Ah, well Saturday didn’t go to plan but I am happy enough with the bets and would make the same again no doubt. I narrowed the 5.30 down to three and was pleased one of them won. The two selections (one non runner)were 10/1+, the winner was 6/1. I thought that wasn’t overly generous but it turned out to be decent! Jonjo’s string are really firing now and him and Longsdon look like having a decent summer. His one here relished the decent ground and the distance, transforming him into a different horse from what we had seen before. The 2.40 was a tad annoying – I hold my hands up as I didn’t clock that Willouby Hedge had first time blinkers on, I missed that. I have no idea what I would have done with that info but given he had won in first time visor and was lightly raced enough for his age, I may have pondered him for longer.
Thankfully Elysian Prince won at 10s for members (7.5/1 after R4) to ensure my own punting day wasn’t a wipe out. He qualified on the #1 strategy and amazingly, those that are ‘double rated’ within that strategy (ie with a Horseracebase top 3 rating and a geegeez speed top 3 rating) are 5/12, +50 points or so over the jumps, in 2017. That is very micro, but good fun. The Summer Jumps stats have had a decent start. Moving on…
TIPS
5.15 Ffos Las-
Potters Cross – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) UP/PU
Cogry- 1/2 point win – 13/2 6/1 (general) 2nd
This race has a funny old feel about it. The good ground complicates things as on paper not many of these are sure to relish it. They have been watering and that always suggests they were concerned about it being too fast. Maybe it will be ‘dead’ ground and in that case it may open it up- but most of these seem to want it soft or heavy.
Potters Cross.. well there is no concern about the ground with him. He seems to ‘have to’ lead or at least not have a cluster of horses in front of him. He was held up at the Festival the last day and never in it, and in a better race than this at Donny before that, was never in a rhythm and couldn’t do his own thing.
I like the fact there are 1st time cheekpieces here. That makes me want to have a go in truth as it may spark him up and he has ran very well after a PU before, and I think we get a decent price. So, that is interesting. As is the hope/expectation that they try and make all. Now, there are others who like to push but that has usually been on much slower ground. At his best Potters Cross is very fast and fluent on the front end and the hope is that he takes many of these out of their comfort zone. IF he can dominate and get into a rhythm he should be thereabouts at the finish. I think he should stay and the way he has won over 26f suggest it may even eek out more. He is only 3/10,4p over fences. I got this kind of thing wrong with Carli King mind, who wasn’t quick enough to get to the front against a couple of others who wanted to lead- who I thought wouldn’t be able to on good ground. If I have this wrong again here it will be a rubbish race to watch as Potters may be struggling with over a circuit to go.
Anyway, the headgear, his front running when on song, and his price made him of interest in this line up to me.
Of the rest…
Well it is one of those where you can make some sort of case for them all.
Knockanrawley and The Bay Oak are just too short for me. The former is lazy and had a very tough race LTO. He does stay very well and if the ground isn’t too quick and he is travelling comfortably near/on the front end then he should be there at the death. The latter has a few too many questions at that price but is clearly in the ‘could be anything’ category. The fact he struggled to win a 3 runner chase LTO when fancied, raises a question or two, at his price.
Aubusson- again 5s seems ok, but not generous- maybe a bit like the Jonjo winner yesterday – he is unexposed over fences and this trip could bring about improvement. He has been hurdling on his last two starts though and hadn’t fully convinced in his two chases before that. His better/winning form has been on soft or worse also, that is another question/niggle. At 5s I was happy to let him beat me, which he may well do. He is becoming well handicapped.
Cogry- ah, the horse I am never destined to get right. Can I resist throwing some change at him here. I am not sure. What a bugger he is over fences. Sam TD is the only one to have won on him over fences which caught my eye, 2/3. He has ability. But, he is 0/7,1p in chases on going with ‘good’ in the description and appears to like it slower. He has has so many questions but he has ability, he will stay, and if he can get his jumping sorted could win this well. The hope is, for those leaving him, is that on this ground they go a stride quicker than ideal for him. I wouldn’t begrudge him a chase win now and it would make me smile. I am just never destined to get him right. The CHEEKPIECES do return here, and he did run a very good race from the back at Sandown. This is easier than many assignments he has faced also. We shall see. I couldn’t leave potters at 9s but this lad may not be far away. (is that more heart than head, who knows) (as I was writing this, and thinking more, I am going to have to throw 1/2 a point at him here… for one final time! Headgear + STD riding.)
I can’t have the rest. I think the two Scudamore horses want slower ground, well Streets Of Promise looks like she does and ran no sort of race LTO, never really going. Kingswell Theatre stays very well but may want even further than this and a fear this could happen a stride too quick for him. It may not and if the race falls apart he may keep galloping. You can forgive the cross country run LTO. The run before that was decent, but was in returning headgear. Maybe he is a thinker.
Bowen’s horse doesn’t have a great record after a break and is 0/5,0p in handicap chases OR 131+, 0/7,1p all runs 90+ days off the track. Those two snippets were enough to put me off. Court Frontier will need a career best, and again looks like he may want it softer. He stays though although has an unexpected poor run LTO to overcome.
I think that’s the lot.
**
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
2.35 Plump – Rude And Crude (14/1<)
3.30 Ffos Las – Ratify (16/1<)
**
Trainer Track Profiles Flat+ Summer Jumps
Non Members will be able to buy the Flat and Summer Jumps packs at the back end of this week.
I think it will be £27 (+vat) for that package. More on that later in the week. I am aiming for Thursday for ‘launch’.
**
One Response
no in depth analysis, just what a fancy for a fun bet.
ffos las
1-55 Baldadash 9-1
2-25 Sweetlittlekitty 8-1
5-45 Salumani The Late 9-2
£1 ew patent stake £14, potential returns £755-75