FREE DAILY POST: 26/03/17 (Complete)

Ulster National Tips… + micro systems


A trip over the Irish Sea today…


3.50 Downpatrick 

Love Rory – 1 point win – 14/1 (SJ/Lad) 12/1 (general) UP (ducked out, and loose horse tried to take out our winner..a few times…)

Anseanachai Cliste – 1 point win – 11/1 (PP/BetfSports) 10/1 (general) WON 11/1 > 8/1


Stats Shortlist:

I looked at a ‘trends profile’ for this race in Saturday’s members’ post and the three stats I looked at were 11-7 or less on back (exc claims) , 7 or fewer handicap chase runs and Top 4 at least once on last three starts. Those stats leave…

Baby Bach / Love Rory / Angus Milan / Anseanachai Cliste

Baby Bach is a bit too inexperienced for me over fences, 0/3,0p and in any case doesn’t look in any form. Angus Milan is 15/2 which may be ok- he is unexposed over this trip and is in some sort of form- but he has yet to show any form over 3 miles and there is just too much of a stamina unknown for me at his price- were he double that I may have rolled the dice to find out given he is on the shortlist. But he isn’t, so I haven’t!

That then leaves two…

Anseanachai Cliste- well he is just fascinating given he comes from the pointing field and is totally unexposed under rules- with some ok runs back in the day. This is only his 7th start under rules and he actually ticks another profile box for the number of chase runs he has. Indeed on all the 19/19 and 10/10 stats, I think he has the perfect profile out of all of them, ticking every box. Given he is a double figure price and given my approach, that really makes him a must bet! When I look at horses like this i think of Gonalston Cloud- that decent enough staying chaser for Nick Kent- who before a rules run last year from memory, had been hacking up in points- I was dismissive of his chance in a race, more through ignorance of pointing form and I suppose you always fear the unknown. Anyway i think he hacked up that day and ‘point to point’ fans no doubt got stuck in. Well, this one couldn’t come here in better form, having hacked up on many recent starts- i lose count. Apparently it is ‘decent’ pointing form.  One of those was over 4 miles. He is also a prominent racer and there is no horse in here that has led/tried to make all on recent starts- he could well get a lead if he wants it. I have no idea if he will be good enough. The jockey claim helps with being out the handicap and a few have won this race having very low weights on their backs. He could simply be anything under rules. He is clearly fit and well. He could have any amount in hand. Or his form simply cannot match some of these. Given everything above and 10/1+, I will pay to find out.

Love Rory – Another at a decent price here who represents last year’s winning trainer. That caught my eye. As did the fact Bolger has only sent 16 horses here in 5 years, 6 have won, 10 have placed. This one has had a couple of hurdle runs this season and a non handicap chase- over banks I think (cross country) and this may have been a plan- that would have protected any mark in any case. He has also placed at the track over fences so at least has some experience of the track. He has form on better ground. The trip is an unknown. He has only tried beyond 3m4 on Chetltenham’s cross country track and he doesn’t seem to have liked that experience from what I can see of those three runs. He has had a few chase runs but is 0/6,3p in handicap chases, so in this sphere at least, is unexposed. He also gets first time headgear. He does have an inexperienced rider on but it seems the trainer knows him well enough and he is 1/6 in chases for him, this only his 9th chase ride under rules.

So, given their prominence on the shortlist and their double figure prices, I thought they were worth a dart. We shall see how that pans out. The last time we ventured to Ireland was for the Handicap Hurdle and we manged to find a 50/1 placed horses there that a few of us backed EW I believe.

Of the rest.. well I will just mention Federici who won this race last year for Bolger. Now with McCain he will appreciate this better ground and he can race prominently. He ran ok at Catterick and is an interesting contender to try and follow up. He is exposed enough but may be worth saver material. We shall see.

The rest, including him, fall down on a few of my stats and having flicked through them I wouldn’t want to be on any others at the prices anyway I don’t think. It has an open enough feel about it.

GL if you follow me in!



Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.30 Hereford- Still Believing (12/1<)




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That will be all for today. Josh



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19 Responses

  1. Hi Josh, I seem to remember that that Anseanachai Cliste was to run at Cheltenham and travelled there only to be withdrawn because one of his stable staff had carried a prohibited substance into the stables. Not sure of the detail, but if he was considered good enough for a go at Cheltenham it adds spice.

    1. Ah, is that the one- very good memory! I forget which one but it was a long distance chase wasn’t it, from memory… but yep, that is some sort of sign. Was it the Foxhunters? So, maybe this isn’t a plan as such but certainly an interesting contender. I had to have a go really.

      1. Yep it was the Foxhunter so this is very much an after thought. Here is what I wrote in my Foxhunter preview.

        Anseanachai Cliste – A horse I remember well from his time when owned by David Maxwell. I saw him run in a couple of points at Godstone under David and he didn’t look like a horse that wanted to know. He then ran in a hunter chase at Warwick when Will Biddick rode him and again he just wasn’t interested and pulled up. That was in 2015 and he went back to Ireland after that. He surprised me when finishing 5th at Leopardtown (in front of On The Fringe) last year and then he surprised me again when I saw how short he was in the betting for this. Following Leopardstown he went on to win 7 races on the bounce! I can’t quite believe it is the same horse I witnessed in 2015. Horses he beat include Valmy Baie and Quiet Account so the form isn’t bad. He is clearly a much better horse than he used to be and easily won a weak race at the beginning of the month.

  2. Very far removed from the Ulster National but it is the first 2yo race of the season in Ireland today. The 2.10 at Naas.

    I don’t usually look at the Irish 2yo racing but as I am champing at the bit for some 2yo action I thought I would apply my method.

    To my eyes the likeliest winner is Moonlight Bay. This is purely on trainer, jockey and sire stats. Looking at the top three in the betting the favourite is trained by Keatley who is only 5/63 with 2yos. Market is probably based on Jockey booking. Not sure that soft/heavy is best for Zebedees either, 11% heavy,, 8% soft.

    2nd favourite is trained by Bolger, ridden by Manning which explains support but Vocalised is only 3% at 5/6f and 5% on soft, o/46 on heavy.

    Moonlight Bay is by Pivotal, 45% winners to runners over 5/6f, 14% strike rate, 12% on heavy, 13% on soft. Kevin Prendergast has a good strike rate 17% at Naas with his 2yos and I seem to recall may have won this race before. She also has to carry 5lbs less as a filly.

    It was won by a 25/1 shot last year and if I was to select an outsider it would be Spirit of Dreams

  3. When you’re hot you’re hot! Didn’t think there was much a chance of us getting back up there. Money back as a free bet on Rory as well for me from BetStars.

    1. Yep appear to be in one of my streaks haha. Will take +72 tipping points in 13 days. 🙂
      Yep loose horse caused him problems, jock had to check at a few fences, suspect may have tried to kick on earlier as he clearly has plenty of stamina, which won it in the end, as did his superb jumping. Anyway, got the job done.

  4. Ballela Boy 6/1
    14:50 Downpatrick
    Andratx 7/1
    15:20 Downpatrick
    Anseanachai Cliste 8/1
    15:50 Downpatrick
    Cant Pay Wont Pay 16/1
    16:50 Downpatrick
    ew lucky 15
    c’mon can’t pay won’t pay

  5. English Translation,The smart storyteller,Top analysis again Josh,maybe irish racing is becoming your forte too

    1. Ha, well I think that big race trends/stats approach may well be! My approach to the stats/these races, seems to work on the shortlisting front. For now anyway.

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