none. No jumps races of interest.. BUT…
I plan to have a full ‘stat attack’ on the flat with the Heritage Handicaps but as yet have no historical record of success which would justify ‘official’ tips. So, you will get stats and shortlists and we will go from there! I will put forward 1 or 2 I like the most, for what that is worth, and we shall see how those ‘test tips’ get on. That is in the context of losing around 25 points with ‘flat tips’ last year, and I have some work to do on that front.
(start as we mean to go on, main shortlist of 5, tip 3, 20/1 wins – prob could have knocked out Heaven’s Guest, four 1 point win bets anyone! I should go back and read my Festival notes again!…)
Instant Attraction – 1 point EW- 25/1 (general) (check place terms,a few diff options,will declare to 1/4 odds,4 places) UP
Master Carpenter – 1 point win – 22/1 / 20/1 (general) UP
Withernsea – 1 point win – 28/1 (general, BFSP may be worth a stab,as with MC above,possibly) UP
(4 points total which is my limit for a race like this)
Well the trends/stats analysis is below, these are very much based on my unique stats profile and if the handful of trends I used get broken, I was never destined to find the winner this year.
Instant Attraction- well he is just a solid handicapper at this level who has some decent runs to his name. He is very consistent and has ran well on his last two seasonal reappearances here, over 7f and 8f. He has big field handicapping form and also handles cut in the ground. Given my approach he is a must bet really, I can find nothing to put me off, certainly at that price. He can also race prominently in a field lacking in loads of out and out pace, and he is Geegeez Top Rated on the speed figures. Trainer is 0/7,3p in the last 14 days and they are going well enough. I will be disappointed if he isn’t in the mix, provided no track bias I am unaware of. There doesn’t appear to be a ‘pace bias’ from what I can see.
Master Carpenter- well he doesn’t have the best record fresh in recent years but he is on the stats shortlist and he handicap mark is falling. He has a touch of class about him and is a decent, solid horse for a race like this. It may be that they don’t go quick enough but at that price I thought he was worth a stab. He wasn’t in the best form when last seen either. He has a solid C2 record and handles a big field, which is always important. Just a question of fitness but if he is ready to go, he could run a big race. If he isn’t, he won’t place, hence my reluctance to go EW I think. I have no fitness niggles over IA above, based on recent evidence.
Withernsea- well he may not stay- who knows. He has only tried 8f twice before and as a 6 year old, there is a chance we haven’t quite seen the best of him. These 6-8 y0 handicappers can find improvement from somewhere for whatever reason and given his price I am not comfortably saying that he definitely won’t stay. He also doesn’t have the best record fresh but we know Fahey can ready them for this race and fairness 2 years ago he went close enough here over 6f. He has won well over 7f in heavy in a big field race here, and given there isn’t loads of pace on, he may well get away with it. I don’t know what the jockey situation is now with Fahey- I assume Hanagan may get first pick and it is good to see the ‘old firm’ back together, no doubt he may go close to being Champion Jockey (only 5/2 for that though, I did check) Hamilton has won on him though so he isn’t a negative. Anyway, at the price, given his place on my stats below and his trainer, I will have a stab.
And that’s the lot. I may not have even mentioned the winner, he may not even be mentioned below. That is the nature of these races but hopefully over the course of the season I can pick a few out. We shall see. (there is always the Summer Jumps to fall back on!)
The Lincoln Stats/Trends…
Looking at a horse aged 4-7, 0-2 wins over the distance (8f) and ran in a handicap LTO leaves:
Oh This Is Us/Steel Train/Eddystone Rock/Emell/Heaven’s Guest/Bravery/George Cinq/Instant Attraction/Master Carpenter/Withensea
9-5+ a negative and that does for Oh This Is Us.
Based on history, and ignoring any runs abroad LTO/recently,we want the last UK/Irish run to have been 1-15 days ago, or 121-240 days ago. Running at Wolvs LTO is a negative (Stell Train + Emell,who also both fall down on rest pattern) and we also want one that placed on one of their last 4 starts…
That would leave just two… Instant Attraction and Withensea
A proper working shortlist of 5 I think: Heaven’s Guest/Bravery WON 20/1 (bugger) /Instant Attraction/Master Carpenter/Withensea.
It would be fun if the winner came from there.
I will have a look in more detail at some point, through those shortlists, and may ‘tip’ something.
A King Flat/AW (16/1<)
3.15 Kemp – William Hunter
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
3.20 Strat – One For The Boss (16/1< guide)
5.05 Strat- Guanciale (16/1< guide)
Hugh Fowler – 2 year olds
The observant among you will have spotted Hugh’s thoughts below on the big 2 year old races from Doncaster today. Hugh is a bit of a ‘2 year old’ expert, as you can tell from reading his thoughts below. I am short on time today but will publish a proper intro to both Hugh and his methods in due course- probably after Aintree. His thoughts will become ‘feature posts’ and add something of great quality/interest throughout the flat season. I for one learn plenty every time I read one of his posts. Anyway, we have that to look forward to moving forwards. More in due course. For now you can flick through his comment below. (His first post of the season, last Sunday at Naas, found an easy 9/2 winner and I know a few of you had a nibble..)
+£700 in March to just £5 bets…
And finally, I thought I would share an email I just received from one of you good members. This is why all the hard work is worth it, and in truth why I bang on about my own Members Club, and indeed Geegeez Gold...
And that’s what it’s all about. It sounds like Shane is using the info on these pages and Geegeez to great effect. March has been a mad month in truth and it isn’t sustainable. But Shane has built up enough there to get through any downturn before the next batch of winners come. And it just goes to show you don’t need to be a big punter betting £20/£50s to have a bloody good time and make some decent profits. And well done to you fine judges who post comments etc, always plenty of winners spread around. ‘Team RTP’ continues to do the business.
And don’t forget… (shameless plug I know!)
You can take a 21 Day Free Trial of my Members Club HERE>>>
February was challenging for the jumps stats, but they have bounced back with +90 points in March, just backing everything, now +120 points for 2017 to date. And the daily TTP stats are just one aspect of what you get – plenty of stats reports/trainer snippets etc, esp for Aintree. You can also get free access to the full Trainer Track Profiles: Summer Jumps 2017.
Good luck with any bets today.