond / Shotgun Paddy / Lessons In Milan / Another Hero / Sugar Baron / Firebird Flyer / Dawson City / Trustan Times / Man With Van. 

Full trends in comment below. 

**

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Sat Trainer/Jockey Combo

3.55 Ayr – Kruzhlinin (14/1 or shorter SP)

 

**

TTP Flat BONUS

Saturday’s qualifiers, with ratings pointers, from my Flat Stats guide…

(you can find out how to get hold of this guide, + the summer jumping one, HERE>>>)

Qualifiers…

 

Flat 

Thirsk

1.50 –

Gilmer (micro class + going) H3

Alpine Dream (micro runs 90 days)

2.20 – Specialv (micro class+ going + class)

4.40-

Green Light (going)

Top of The Glas (micro going + runs this season) G3

Sikandar (micro going + runs this season) G1

 

Newbury

5.55 –

Fleeting Visit (all hncps)

Signe (micro distance) H1

Top Beak (micro going) H3

 

Nottingham

5.30 – Amitious Icarus (micro distance) G3

7.30 –

Royal Reserve (4yo+)

House Of Commons (micro class) G1

Character Onesie (micro runs this season) G3 H3

**

The H1/H3, G1/G3 above refer to HorseRaceBase and Geegeez Speed Top rated or top 3 rated. 

**

That is all for today.

Good luck with any bets.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. Had a look through the card and my take on the stats has whittled the field down to four.

    I’m not too sure of what I’ve done here to deserve this lot but I’ll see if anyone else comes up with anything similar!!.

    Everyones favourite horse: Cogry *yikes*, Arpege D’Alene, Blakemount & Firebird Flyer.

    I’m intrigued by Blakemount so a little e/w for me.

    Arpege probably needs 7 miles mmmmm

    Firebird is a blast from the past.

    Cogry aka Cliff may draw me in. I’ll sleep on it.

    1. Good luck Andy – this race has started to hurt my head- I think you can make a case for plenty so I wont be putting you off any of those! Has a very strange feel.

  2. Scottish National Trends…

    20 year:

    19/20 Top 6 LTO

    PU: 0/49,6p
    Fell: 0/37,4p
    UR: 0/28,2p
    Total: 0/114, 12p
    **

    TRENDS

    10 years: 10/256, 40p

    **

    Previous Place

    Not too much given no. of runners etc..

    9/10 Top 6 LTO
    10/10 Top 10
    Fell: 0/11,0p
    PU: 0/24,4p
    UR: 0/12,1p
    Horse Weight

    7/10 carried 10-4 or less (7/128, 20p)
    (no such runners this year, another staying chase attracting better class animals,possibly making weight/OR stats irrelevant)
    10-5-11-2: 1/101,14p
    11-3: 2/4,2p
    11-6-11-11: 0/14, 3p
    11-12: 0/10,1p

    Horse Official Rating

    OR 147+ : 0/31,4p
    Season Runs

    10/10 had 3-6 runs this season
    0-2: 0/20,2p
    7+ : 0/57, 7p
    Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

    9/10 had RUN over 3m7f or further
    Had not: 1/115, 12 places
    ***

    OTHER STATS

    Miscellaneous 1

    Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

    Top 2: 0/23,3p
    ‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

    H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

    0-2: 0/25, 3p
    H- Run (Track-NH Code)

    0 chase runs at track: 8/162, 28p
    1+ : 2/94, 12p
    The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

    H-Win (Career)

    9/10 had 4-7 career wins
    0-3: 1/55, 6p
    8+ : 0/35, 4p
    H-Win (Hcap NH)

    7/10 had 0-1 handicap chase wins (7/148, 24p)
    2-3: 0/80, 10p
    4+ : 3/28, 6p
    H-Win (Grp/Grd/Lst)

    4+ G3 wins: 0/53, 7p

    Miscellaneous 2

    Class Move

    10/10 were moving up 1 class+ from last run (so Listed or below LTO)
    Same (G3) or dropping in class (G2+): 0/60, 7p
    Up 4+ : 0/14, 0p
    Highest Class Run

    9/10 had not run in a G1
    Had: 1/100, 14 p
    H –Places (Hncp NH Race Type)

    7/10 had placed (inc wins) in 0-2 handicap chases
    3-5: 0/87, 10p
    6+ : 3/62, 11p
    Stat possibly suggests you need to still be open to some improvement, or a hardy battler,with that middle band struggling – not got enough in hand nor enough experience and/or time to come back down handicap.. just an idea. Or just random/illogical!

    Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

    (LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

    9/10 ran in C2 or 3 LTO (9/137,27p)
    C1: 1/100, 11p (last year’s winner)
    (LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

    10/10 ran in ‘non major’ or Listed LTO
    G1: 0/15,5p
    G2: 0/5,0p
    G3: 0/40,2p
    (LR) Track

    Chelt: 3/72, 11p
    Donc: 2/15,6p
    Winc: 2/3,2p
    1 win: Ascot/Carlisle/Ayr
    Aintree: 0/26,1p
    Uttox: 0/23, 3p
    Trainers (of interest)

    A Parker: 2/3,3p
    1 win: bowen/A King/P Nicholls/NTD/T Vaughan/F Murphy/S Curran/H Parrott
    V Williams: 0/12,1p
    D Pipe: 0/12,2p
    S Smith: 0/12,1p
    **

  3. Hi Josh
    Tried HRB as a beginner and come up some way or other with Arpege D’Alene, Premier Bond, Sugar Baron. + Rockchasebullett 3:10 Bangor
    Bets are on. Off to the land of roundabouts ( Milton Keynes) to watch the Blades at last we are moving up 🙂

  4. IMO – The winner of SGN will be Shotgun Paddy. Good luck with whatever you backing, just remember 2nd is always good 🙂

    1. Shotgun Paddy could not win a raffle these days. I like, I am on at 33/1, Kruzhlinin, for Dickie and Hobbs. I hear that it has been laid out for this race. I appreciate that it is a stats buster.

      I also Like, at a price, Storm Trooper, 1.50 Th; Lackaday, 5.50Th; Mount Tahan, 3.30Th.

      Also Gosden has 4 at Newbury, Frankie on 3 of them. In form and perhaps a tasty yankee?

      Good luck today.

      1. Ah too dismissive Martin, you have form saying a horse definitely can’t win haha- hope you are wrong here. You may well be right but he has at least been running well enough- and is doing something different in terms of the 1st time visor. If he puts in one of his better staying chase efforts that may be enough to put him in the mix here. We shall see! GL

  5. I find that the only horse to come up for my Scottish National trends is Dawson City. Its been pretty good to date but didn’t get last years but grabbed 6 from 7 beforehand. The big niggle for me is the size of the shortlist, as in its just the ‘one’. Its managed to get 2 winners from a single selection, but usually from 3 or 4.

    I never really like ending up with one in trends races because in my opinion anyone who applies logic to trends can never be too certain of their relevance when they become combined with other logical threads in a race like this.

    None the less I will go for the hero call and throw a score on Dawson City along with £50 on various place bets on BF, currently at 46 for the win on BF and will ask for 55.

    Just got in (5 am) from coming 2nd in a Poker tourny so I’m a bit wired at the moment and hoping it’ll drift a little til I wake at around 2 tomorrow!

    I’m intending to throw another £30 on others to round it up to £100 and hopefully extend Friday nights luck into Saturday afternoon too!

    Good luck to everyone…Come on Dawson City though!!!

  6. my picks for the SGN are Vintage Clouds, on basis Danny Cook has preferred it primarily to Blakemount, though he has also won on Straidanahannah, and the other one I’d be keen on is Southfield Royale who comes here fit and fairly fresh. Of the older brigade conditions could be ideal for Alvorado and he’ll feel like he’s running round without a jockey off that weight!

  7. Hi Josh
    My system has thrown up that many selections I have decided to go only with those who have done the distance previously and of course can handle the going, that gives from my system,apart from the FS

    Missed Approach…W Greatrex 20/1
    Vincente…P Nichols 11/1
    Arpege D’Alene…P Nichols 11/1
    Trustan Times…M Walford 16/1
    Alvarado…F O’Brien 22/1
    And my Foinavon Special…
    Father Edwards…D Pipe 125/1

    Cheers Stuart

      1. Hi Josh ,
        Cannot complain as I swerved my FS but backed the rest win and place on the Tote and made a nice 7.7 points profit.

        Stuart

  8. Hi Josh.
    To my mind, a front running Novice is the type required for this and as such I have come down on Missed Approach. This gelding looks to me to be progressing at a rate of knots and his last run at Chelters was a really improved performance and proved he has the stamina for this and he has the assistance of a Grand National winning jockey who knows what is required here and hasn’t been mentioned in any race review that I’ve seen.
    Best of luck
    Tom

    1. Hi Tom, yep you won’t get me putting you off him really. The OR/weight stats put me off a tad, as did the concern that the headgear may not work again, and I am not sure how good that race was LTO. Those at the front dominated to a point and he did very much get his own way for most of it. He won’t get that today. But, you make a good case. I know why I am not on him but am wrong many more times than I am right! GL.

  9. As a shareholder in Premier Bond, I can only be hopeful, and he is not a bet as he is inexperienced and can develop a breathing problem late on; he will be seeing the vet again during the summer. I’ve no stable info but rate the chance of Sugar Baron who was hampered lto and looks to need this sort of trip.
    I’ve had a dollar on Dawson City but think that Henri Parry Morgan may shine today given a four miler for the first time and Blakemount might stay on for a minor place.

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