All-Weather Champions Day is here… ‘hurrah’… cheered a few people no doubt. Not me. I mean I praise the concept and the prize money is superb. I doubt I will be watching. Who’s running? I couldn’t tell you. I may be in the pub. In any case you all know I am a poor judge on the All-Weather and I look forward to reading any of your insightful comments/tips!
There is an unappealing card from Bath as well. Quiet before the storm for me.
There will be no tips, obviously.
And there are no system selections again.
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Horses of Interest?
Well I will see if any stats stand out as a ‘way in’, for you to use as you please..starting with…
- 5.00 Bath: Demons Rock – Tom Dascombe has sent three ‘1st time out 2 year olds’ to Bath in recent years, two have won, for +6 points SP. He runs Demons Rock here and the main man is up in the saddle. The market may well guide. Hannon has one also, he is 0/14,4p with his 1st time out 2 year olds at the track, so I won’t be wading into his at 3s, but who knows.
Nothing else jumping out at me. Demons Rock was 10s last night, 8s generally this morning…money seems to be coming. We shall see how significant that is.
Good luck with any bets today.
10 Responses
I think Ardamir 3.00 Bath is a qualifier on your Alan King flat angle, right?
Short odds but i hear he was very unlucky in defeat LTO
I see Kimberella Sovereign Debt Absolute Blast to win at Ling
Holiday Magic and Hakam are worth to look at ling opener,betting will tell more
hi pab
1) how did you come to select kimberella..i know its won at class 2 level and likes the course but i seleted pretend which lost
2 ) how did you come to select sovereign debt… i selected saluteen was 3rd
well done any info to help would be nice
thanks
A couple of 2yo £20k conditions races today. Hard to nominate any selections as the ones I have already seen don’t really appeal although that edge given by experience cannot be under-estimated and no doubt the Evans runners will all compete well. Tentative selections
Newcastle 2.00 Kheleyf’s Girl
5.00 Bath Chagatai
Date & Title: 14th April Newcastle 5f Fillies Conditions
4.25 Marsh Storm, Peace Prevails
3.75 Kheleyf’s Girl
3.25 Cheeseandpickle, Nsnas Alward
3 Fas Le Fios
2.75 Controversial Lady
2.25 Thrifty
1.75 Time For Treacle
Preview – Between the top three with a squeak for Cheeseandpickle. Hard to think Kheleyf’s Girl will not have learnt enough from a tough debut at Southwell but has a poor draw to overcome as do Peace Prevails and Kheleyf’s Girl. The draw would seem to favour Marsh Storm quite strongly.
As a rule, I don’t worry about the draw too much with 2yos as they tend to wander about and a good jockey is more important. In this race, the best 4 2yo jocks are on the four named above.
Date & Title: Bath 5f Conditions 14th April
4.25 Demons Rock
3.75 Shovel It On, Zalshah
3.5 Chagatai
3.25 Airshow,
3 Last Page
2.5 Manco Inca
2.25 Jonny Simpson
2 My Guy
Preview – This race and the one at Newcastle helps to explain how 2yos can become so over-rated in the early season. A £20k Cl2 conditions with a £10k Bonus for the qualifiers which I think have to be from English or Irish located mare or stallion. A nice prize to win but if the Cox, Hannon or Dascombe debutant turns out to be a better one anything which finishes close up due to prior experience is going to be hammered for nurseries.
As can be seen from my ratings I don’t think there are any superstars from the Leicester race but interesting to see Airshow here and he may go off favourite. Of course, there may not be anything much better on debut as it is so early in the season but the top 4 algo scores are all worth a second look.
Demons Rock – 45k as a yearling, doesn’t qualify for the bonus and looks a very heavily built chunky type in stable photo on the Manor House website http://www.manorhousestables.com/horse.php?id=182 so may have a problem shifting his bulk at such an early stage . Stablemate at Lingfield slow away but with Kingscote on board this is unlikely to be a problem. Drawn 3
Zalshah – Looks to qualify for the bonus. 40k. the Hannons have won this race twice 2to a couple of years ago and on debut in 2008. Last year Kreb’s Cycle finished 2nd for them but was not a better one but then it was only a novice race last year. Drawn 8
Chagatai – 110k and given Cox’s liking for this course likely to go off favourite. The fly in the ointment is Hitchcott on top. Stable preference is usually Kirby (at Lingfield today) then Fahy. I don’t have a problem with Sam Hitchcott, he doesn’t ride a lot of 2yos but he is 10% on 2yos at Bath, still seems out of the ordinary. Drawn 5
Can’t really find a way in to this. No doubt David Evans will be keen to scoop up the pot and his Brocklesby runner Last page drawn looks the most likely but unsupportable for me as if anyone can snatch defeat from certain victory it is Steve Drowne. However 5 of his 19 2yo wins in the last 5 years have been at Bath giving him a c&d 2yo strike rate of 25% , so like Sam Hitchcott, maybe he is a specialist here. Drawn 9 which would appear to be an advantage. Danny Brock on his other 2yo Shovel It On, he is only 3/66 and most of those would be for Evans, suggesting that this is the 2nd string. Can’t really see this one being better than one of the debutants.
Perhaps best to hope ATR give us a good look at them in the paddock and hope one of the four mentioned above looks a different model to the little chaps I have seen. The Millman’s clearly think Airshow is speedy but the pilot did not get him away at Leicester and may well not do so here too.
Prior race notes
Airshow – An ordinary runty little chap, still carrying some winter coat. Missed the break which did not help, stayed on but will always be size limited. Perhaps they can find a little race at Brighton or Bath soonish. 58
Shovel It On – Probably flattered by his finishing position as he stayed on as others faded. One of Dave Evan’s electric mice. Easy to see him whizzing around an aw track 2to. Not tiny like Airshow. 60
Manco Inca – On his toes, short back, downhill at the shoulder 59
Backed Demons Rock at 20s on betfair last night. Laid off today at 8.4 for a free bet. Minimum stakes bet.
Just the one for me today. Salateen was given a great ride in a listed race LTO however the market appears to have dismissed him despite the fact that he has won his last three races in the UK (4/6 including Meydan). There is reasonable chance that he will be able to get a soft lead once again in the 15:40 at Lingfield today given there doesn’t appear to be a great deal of pace. It took some time but O’Meara has finally got him figured out. Considering he has booked Ryan Moore for the first time in 11 months and only second time since 2015 they must be expecting a big run. Both trainer (3/9, 3p) and jockey (10/17, 14p) have great records here in non-handicaps in the past 2 years. The horse is top rated on both HRB and GGG Spped ratings. He is joint top rated on the ATR tipster’s speed rating also. The favourite could easily win this but he is sucking up such a massive part of the market and has to be taken on at the price. Obviously the concern is the step up to 8f but the only 2 times he has tried the trip was as a 2/3 year old and one was in a Grade 2 and the other was off a break.
Will take the double your money place profits. Should have had a saver on the winner when I realised Sullivan and Carr were at Lingfield after she had 2 winners at Newcastle today.
Ruth Carr in superb form she had also winner at Carlise last time
At a Price, 66/1, 2.10 LP, Vettori Rules. Ms Kelleway has had this race in mind for the horse for a while and is sticking cheek pieces and anythin else she can think of to get a run out of it. Long odds but you never know.
Newcastle and Bath review
Cheeseandpickle – the money for the Dalgleish runner told the story here. Kheleyf’s girl clearly flattered by her placing in a 4 runner race at Southwell.
Cheeseandpickle looked a good size bigger than her competitors and despite the slow time did this without Philip Makin having to get at all serious. Apart from the winner I would think only Thrifty and Marsh Storm are worth following from this 2to.
Hugh
Chagatai – Not that much pleasure from having put up a favourite and to be honest despite my comments about Steve Drowne being able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, he didn’t do a lot wrong here although perhaps a better 2yo jock would have kept his mount better balanced and pulled his whip through and tried to keep Last Page straighter.
Chagatai can perhaps be marked up as he had very little luck, sideswiped by Airshow as he left the stalls then getting trapped behind horses as the second went for home. Time unremarkable for firm going but still a likeable winner.
Demon’s Rock perhaps may have found the ground a bit fast. He looks heavy topped and was eased off early.
The surprise package was Autumn Lodge, but weather he is a better one or holds the form down is a moot point. He looks an ok size and was prominent early with Zalshah and Jonnysimpson and Demons Rock but was the only one who stuck on.
Glad to see Airshow run to his mark of 58 or maybe worse as along with Shovel It On it a scale of ability starts to become apparent.
Hugh