Free Daily Post: 10/04/17 (complete)

Tips x2 .

 

TIPS

 

3.10 Kelso

Green Flag – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/BB) 14/1 (general) 3rd 10/1

Double Whammy – 1  point win – 4/1 (general) UP (drifted)

Ah, I got that one rather wrong. Didn’t think 8s was overly generous for Scotswell this morning, clearly an error. He did get an easy lead and the booking of Cook clearly significant. I thought after that break and given his most recent form something with fewer chase runs may beat him. Not enough emphasis on a possible easy lead. And too much emphasis on some of those runs RH, he doesn’t go RH,and recent runs LH were fine. Poor Damn. Decent enough run from Green Flag. Double Whammy looked to be coming to make a challenge – maybe this was to set him up for Perth again in a couple of weeks. Travelled like the winner approaching a couple from home and stamina shouldn’t have been a problem, although he clearly has headgear for a reason.

 

Having looked at this I thought Double Whammy and Green Flag were of most interest, one being 4/1, the other 14s+.

I think Double Whammy is the most likely winner actually – it’s all about the return to good ground, and he went well for a long way last time out. While he handles soft, his best form has been on Good and he is still lightly enough raced in handicap chases- 3/9,5p. He won on his 3rd start after a break last year, and maybe he will do the same again here. The trainer is in cracking form. My judgement at this end of the market is usually poor but i thought 4s was ok actually, and I expect to see a decent performance. This is a fair bit easier than his last race also. They may of course be setting him up for a repeat victory in that Perth race near the end of the month but I will roll the dice here and see how we go.

Green Flag – well this is a stab but I didn’t want to let market weakness put me off. He could just be gone at the game, but he has so much back class and his mark has plummeted, that I couldn’t resist at 14s or so. Not long ago he was winning C3s off 138+, now here on 118. This is his 3rd run after a 700+ day absence and they may have just been taking their time with him. While he won a few non handicaps on heavy in his youth, I think he may just have out-classed his oppo in those, as his best form in open company seemed to be on a decent surface. Having raced on heavy the last few times, he may bounce of this good ground. Conditions look fine and we know the yard will be bouncing. Russell could go on a run now, if you subscribe to the theory that happy people make for happy horses. You would expect the place is buzzing and that will rub off on the horses, an extra spring in their step maybe! Either way, I was happy to have a dart to find out if this one has any ability remaining. The fact they have persevered for all this time suggests there is still something there. He looked interesting enough.

Of the rest…

Well it is hard to be overly enthusiastic about anything else. Nakadam is young enough but keeps coming up short and this is his first run on proper good. He may improve for it but soft/heavy seemed fine so I don’t see that as an excuse for this last two runs, when more was expected. But, he could go close. 9/2 wasn’t overly generous for me personally. I could have that wrong. Spanish Fleet – well he has stamina and class questions for me, so I was happy to leave.

Carrigdhoun, Harry The Viking and Scotswell – those three owe me nothing. They must have won me/the blog around 40-50 points between them in the last 3-4 seasons. They are getting on a bit now and this good ground may find them out. They all strike me as being a bit one paced these days and each has a question or two. But, the race has an odd enough feel to it- I can cheer them on here if mine are done for, without having a penny on. My head says no.

BallyBen has a break to overcome and wasn’t in the best form when last seen. He also looked held by the handicapper on the two runs before that. He has a bit to prove now, which made 6s only fair. It is ok. He could go close but I wasn’t enthusiastic to jump in given those two questions of fitness and mark, now 0/5,2p OR 121+  .

That leaves the Hammond horse… well he gets first time cheekpieces which does catch the eye, and I can see why at his odds some may reach for the spare change drawer. He needs them to work. His last three runs have been mediocre at best, in pretty much similar conditions to today, in terms of trip and ground. He has course form but then also takes a step up in class. Enough doubts for me but if the headgear works wonders you never know, only 2/9,3p over fences, so his legs are young enough in this line up.

That’s the lot- there is a bit of pace on paper- I can’t think anything will be able to dominate fully here although Scotswell will give it a good go. The two selections are usually held up a tad, which is always dangerous, but hopefully the race sets up for them.

**

 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

none.

 

**

That is all for today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. Two 2yo races tomorrow, 2.00pm Windsor and 2.20pm Redcar.

    Date & Title: 9th April Windsor 5f Novice
    4.25 Lethal Lunch
    3.75 Daddie’s Girl, Give Em A Clump,
    3.5 May Remain, Angel Of The South, Controversial Lady
    3.25 Declaration Of Love
    3 Milton Road
    2.5 Rock Of Estonia
    .5 Mullion Star, Glimpse Of Dirhams
    Preview
    Nice to see the first progeny of Lethal Force and Society Rock on the track. Ryan Moore is supreme here and riding 62k Lethal Lunch drawn 5 for the Hannon’s will probably go off odds on. Hard to see Rock Of Estonia forecast 2nd fav on RP being a serious challenger drawn 11 with Spencer up for Charles Hills. A questionable draw, a trainer who seems to have softened his debut approach from a couple of years ago and a jockey who is obsessed with holding them up, not very tempting, although high drawn held up have an above average impact value here. Daddie’s Girl for Millman only cost 5.5k, let’s hope she is bigger than Airshow at Leicester.
    The main dangers to LL would seem to be the 170k Angel Of The South, Dean Ivory perfectly capable of a debut winner, good jock, good draw. Give Em A Clump for the wily Welshman, by Camacho who gets very early winners with Kirby up which is always a positive sign for Evans, moderate draw. Paul Cole likes his Windsor winners but one never knows if they are going to be mad as a box of frogs or ready to roll, he has the 26k May Remain from stall 4.
    Controversial Lady does not appeal as Stan Moore’s always need a run.
    Tom Clover (ex assistant to William Haggas) makes his 2yo training debut with a debutant for Declaration Of War called Declaration of Love. The worst of the draw but it will be interesting to see how well prepared he is.
    Lethal Lunch would appear the most likely winner but the Hannon’s never rush theirs to get a debut win at Windsor, both Give Em A Clump who is likely to be precocious and Angel Of The South as well as to a lesser extent May Remain cannot be discounted. The pictures will tell the story.

    Date & Title: 10th April Redcar 5f Novice
    4.25 Nobrassnolass,
    3.75 Inviolable Spirit, Rockin Fella,
    3.25 Sandytown, Lady Lintera
    2.75 Brandy Station, Ventura Gold, Savannah’s Show
    2.5 Tember, Watching Spirits
    2.25 Marnie James
    .5 Just For The Craic,

    Preview – No discernible draw advantage that I can see, the Geegeez analysis sample is too small. 2yo strike rates suggest that this is not a course Dascombe, Burke or Duffield target although Dascombe sample is small. Also his first 2yo at Wolverhampton went very well on Saturday, in recent years he has not been targeting the early ones as much until last season, so this may signal intent.
    Puzzling jockey bookings in that McDonald usually rides Duffield’s good ones and Curtis Burkes, but they are the other way around here.
    The SL also suggests that it is significant that Hanagan is on one of the two Fahey runners. My feeling is that Hamilton is a far better 2yo jock, Hanagan’s better 2yo strike rate being due to the quality of 2yos he was riding for Hamdan from a small sample. He is a great jockey on experienced handicappers but has never seemed to me to be a horseman who can get the best from green 2yos. No doubt I will have egg on my face after this.
    So between the top 3 for me with a slight preference for Inviolable Spirit and Nobrassnolass over Rockin Fella.
    Hugh

    1. Great stuff Hugh, qualified on my Redcar TTP profile also, Inviolable Spirit – what with your positive words had a little pop at BFSP. Did that well, clearly fairly decent, green/hit trouble. Although my ‘2yo eye’ needs some work, I will leave that to you 🙂

      1. Yes very satisfactory and if you get a chance to watch the race again Iron hands Hanagan gave a perfect example of why I generally avoid him on 2yos. He can’t settle them, consequently they lug one way or the other then find lots of trouble in running while he explores all parts of the track. Ventura Gold like Airshow the other Red Jazz I have seen looked to be on the small side but could have been a lot closer with a competent ride.

        Kingscote maybe doing a bit too much early on Nobrassnolass but a decent enough debut.

        Did not get egg on my face here unlike in the Windsor race comments about Spencer. Will cover that in a full review with pictures.
        Hugh

        1. Ah, if you have strong opinions in this game you need a good supply of Eggs!
          I will get your first review up tomorrow, today has got away from me with one thing or another.

  2. hi josh
    interesting about happy people making happy horses, pity ken dodd wasnt a trainer, could have been a good one!

    1. haha, true. I remember speaking to a work rider for Hugo Palmer, when at Newmarket at some point last year I think- At the time Hugo couldn’t stop banging in winners- I mean he was consistent all season anyway, but it was around the time he was getting married, a few people had birthdays in the yard- anyway, this work rider said the place was bouncing, plenty of parties, everyone in good spirits etc- she was adamant this rubs off on the horses- and likewise when certain staff leave, or there is a low mood in the yard for whatever reason, that also transmits.
      Makes plenty of sense to me!

  3. Hi Josh

    Nice to meet on Saturday and let me know about Sandown. I am drawn to Scotswell in the 15:10. I thought it was a massive eye catcher that the trainer has managed to book Danny Cook for the ride for what will be his ever ride for the stable I believe and we know how good he is at the front. The horse loves it here, likes good ground (plus he has good/firm form in case the ground goes fast). That run here in October off a similar sort of break behind One for Arthur looks quite good now.

    I also like the trainers other runner Sudski Star in the 17:10. The return to good ground should suit.

    Moving on to Redcar I thought Shamaheart looked too big given he ran some good races over course and distance off a similar mark and has a great record 2/7,5p at the track and jockey and trainer do very well around here. He is one of the few race for ones here and will like the fast ground. Trainer had his first win in ages last weekend also.

    1. Hi Nick, yep good to meet you on Saturday too.
      Scotswell – yep I won’t be putting anyone off him, maybe 8s was ok when I looked this morning – he has run well after a break before and as you say Cook is an interesting booking – we know what the intention will be here, and on this ground maybe nothing will go with him early. I just wondered whether he had regressed a tad/lacked the pace now to get away – but if he gets into a rhythm then maybe they wont catch him- if he repeats that run behind One For Arthur then he will go close.
      Hmm. Maybe I have left the winner there. Clearly couldn’t tempt myself at this price this morning. Hopefully Harry The Viking can take him on for a time, but if Danny boots him he may not have the legs to go with him. Should be a good watch. He is the only one that money is coming for. GL

      1. Well done Nick, I got that a bit wrong! 8s clearly decent for him and got the easy lead. Thanks to your confidence I may have taken some covery fire.

        1. You wait all month for the winner and two come along in a day. I didn’t really give Sudski the write up he deserved but he won very easily there(sorry was in a rush). Yeah I thought Scotswell might get done when Nakadam got close to him (according to Racing Post anyway) but he stuck it out well. Shame about Shamaheart who wasn’t a mile away from grabbing a place.

          1. Back in form! I forgot you mentioned him, I may have had a quick glance at Geegeez instant expert before that 5.10 Kelso – and well you couldn’t but have a few coins on him, nice BFSP! Well done.

  4. The Gary and Ryan Moore combo come together today in the 3.00 Windsor, Light of Air. 11/2 now, take the hint.

    1. You will need a loan shark to help you out Martin if you back all of their’s blind!! It isn’t much of a hint on the numbers, you have to pick them carefully..
      153/1043 all runs, 15% win, -251
      Flat turf handicaps… 70/520, 13% sr , -97 SP.. from what I can see. that is very top level though, no doubt a way in somewhere, generally over-bet, no value, it seems. SR is lower than I assumed it would be.
      Josh

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