TTP Jumps Notes: 26/03/17 (complete)

All quals + RPs+ bet of the day

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

 

WINCANTON 

2.45 – Flaming Charmer (hncp chase) H3 9/1 UP

4.15 – Cucklington (hncp chase) 7/1 Fell

 

Bonus 

3.20 Downpatrick- Andratx (Irish stats/hncp hurdle) 25/1 WON 25/1>7/1 

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HEREFORD (notes) 

note: remember the following selections do not officially count in results. These selections are based on stats for the three years before the track was then closed for a few seasons. Use/ignore as you please..

3.00-

Vinnieslittlelamb (all hncps + hncp chase) 9/2 PU

Tara Mac (hncp chase) H3 3/1 UP

3.30 – Drumviredy (all hncps) G3 6/1 UP

4.30 – Spirit of Hale (hncp hurdle) 14,30 6/1 UP

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day Test: 6/15, +37 points 

Bet of The Day…

4.30 – Hereford – Spirit of Hale – 1 point win – 6/1 (general) UP *

*ah turns out they haven’t been playing silly buggers, he just isn’t ready yet/slow… looks a big raw horse who was green at times, got badly out-paced but then plodded on ok. Maybe he needs much further or quite a bit more time to grow into that frame. Looks a chaser in the making for sure. 

This one is just about worth a go at 6s I think. I did have a nibble last night at 9s given what I wrote below, on the chance he may be backed. If I were sat here writing and he hadn’t moved in the market then I doubt I would be putting him up as a ‘bet of the day’ as it is the type of profile where I like to see support- especially when they have done so little to date. In fairness the ground looks to have been atrocious on his last two starts so he may appreciate this ‘better’ ground. And he clearly wasn’t meant to run well in those races. Handicaps have clearly been the aim I think. Anyway, as below, the trainer is in cracking form and her handicap hurdle debut stats are decent. The market suggests better is expected here on what is a shocker of a race and he has the most interesting profile today at the prices. The market may of course be a red herring at this early stage and any drift out may spell danger. But in what is a weak race I have a feeling we will see more today. This is a track she used to target and from the 3 runners she has sent here this season, one has placed.

Note from last night.. I will keep an eye on that Spirit of Hale in the 4.30 Hereford… he makes handicap hurdle debut and the trainer is 3/11 with such types in the last 2 years. She is also in sublime form…5/16,8p last 30 days, 2/7,4p last 14 days. This one has taken 5 hurdle runs to get a mark, as he hasn’t shown anything. That may be deliberate but there is no real distance move or change in race conditions. I think he will either be smashed in and probably hack up, or he just isn’t very good! It will be interesting what the market does.

 

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

3.50 Downpatrick 

A am not leaping up and down to go wading into what looks a pretty moderate affair to my eyes. But, looking at a profile of 11-7 or less on back, 7 or fewer handicap chase runs and top 4 on one of last three starts would leave…

Baby Back (PU LTO a neg) / Love Rory / Angus Milan / Anseanachai Cliste

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Any tips for the above race will be in the free post. Just about to have a proper look.

 

**

KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

  1. Betfair have the 14.45 down as 13.45 when everyone else has those runners listed for 14.45. When they correct this will bets need to be placed again or will they automatically transfer to the correct time?

    1. Jamie, Betfair use some kind of smart software that gives the race time at the users location. So if you are +5 hours say in New York it will show that on the Race time. Hence before the UK’s clocks where reset it would show 13:45 this automatically correct’s. All bets placed before are good and can’t be cancelled.

      1. Thanks Gary, you were right. I didn’t want to go out thinking I’d got the bets on the night before then find out they’d been cancelled when the time was corrected.

  2. There is Venetia Pressurize,class horse on heavy,she is on winning mark with Charlie Deutsch ,stamina is enigmatic,never run on 3miles 2:45 WINCANTON

  3. 2 winners so far with Moss on The Mill and Easter In Paris,I have gone against the Bet of The Day with Action Dancer,but may have a go as its 7/1 now,Oliver is in fair form and has had 3-11 at track,the only trainer in that race with winners there,but its too small a number to draw any conclusions,would have to hurdle a lot better to figure

    1. Well done with those two. Did you have a nibble on the irish bonus one Gerry? 25s > 7s. Did it well. Always wish you’d had more on when they win like that!

  4. Josh,i had a look last night when it was 25 and didn’t have a penny on it nor at 7,was a masive gamble,hope you had a few on at the price,would have been gutted had i not had the others,but you can’t back them all,

    1. Ah that’s the attitude to have. Yep only threw 1/2 a TTP point which is only £5 at 25s, always wish you had more when they are smashed in and do that – but I try and stick to my plan and as I have said to others, plenty of time for me to double stakes in time etc. Candlish one a tad weak now, clearly picked the wrong handicap debutant to put up, we shall see!

  5. missed the 25’s on Andratx got 13.83 BSP , but got 15.0 on Anseanachai Cliste so excellent day whatever Spirit of Hale does, cheers Josh 55pts up since Cheltenham, all banks looking healthy and iv’e got £18 win £5-11 place going on Cant pay wont pay in thev 16-50

  6. Hi josh can u please remind me what the The #1 advised strategy is please 🙂

    well done on today’s big winner 😉

    1. Hi Dan,
      yep as explained in the welcome note here…

      http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Welcome-to-The-Racing-To-Profit-Members-Club.Main_.pdf

      Hope that makes sense, shout if not… that #1 strategy 12/75,+94.5 points in 2017 to date. around 1 bet per day and if you are going to follow any of the content on this page ‘systematically’, on everything we know to date, that is the best approach for me.

      From that foundation you can play around with other qualifiers anyway you please, and keep an eye on my ‘bet of the day’ test, which is going ok so far! (a minor blip today)
      Josh

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