Members Daily Post: 10/04/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

Jumps

Kelso 

2.10 –

Lough Derg Jewel (all hncps) 12/1 2nd 13/2

Landecker (micro distance) H3 13/2 3rd 11/2

2.40 – Whitsundays (all hncps + hncp chase) H1, G3 3/1

4.10 – Sky Full Of Stars (micro age) H1 10/3

Flat 

Windsor 

3.00 – Perfect Quest (4yo+) H3 11/2

3.30 – Bluff Crag (all hncps) H3 7/2

5.00 –

Soaring Spirits (4yo+) 16/1

Topology (micro TJC) 18/1

Redcar

2.20 –

Inviolable Spirit (1st 2yo) 7/1 WON 17/2, 9.64 BFSP

Ventura Gold (1st 2yo) 7/2 UP

4.20 –

Character Onesie (4yo+) G1 20/1 (RP 10/1+ qual)

Shamaheart (micro TJC+distance) 16/1

5.25 –

Monaco Rose (4yo+) 15/2

Cabal (micro TJC) 13/2

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of the Day… (test: 6/19, +33 points)

2.10 Kelso – Lough Derg Jewel – 1 point win – 12/1 (PP/SJ/Lad/BetB) 11/1 (general) 2nd 13/2

Ah, no excuse there, hopefully you may have backed EW, but no real excuse. Front two went a sensible pace to my eye, ideally he would have had his own way, but wasn’t to be. Got beaten a length in the end – I hate that camera angle! Looked the winner for most of the way, swallowed up near the line. Great entertainment mind and comfortably beat the market. 

He ticks the boxes for the type of horse I like to put up with this ‘bet of the day test’ – namely he is young, unexposed and there could be more to come in handicaps, and he is doing something different. I should get some more bottle with this type as there have been many winners with similar profiles in recent weeks, and I have  enough ‘test points’ to play with. St Saviour, 14s, and Kirby’s 20/1 winner fitted that mould.

Anyway, onto the horse…

He makes handicap hurdle debut and I did notice that McCain is 3/7,4p, +8, with handicap debutants here in the last 5 years. The SP points profit would suggest that some market support is important so we shall see if that materialises. He has a strange profile for one making handicap hurdle debut in that he has already won a maiden hurdle. He was given a mark of 125 and McCain has then run him 3 times under a penalty, running ok. His maiden hurdle win was over CD so that is a positive. Good ground is an unknown, he may improve for it, he may not, but his win was on good to soft so hopefully that is ok. He ‘could’ have found 20f too sharp around Bangor LTO and he ‘could’ have found the very soft ground too deep the two runs prior to that. Pace was also a factor – he front runs and I think he may get his own way up top here if he wants it, which is always a positive.

I advise all these ‘bet of the days’ as 1 point win, the only true way to measure if something works long term. But at 12s, I will have an EW nibble, probably 1 point EW in truth, as I would like to think he will run his race. Given the age of some in here, and the time off the track, I would like to think he will be in the mix. Of course this mark could be too high but he knows how to win, and has youth on his side. He will do for a stab.

Nothing else on the jumps entices me personally at the odds.

Flat..

Some money around for Topology I found interesting- I had a small EW nibble last night at 20s in places. The TJC stats for these are 2/4,3p  from memory – not big numbers, but there wasn’t much to go on for that Windsor angle but I found it interesting that it was 1 win in 2015 and another in 2016, and on different horses. Whether he is the go to man, we shall find out!

Nothing more to add.

3.Any general messages/updates etc

I planned to complete the ‘results review part 2’ in Sunday but that went out the window but it will be the first thing I do Monday after all posts are complete. I would like to see what the best approach to the ratings pointers is/which ones have done best etc- as I have said I think backing all G1s could be a ‘system’ in itself. 

The Month Ahead…

Well I will be spending this week completing the ‘TTP Flat’ stats pack.

The good folk at HorseRaceBase have added in a load of new ‘festivals’ which makes doing ‘big meeting trainer research’ much easier. During the rest of April you can expect some trainer notes on the following meetings: Punchestown/Fairyhouse/Scottish National/Perth 3 Day/Craven Meeting. There are a couple of other 2 day meetings- Cheltenham/Sandown

So, I will see what i can find for those and whether there is any useful info to send your way, to use as you please. Most of those will be Members Only, I may use the Craven Meeting notes as an example to those who may not yet know the wonders of ‘the club’ 🙂

There will be a trends report of sorts for Punchestown and I will target any big handicap hurdles/chases etc.

There are so many big races to come in the next month, including the Irish National and Scottish National. You will be pleased to hear I have a better record in those than The Grand National… Niche Market at 50s a highlight in 2009, just when I was getting into ‘stats/trends’ (£2.50 BFSP!) and Wayward Prince 33s+ in the 2015 Scottish National tipped on here. So, we shall see if we can find another.

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post complete