1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)
3.Any general messages/updates etc
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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
Flat
Bath
3.00- Icebuster (all hncps) 14,30 G3 6/1
4.30
-Sir Roderic (all hncps + micro age) 14,30 16/1
-The Warrior (micro going IF FIRM) (qualifies on going micro) G1 7/1
(The Warrior is an example, if following the RP10/1+ approach, of when you would set 11.00 as minimum BFSP. He does not qualify on morning prices -7/1 not 10/1+, but may drift ‘into range’. So, if you follow this strategy, you should be placing a bet on Betfair SP, setting minimum odds of 11.00. Your bet will only be placed if the BFSP is 11.00 or bigger. If not, you get your money back into your account. Icebuster would be the same also)
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KEY:
H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
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2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)
None.
(Bet of The Day Test Running Total: 6/33, +29)
3.Any general messages/updates etc
A quiet intro into the next few days. I suspect Saturday will be a bit busier, as will Monday.
Weekend plans…
There are no ‘big race trends’ for Saturday. Haydock has a decent card but I believe most of those races are relatively new. I can’t find any trends as yet anyway. In 10 years time we will have a few! There are a couple of 3m+ chases I will attack ‘cold’ (no stats/trends) over on the free posts. I think I found the winner, No Duffer, of the 3 miler last year, at around 8s. There are no big ‘heritage handicaps’ on the flat that I can see.
Fairyhouse…
I will have a look at the Irish Grand National, and one of their big handicap hurdles. I suspect these stats/trends will be available on the free posts etc albeit I may make the handicap hurdle members only.
Into next week we have the Craven Meeting and there will be some trainer pointers for that, if I can find any, to use as you please.
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If you missed the following…
#1 Advised Strategy: VIDEO.
Below is a 12 minute video (short for me!) looking at the #1 advised strategy ‘RP 10/1+’ – mainly for those who are still not sure what it is, OR those who may not know how to set the minimum odds on BFSP. If you just want the Betfair bit you can jump straight to around 8m30 seconds. (there is one factual error in the video when I refer to a recent flat winner as a RP 10/1+ qualifier- he wasn’t, so ignore that!)
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RESULTS: Don’t forget to have a flick through the results update to end of March if you haven’t already. You can read that HERE>>>
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VERY IMPORTANT:
Membership Renewal
A general point first: Your log in details should always get you into the Members Area, whereby you can use the ‘Renew Subscription’ link in the top right hand side when logged in. If your membership ever expires you can still log in, just of course not read Members’ Content. From there you can rejoin/renew etc.
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All Members can move from Monthly to Annual at any time, using the same process. Obviously you will need to cancel the Monthly plan to ensure you are not double charged, but you know where to find me if that happens, and I will just refund.
As I have said before, the current plan of £12.50 pm, £127 annual, will never be raised for as long as you remain on it. That will be available through to the end of September.
5 Responses
Hello Josh. Well, I’m back! I joined in January on the free trial, which coincided with one of your rare poor runs. So I took a break to review things and focus on my Festival punting. (Aintree went well, but I struggled at Cheltenham – review blog here if any of your readers are interested: http://www.mugpunting.net/2017/03/cheltenham-wrap.html)
In the meantime I’ve built up a sensible bank and intend to stick with your info for a decent run. My problem has always been staking – I don’t want to back every potential qualifier from all the systems/angles, and I want to focus a few value bets each day. I see that your system has been refined since I’ve been away. The RP10/+ looks like a good guide to me. Indeed I got off to a flyer yesterday with Bankhall (even though I didn’t get 10/1, I was happy with the 8/1 I took). I’ll combine this with looking at double qualifiers who are 5/1 and bigger and see how we go from there.
Good stuff Josh. Keep ’em coming.
Hello Dave, welcome back!
-Blimey, February was a shocker, just what you want when X amount sign up for a trial- a good many of those left in Feb, maybe they will return one day 🙂 In truth given how Nov/Dec/Jan had gone in general for the stats they were due a shocker, and that duly came. It was awful. Thankfully March bounced back in some style and April has been ticking along just fine, esp for #1 strategy.
-Sounds like you have had a good read of the Results update and your intended approach should see you have plenty of fun with that bank growing over time.
Bankhall- I doubt many got 10s, it was probably around for 15 minutes- and as luck would have it was generally around when I updated the prices, and therefore qualified on RP10/1+ on the way i record results etc. He is declared as an 8/1 winner, I doubt many got 10s, 10.00 BFSP. (but was an RP 10/1+ qual)
-The stats find decent priced winners, that is the foundation, and should give us all confidence moving forwards.
Anyway, any questions, recommendations for improvement/ideas, you know where to find me.
Josh
Hey Josh
I’ve had a bet on Icebuster @6-1. have gone through the race he looks the most likely winner and 6-1 is value for me. The top two in the market, Midtech Star never won on the turf 0/11, he is a nice all-weather horse though, who I have followed I just don’t think he likes the turf and Ardamir from 10 starts 7 on the all-weather is 0/7 wins 3/7 places and 3 on the Turf is 0/3 wins and 0/3 places. For me happy to take them both on.
Can you believe I’m not really playing at Lingfield today, just a bit of a long shot Supersta @50-1 each way and I’m going to miss the meeting too as my beloved Huddersfield Town are playing at home.
Have a great good Friday and good luck with your betting all
Hi Gavin,
Good luck, a gooduse of the info. Hopefully he bolts up.
Nope I can’t believe you are not having a good go at AW champs day, thought you relished the sand?! Clearly you relish Huddersfield Town a bit more.
Enjoy the match.
Josh
I do love the sand, just been out of form on my picks for the all-weather. The RP 10+ and the rest of my portfolio have been ticking along very nicely, so it doesn’t hurt to have a few weeks of the all-weather to rebuild the old confidence level and to see where I can improve. When it does come to a choice between watching the Town live and watching the racing live the Town just has the edge because I’m a season ticket holder, so when I get back home I’ll be watching the days racing replays so I don’t really miss anything 🙂