A trip over the Irish Sea today…
Love Rory – 1 point win – 14/1 (SJ/Lad) 12/1 (general) UP (ducked out, and loose horse tried to take out our winner..a few times…)
Anseanachai Cliste – 1 point win – 11/1 (PP/BetfSports) 10/1 (general) WON 11/1 > 8/1
I looked at a ‘trends profile’ for this race in Saturday’s members’ post and the three stats I looked at were 11-7 or less on back (exc claims) , 7 or fewer handicap chase runs and Top 4 at least once on last three starts. Those stats leave…
Baby Bach / Love Rory / Angus Milan / Anseanachai Cliste
Baby Bach is a bit too inexperienced for me over fences, 0/3,0p and in any case doesn’t look in any form. Angus Milan is 15/2 which may be ok- he is unexposed over this trip and is in some sort of form- but he has yet to show any form over 3 miles and there is just too much of a stamina unknown for me at his price- were he double that I may have rolled the dice to find out given he is on the shortlist. But he isn’t, so I haven’t!
That then leaves two…
Anseanachai Cliste- well he is just fascinating given he comes from the pointing field and is totally unexposed under rules- with some ok runs back in the day. This is only his 7th start under rules and he actually ticks another profile box for the number of chase runs he has. Indeed on all the 19/19 and 10/10 stats, I think he has the perfect profile out of all of them, ticking every box. Given he is a double figure price and given my approach, that really makes him a must bet! When I look at horses like this i think of Gonalston Cloud- that decent enough staying chaser for Nick Kent- who before a rules run last year from memory, had been hacking up in points- I was dismissive of his chance in a race, more through ignorance of pointing form and I suppose you always fear the unknown. Anyway i think he hacked up that day and ‘point to point’ fans no doubt got stuck in. Well, this one couldn’t come here in better form, having hacked up on many recent starts- i lose count. Apparently it is ‘decent’ pointing form. One of those was over 4 miles. He is also a prominent racer and there is no horse in here that has led/tried to make all on recent starts- he could well get a lead if he wants it. I have no idea if he will be good enough. The jockey claim helps with being out the handicap and a few have won this race having very low weights on their backs. He could simply be anything under rules. He is clearly fit and well. He could have any amount in hand. Or his form simply cannot match some of these. Given everything above and 10/1+, I will pay to find out.
Love Rory – Another at a decent price here who represents last year’s winning trainer. That caught my eye. As did the fact Bolger has only sent 16 horses here in 5 years, 6 have won, 10 have placed. This one has had a couple of hurdle runs this season and a non handicap chase- over banks I think (cross country) and this may have been a plan- that would have protected any mark in any case. He has also placed at the track over fences so at least has some experience of the track. He has form on better ground. The trip is an unknown. He has only tried beyond 3m4 on Chetltenham’s cross country track and he doesn’t seem to have liked that experience from what I can see of those three runs. He has had a few chase runs but is 0/6,3p in handicap chases, so in this sphere at least, is unexposed. He also gets first time headgear. He does have an inexperienced rider on but it seems the trainer knows him well enough and he is 1/6 in chases for him, this only his 9th chase ride under rules.
So, given their prominence on the shortlist and their double figure prices, I thought they were worth a dart. We shall see how that pans out. The last time we ventured to Ireland was for the Coral.ie Handicap Hurdle and we manged to find a 50/1 placed horses there that a few of us backed EW I believe.
Of the rest.. well I will just mention Federici who won this race last year for Bolger. Now with McCain he will appreciate this better ground and he can race prominently. He ran ok at Catterick and is an interesting contender to try and follow up. He is exposed enough but may be worth saver material. We shall see.
The rest, including him, fall down on a few of my stats and having flicked through them I wouldn’t want to be on any others at the prices anyway I don’t think. It has an open enough feel about it.
GL if you follow me in!
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
3.30 Hereford- Still Believing (12/1<)
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That will be all for today. Josh