TIPS
none. No jumps races of interest.. BUT…
I plan to have a full ‘stat attack’ on the flat with the Heritage Handicaps but as yet have no historical record of success which would justify ‘official’ tips. So, you will get stats and shortlists and we will go from there! I will put forward 1 or 2 I like the most, for what that is worth, and we shall see how those ‘test tips’ get on. That is in the context of losing around 25 points with ‘flat tips’ last year, and I have some work to do on that front.
**
TEST TIPS…
3.35 Doncaster
(0/3,0p… -4)
(start as we mean to go on, main shortlist of 5, tip 3, 20/1 wins – prob could have knocked out Heaven’s Guest, four 1 point win bets anyone! I should go back and read my Festival notes again!…)
Instant Attraction – 1 point EW- 25/1 (general) (check place terms,a few diff options,will declare to 1/4 odds,4 places) UP
Master Carpenter – 1 point win – 22/1 / 20/1 (general) UP
Withernsea – 1 point win – 28/1 (general, BFSP may be worth a stab,as with MC above,possibly) UP
(4 points total which is my limit for a race like this)
Why?
Well the trends/stats analysis is below, these are very much based on my unique stats profile and if the handful of trends I used get broken, I was never destined to find the winner this year.
Instant Attraction- well he is just a solid handicapper at this level who has some decent runs to his name. He is very consistent and has ran well on his last two seasonal reappearances here, over 7f and 8f. He has big field handicapping form and also handles cut in the ground. Given my approach he is a must bet really, I can find nothing to put me off, certainly at that price. He can also race prominently in a field lacking in loads of out and out pace, and he is Geegeez Top Rated on the speed figures. Trainer is 0/7,3p in the last 14 days and they are going well enough. I will be disappointed if he isn’t in the mix, provided no track bias I am unaware of. There doesn’t appear to be a ‘pace bias’ from what I can see.
Master Carpenter- well he doesn’t have the best record fresh in recent years but he is on the stats shortlist and he handicap mark is falling. He has a touch of class about him and is a decent, solid horse for a race like this. It may be that they don’t go quick enough but at that price I thought he was worth a stab. He wasn’t in the best form when last seen either. He has a solid C2 record and handles a big field, which is always important. Just a question of fitness but if he is ready to go, he could run a big race. If he isn’t, he won’t place, hence my reluctance to go EW I think. I have no fitness niggles over IA above, based on recent evidence.
Withernsea- well he may not stay- who knows. He has only tried 8f twice before and as a 6 year old, there is a chance we haven’t quite seen the best of him. These 6-8 y0 handicappers can find improvement from somewhere for whatever reason and given his price I am not comfortably saying that he definitely won’t stay. He also doesn’t have the best record fresh but we know Fahey can ready them for this race and fairness 2 years ago he went close enough here over 6f. He has won well over 7f in heavy in a big field race here, and given there isn’t loads of pace on, he may well get away with it. I don’t know what the jockey situation is now with Fahey- I assume Hanagan may get first pick and it is good to see the ‘old firm’ back together, no doubt he may go close to being Champion Jockey (only 5/2 for that though, I did check) Hamilton has won on him though so he isn’t a negative. Anyway, at the price, given his place on my stats below and his trainer, I will have a stab.
And that’s the lot. I may not have even mentioned the winner, he may not even be mentioned below. That is the nature of these races but hopefully over the course of the season I can pick a few out. We shall see. (there is always the Summer Jumps to fall back on!)
**
The Lincoln Stats/Trends…
Looking at a horse aged 4-7, 0-2 wins over the distance (8f) and ran in a handicap LTO leaves:
Oh This Is Us/Steel Train/Eddystone Rock/Emell/Heaven’s Guest/Bravery/George Cinq/Instant Attraction/Master Carpenter/Withensea
9-5+ a negative and that does for Oh This Is Us.
Based on history, and ignoring any runs abroad LTO/recently,we want the last UK/Irish run to have been 1-15 days ago, or 121-240 days ago. Running at Wolvs LTO is a negative (Stell Train + Emell,who also both fall down on rest pattern) and we also want one that placed on one of their last 4 starts…
That would leave just two… Instant Attraction and Withensea
A proper working shortlist of 5 I think: Heaven’s Guest/Bravery WON 20/1 (bugger) /Instant Attraction/Master Carpenter/Withensea.
It would be fun if the winner came from there.
I will have a look in more detail at some point, through those shortlists, and may ‘tip’ something.
**
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
A King Flat/AW (16/1<)
3.15 Kemp – William Hunter
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
3.20 Strat – One For The Boss (16/1< guide)
5.05 Strat- Guanciale (16/1< guide)
**
Hugh Fowler – 2 year olds
The observant among you will have spotted Hugh’s thoughts below on the big 2 year old races from Doncaster today. Hugh is a bit of a ‘2 year old’ expert, as you can tell from reading his thoughts below. I am short on time today but will publish a proper intro to both Hugh and his methods in due course- probably after Aintree. His thoughts will become ‘feature posts’ and add something of great quality/interest throughout the flat season. I for one learn plenty every time I read one of his posts. Anyway, we have that to look forward to moving forwards. More in due course. For now you can flick through his comment below. (His first post of the season, last Sunday at Naas, found an easy 9/2 winner and I know a few of you had a nibble..)
**
+£700 in March to just £5 bets…
And finally, I thought I would share an email I just received from one of you good members. This is why all the hard work is worth it, and in truth why I bang on about my own Members Club, and indeed Geegeez Gold...
“Thank-you.
And that’s what it’s all about. It sounds like Shane is using the info on these pages and Geegeez to great effect. March has been a mad month in truth and it isn’t sustainable. But Shane has built up enough there to get through any downturn before the next batch of winners come. And it just goes to show you don’t need to be a big punter betting £20/£50s to have a bloody good time and make some decent profits. And well done to you fine judges who post comments etc, always plenty of winners spread around. ‘Team RTP’ continues to do the business.
And don’t forget… (shameless plug I know!)
You can take a 21 Day Free Trial of my Members Club HERE>>>
February was challenging for the jumps stats, but they have bounced back with +90 points in March, just backing everything, now +120 points for 2017 to date. And the daily TTP stats are just one aspect of what you get – plenty of stats reports/trainer snippets etc, esp for Aintree. You can also get free access to the full Trainer Track Profiles: Summer Jumps 2017.
**
Good luck with any bets today.
Josh
23 Responses
I had a go at the stats earlier this week and came up with instant attraction 33/1 & master Carpenter 40/1 so I hope your/our thinking has some validity
Good luck Andy, I think i will end up throwing something at those two no doubt. The approach definitely has validity.. well,my exact same approach has been successful with big jumps handicaps… certainly the shortlisting element. We will see over time if it can work on the flat also. You don’t need the pin to land on many 25s+ shots to have some fun over a season. It may not work in this race but am sure will highlight a few tasty winners moving forward. GL.
After going through the stats/trends t’other day I ended up with IA (glad I’m not the only one) @ 33’s and Withernsea @25’s. Will stick with them I think.
Mike
I think i will leave the flat to those who know what they are doing,shame the jumps seasons light is flickering now,lovely winner today over at wetherby Josh,don’t think i would have found that without TTP,the other big priced one a non runner, a few came close yesterday too
Hope you are not putting me in the ‘know what they are doing’ category haha, but the stats will hopefully help pass the summer months until the proper racing starts up again 🙂
Yep a few biggies have been running well in recent days, nice 22.00 BFSP winner there. I will have a little look at how all 16/1, 20/1+ shots have got on, suspect those figures will be decent enough also.
Just annoyed I didn’t have more than 1/2 point on and wasn’t more confident… handicap hurdle debut and a move in distance (down this time) – and he was 18s. Still, can’t be greedy. That was fun to watch. Thought the 40/1 bumper 3rd was coming to win at one stage also!
We shall see how the summer jumps goes also, some exciting stats in that pack.
I had place only bet on bumper horse and for a couple of seconds he looked like he was going to come good and win. Think that the winner could be a decent horse – need to check race times tomorrow as they give an indication to the strength of the race but a nice place return on a horse that can only improve
I think when you set your bar at prices 5/1+ once your getting a fair return on the shorter ones,the 14,16/1+ losers don’t really matter that much(and your not expecting much) and then a few come in together which really boosts the bank
I tend to back 1 point win the biggie and half point saver on the shorter one where there is 2 qualifiers
Given Instant Attraction has placed at the meeting in the past 2 years not to mention his solid run in a very competitive Royal Hunt Cup last year he will do for me.
March certainly went down as my worst punting month for my own personal bets for quite a long time but at least I managed to find a winner yesterday to slightly boost the spirits.
As well as Instant Attraction (I actually think if there is a speed bias Josh, it will be mid to high and past information seems to suggest that is the place to be although on limited info) I want to be on Noble Gift in the 15:15 at Kempton. Another one which seems to do well at this card having won this race 2 years ago and was just beaten in the Magnolia Listed stakes run 2 races before this one. Is back on a nice mark and does well on seasonal re-appearance. He is is 2/8, 5p at Kempton handicaps and Sheppard gets on well with him (1/3, 3p on AW handicaps). He gets a nice draw should go close and Sheppard is one of the best claimers when it comes to judging pace from the front. William Knight is in great form with his last 5 runners going 13212 with Sheppard on board for the 1st and 2nd.
I also want a bet on Agamemnon in the 15:05 at Uttoxeter. Pretty unexposed five year old who has ran some good races this year (ahead of Champion Bumper 3rd Claimantakinforgan in a Listed bumper on his 2nd start; 1l behind the 135 rated Get on the Yaeger 2 starts ago). He drops down to a class 4 here and O’Brien who is very good value for his 7lbs returns to the first time since winning his bumper on debut. He drops back in trip here and they apply the blinkers here to eek out extra improvement. He is effectively racing off a mark of 113 which I think is pretty low. Lacey has used O’Brien extremely well this season and they have had a mutely profitable year. This is a competitive class 4 but looked a good e/w bet.
Wild Hacked 3.15 K, has a lot going for it Nick…draw a bit of a downside and drifting out…
BOL.
Just a brief intro, Josh has kindly allowed me to post up my two year old race previews here. I usually follow them up with photos of the runners when I can attend and a review of what I saw. Last year these were on the B2yor.co.uk website but that is no longer active.
The Brocklesby is divided into two this year 4.10 and 4.45
Date & Title: 1st April Brocklesby 5f Mdn D1
4.25 –
3.75 Almane,
3.25 Last Page
2.75 Rocket Man Dan
2.5 Dragon’s Teeth
2.25 Autumn Lodge, Bendadalid, Billiebrookedit,
1.5 Afterthisone, Santry
.75 Primo’s Comet
.5 Furni Factors
Preview – Nothing achieves my top algorhythm score here. It is hard to see it not being between the first three. Of the others Dragon’s Teeth is only of interest because Jo Hughes had a 2yo runner in France 10 days ago that finished 2nd in a big field with Jurisprudance (goes in Div2) in third. She only appears to have had one debut winner in the last five years and none earlier than May so even if she does have her 2yos forward may still find one too good; particularly as Renato De Souza has never ridden a 2yo winner.
All the top three are by sires and from trainers that get early winners, high draws and prominent runners tend to have an edge. Both Egan on Last Page (8) and Beasley on Rocket Man Dan (6) can be relied upon to get their mounts up on the pace. It remains to be seen if Richard Fahey can dissuade Hanagan from trying to emulate Jamie Spencer on the 2yos as he seemed determined to do last season riding for Hamdan. If he just points and shoots here from draw (9) on Almane he may be hard to beat.
On balance I will side with Beasley on Rocket Man Dan. Dalgleish was good early season last year and Dandy Man has a great record in early season.
Date & Title: 1st April Brocklesby 5f Mdn D2
4.25 Requinto Dawn
3.25 Move To The Front, The Love Doctor
3 Hellovaqueen
2.75 Quick Skips Lad
2 Bee Machine, Black Orange, Cruel Clever Cat
1.5 Captain Kissinger
.75 One Last Hug
.5 Jurisprudance
Preview – Fahey’s Requinto Dawn comes out a clear top here and with Tony Hamilton rather than Paul Hanagan up looks a better prospect. Requinto’s first two debut winners last year in his first season were in May suggesting that he gets precocious types albeit from a small sample.
Both Move To The Front (Clive Cox)and The Love Doctor (David Evans) are from less prolific 2yo sires but both perfectly capable of producing the winner of a race like this. In previous years Clive Cox has had the second in this race. David Evans has thrown a lot of darts on opening day but only had perhaps one winner from 20 back in 2009. His runners usually just lacking in quality and improving for the run.
Of the lower scores three jump out for distinct reasons.
Hellovaqueen is trained by Bill Turner who has specialised in this race but is on the downgrade and unless she is an outstanding looker is an unlikely winner despite the fact she will be trained to the minute. Also his grandson on board is a bit of a liability.
Black Orange by Pastoral Pursuits is trained by Gay Kelleway, she is well up to producing a winner fto but only tends to have one a season, the 7lb claimer is also a bit of a worry as he is without a 2yo winner as yet and is only 1/22 on turf.
Jurisprudance ran in France on 23rd March and was 3rd of 17 on soft over 4.5f. The big question here is whether Mr Baker can get his charge to repeat the dose. Certainly would not enter my calculations under normal circumstances but that previous experience will be very helpful and he may place. I am also a sceptic as far as Steve Drowne’s ability on 2yos is concerned.
Requinto Dawn and Move To the Front are drawn 10 and 11 and would look most likely to have this between them although David Evans is bound to have The Love Doctor wound up tight too.
I can’t really split Kirby (Move To the Front) and Hamilton (Requinto Dawn) other than by sire which would just give the Requinto colt the edge.
Great write up Hugh and thanks for the effort.
That B2yor site is packed with interesting stuff (just ‘lost’ 2 hours in it 🙂 and not even scratched the surface). Must have taken a huge amount of effort over the years. Is that why you’ve parked it? Time?
Hi Steven, I started off just using B2yor as a resource around 2007, then asked Nick to whom the website belonged to help me choosing a trainer to buy a 2yo for a group of friends. This led to a success and an obsession with 2yos that in turn led to my starting to supply photos to the site for a couple of years then last year at Nick’s invitation writing the post race reports. These can be found by looking in 2016 results, and clicking on any race with the prefix VP other than Nottingham.
Nice one Hugh, went for the FC
Nice winner with Requinto Dawn……
Cheers Hugh.
Great stuff Hugh, 7.97 BFSP winner of Div 2. Easily.
must admit thought i was going mad when i came up with Withernsea for the Lincoln, glad i’m not the only one.
i should have posted last night when there was more value but fell asleep!
That course specialist Prince of Arran goes in the 3.10 KP. was 8/1 but may have gone now?
I also like Examiner in the 2,25 Don, got on at 14/1.
In the 5.25 Utt I like Optimistic Bias for a win.
Good luck
My working shortlist……
Dolphin Vista, Oh This is Us, Doncha & Zhui Feng.
Don’t like the flat really. It’s the lure…
Great win, I backed Bravery at 34.7 BSP, not making the same mistake as with Flying Tiger 😀
There’s nothing wrong with picking 5 horses at such huge odds. Your shortlists are clearly awesome.
Well I am glad someone used my info better than I, which is often the case! Oh was that his BFSP. Time for a lie down.
In fairness I could have crossed out HG comfortably. Winner probably the most interesting of the lot given profile, trainer etc. A very slow learner at times! 4 x 1 point win bets the way forwards in these flat handicaps maybe.
Enjoy!
ST Saviour 17.5/1 BFSP has lifted my mood for the Members post! ‘RP 10/1+’ qualifier in the end, 14/1 ISP. Super.