TTP Jumps Notes: 28/03/17 (complete)

Results update x1 + All Quals + RPs… (Ratings Pointer added to 5.10…) + Bet of The Day + Notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

HEXHAM

2.30 – Orioninverness (micro class) 14,30 8/1 WON 8/1>5/1

3.30-

Barry’s Jack (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 5/2 2nd

Beyondtemptation (hncp hurdle) H3  12/1 (‘RP 10/1+ qual) UP 20/1

 

SOUTHWELL

2.10 – Gorran Haven (all hncps) 30 G1 5/1 UP

5.10 – Indian Harbour (NHF) 14,30 H1 10/1 (RP 10/1+ qual) UP 5/1 (40p R4)

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day… (test, 6/16, +36 points) 

Bet of The Day…

2.10 Southwell – Gorran Haven – 1 point win 5/1 (BV/Coral/BetfS) 9/2 (gen) UP 5/1

(he can go in th e’not yet very good’ category…a bit to learn, jumped ok if not a tad too big,and was out-paced it seemed- no turn of gears, glimpses of promise. Maybe he needs stepping up in trip/more testing ground. Still plenty of time on his side.) 

My general approach with the ‘bet of the day’ has been to try and focus on the unexposed/younger ones who have yet to show their true potential in said code – handicap hurdle/chases, and reasons for why they may improve. I think all winners to date have probably ticked that box and so does the selection today.

I think 5/1, 9/2 is just about ok and I hope he is punted in. This is a shocker of a race. I mean really bad. If he can’t be going close here you would be disappointed if you owned him. He really ‘could be anything’ to use one of my favourite phrases and you guessed it, that includes ‘not being very good’! He has potted around in some Novice chases, one of them in Might Bites race at Donny. He has ran ok and has clearly done something to come out top rated on Dr Peter May’s speed figures approach. I thought Dunne was an odd booking but then he has ridden him the last twice and clearly knows the horse. This is only his 5th handicap chase ride for the yard, 1 place in the other 4. It may be an owners thing but in any case he is a decent rider and there won’t be any excuses on that front if the horse is good enough.

He looks worth a go. He could have plenty in hand here and they have set him up to win a few handicaps on the bounce, or try to at least.

**

Of the rest… well there are 2 ‘RP 10/1+’ qualifiers on that strategy… Beyondtemptation is a bit long in the tooth now and to my eyes there seems to be a lot of pace on paper in here, which means if she is to lead she may end up doing too much. And there are a few interesting ones in here. I rarely bet EW but such is her consistency I may do with her here. I suspect she will give any backers a good run for their money and consistency at this level can get you a long way. She has form in ‘Hexham Heavy’ as well, and that counts for plenty- it can get very testing here and on the front end will be the place to be. And actually, as I look at her form a bit closer… she hacked up over CD in a C3 here last year, off effectively OR93. She races off 98 here with the claim. She could go close here.

Indian Harbour could be worth EW support also- you do have to fear NH horses trained by Henderson/Skelton/Hobbs. Well, I do. But this one has fitness and experience on his side and has ran ok in his two bumpers to date and could well improve for this better ground. He will give it a good go no doubt and the trainer is in form. He just could not be good enough but you never know. 10s is fair to find out.

Orioninverness – as I write I don’t have a penny on and may keep an eye on the market. He is 0/11,1p in his career and has been shocking over fences to date, not running any kind of race and his jumping has been shoddy. He doesn’t come here in much form either. But Russell farms these Hexham C5 handicaps and second guessing them can be dangerous. You would like to think he will improve at some point but on what we have seen to date it would be a start if he just had a clean round of jumping- maybe these really testing conditions will suit. Russell’s, due to how she trains (long stiff uphill gallop), tend to just keep going, which is why her moderate horses probably do well around here.

**

So, they are my subjective thoughts for the day. Leave/ignore as you please!

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS UPDATE: 

  1. All Quals 2017 to date: HERE>>>
  2. Ratings Pointers Only: HERE>>> (detail on which ratings etc to follow in monthly review) 

Note: I will have a proper look come the end of the month, but overall it has been a good month so far. Backing all qualifiers to BOG with a generally available price has won backers +68 points, to take the ‘back everything’ approach to +99 points for 2017 to date. These have overtaken BFSP now, which is still a healthy +34 points for the month, +79 points total. (exc commission, so +74 points or so) That is the foundation for success.

#1 Advised Strategy: ‘Ratings Pointers 10/1+’ 

4/21 for the month to date, +40 BFSP (after commission), +29 BOG.

Total 2017 to date: 11/77, +87 BFSP, 113% ROI.

The results for ‘all qualifiers/back everything’ are from 647 bets. ‘RP 10/1+’ approach are from 77 bets.  Hopefully it is clear why I advise that as the #1 strategy based on what we know to date.  From that foundation you/I can try and back some of the other winners the qualifiers throw up.

I will get the other spreadsheet complete asap (now to be posted Tuesday)  and carry out a deeper review come the end of the month looking at all qualifiers 10/1+, the best ‘ratings pointers’, Saturdays, and probably all 20/1+ shots.

 

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Post complete.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. Hi Josh

    Another fantastic day today . I started following the stats pack with ratings pointers on 20 December. My original betting bank was a modest £250 and I aimed to stake 2% of my bank per selection (4% if it was included in both ratings). After a few ups and downs over the first couple of months ( anyone remember Boxing Day?!) things have really taken off over the last 6 weeks. Increasing my stakes as my betting bank has increased means that I am now at the maximum level that I wish to bet at of £20 per selection and my profits have now topped £1000!!

    I’m under no illusions that this can continue indefinitely and that I may be provoking the betting gods just by posting this! However I did feel it was appropriate to thank you for an excellent service.

    Cheers

    Steve

    1. Hi Steve, thanks for your comment, that has made my day and it has only just gone 9am! That’s what it is all about- so pleased you have found an approach that suits your betting style/temperament etc, and you can’t sniff at 1k profit from a first bet of £5 per point. Super.

      Yes please don’t remind me about Boxing Day! But, you stuck with it and gave the approach the patience it deserves, and have been rewarded. February was a bit of a struggle also at times. That is the nature with an approach that has no odds caps etc. There will be a few low moments but long term we should be fine. The methodology behind the ratings pointers won’t be changing- they are a constant- so that should give confidence moving forward.

      Gerry’s point below is a good one… I may suggest starting again with the Flat, or having a separate bank in any case- no logical reason why they won’t have similar results.

      When I review the month/year to date in a couple of days I will have a look at the different Ratings Pointers permutations etc (double qualified etc) as clearly the data builds up with those all the time, as it does with them all since I pulled my finger out and started recording results properly at the start of the year.

      Long may the profits last (but be prepared for another bumpy patch!…)

      Josh

      1. Cheers Josh and thanks to Gerry for his comments.

        Just so I can get my thinking straight, will the Jumps stats come to a finish at the end of April and will there be a flat equivalent and if so when will it start?

        1. Good question..

          There will be a Flat TTP. When that starts I have yet to decide- researching/pulling it together as we speak but that has many hours ahead until complete. I will probably aim for the week after Aintree.

          Jumps… well the guide’s stats are for the calendar year and there is the odd track that races over the summer- Southwell, Fontwell, Market R off the top of my head, whereby the stats will still be applicable. So, they will be posted also.

          There is also ‘summer jumping’ from the ‘summer only’ tracks- Worcester, Newton A, Perth, Stratford.

          I would just have two separate banks I think, for jumps + flat. That may be the best way forward.
          Josh

          1. (and where the stats come from will be clearly marked out – I will probably just add a ‘TTP: Jumps’ TTP Flat’ and TTP Summer Jumps parts to section 1 above. And you can follow/track/keep an eye on whatever bits you please)

          2. Cheers Josh

            I think that I will follow your advice and set up a flat only betting bank. Having checked back through my records my jumps bank fell to as low as £110 at one point. Therefore I think that I will increase my bank to £500 and stake 1% of my bank (2% for a dual selection). It might mean slower growth, but will reduce the risk of the bank running out.

  2. Well done steve,my advice would be to put aside the profit you have made at the end of the jumps season,around end of april,and start back at 250 for the flat season,the flat can be very hairy especially at the start,even if you blow that bank you still have 500 profit to continue with next jumps season

  3. 330H This is a much weaker event (0-120) than Ryedale Racer’s first h’cap (0-140) with all the others eligible for a 0-115, so 7/1 or 15/2 offers something approximating to ‘value’ , in my view, despite not being generous at first glance.

    1. Good luck Chris, a few nicer younger types in this race, him being one of them. Looks a poor enough race in general, and he looks to hold some sort of chance I suppose. Jefferson in decent form again. GL

    2. I have RR top of my ratings [no recommendation lol]….and along with 2 others is a CD performer. B Hughes up is also a plus.

      Tony Mc.

  4. Your right Josh this is has bad has it gets over the sticks,supprised there was no mention of The Wexfordian I know it was only a selling hurdle last time but he ran okay,his chase mark is 4lb lower so I think he will be there abouts,BoB

    1. Yep you can make a case for a few no doubt and one of them will be winning- Bailey’s is weak in the market so my expectations have been lowered! But, that doesn’t mean he wont be going close. My approach on these pages is very much ‘TTP qualifier’ first, rather than looking in depth at all other runners in a race to influence decision- although clearly I have a glance.
      I thought 7/2 was short for him – given he is 0/5,0p over fences and they have tried him over longer trips- and that last race he seemed to be out-paced over 16f up that stiff Leicester finish. His jumping hasn’t been great also- you do wonder if he may get tapped for toe around here- or in any case go a pace that leads to problems jumping. I personally wouldn’t be anywhere near 7/2, but he may well hack up! Maybe he will put it all together, and it is a very poor race. He is at least in some kind of form!
      GL

      1. Its funny how bad races seem to divide opinion since the one I was looking at was Heavenly Promise given he has come out of a hot C4 race (3/6, 4p for horses which has come out of it) and trainer form (finally had a winner recently after not having one for two months) and past stats (6/26, 9p +42 combining with the jockey in handicap chases including 2/3 at the track in the past 2 years). Early nibble has been a positive.

  5. I agree with the focus on unexposed horses and debutants, I find that those hold a lot of value.
    As for the race with Gorran Haven I’ll be dutching him with Duhallowcountry who is also great value.

      1. Thanks. Just noticed that Duhallowcountry is in the top 10 drifters of the day so we’ll see how he runs. But yesterday I had a massive BOG win with Lord Murphy so anything can happen. I backed at 3/1 and he drifted to 8/1.

    1. that was close to my reaction,although I may have had something on as winners price came in, around 7s. My own pref clearly for the other,and with stake, market spoke in the end- more prominent tactics and i suppose I should have just trusted her C5 handicap stats which are so solid.
      Damn. You have to get used to missing the odd winner with this approach, although me steering you to another in same race clearly didn’t help! Sorry about that.

      1. Previous results & TimeForm comments saying it was poor at jumping put me off, damn them! Missed the only winner of the day 🙁
        Now I remember why I pay someone else to make the judgments for me 🙂
        Back to backing blindly from now on.

        1. Yep, well that is what the strategies are there for, although he didn’t qualify on the #1 advised strategy so I wouldn’t worry about it too much. It happens. Missing 20s+ shots are the ones that really hurt!!

    2. I ditched O with Oak Vintage…then took some more as it shortened..
      I took 12s first off then 15/2…. which made for a good bet…I normally don’t like ditching…so I’m chuffed. But know the feeling of thinking ‘Bollocks’ lol.

      Tony Mc.

    1. Don’t rub it in Martin haha, tried my best to put you off on the free post! Well done, great price. Will declare at 8s, not sure how long 10s was around, although may have hit bigger, but was only with 2 firms. Still can’t work out if I am annoyed or not he wasn’t bet of the day (unexposed in code)- at least he wasn’t a monster price Could have approached his profile a bit better with hindsight, but that is always the way!

      1. i back them all Josh and with my overcomplicated staking plan it was a 3pt bet, total staked 30pts return 45pts , up 15pts for the day, since start up 284pts

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