Below are my video reviews of the Cheltenham Festival followed by some notes that I plan to refer back to before next year’s feast…
NOTES/LEARNING POINTS ETC
In ‘note form’ –
- When a big race ‘winning profile’ shortlist highlights 1-4 horses, never again leave a double figure priced one un-backed/tipped! (Flying Tiger,33s,shortlist of only 3 for Fred Winter. Backed/tipped the other two…urgh. Disgusting. I am just about over that now, nearly)
- Think about staking and use of EW bets, 1 point EW, or 1/2 EW, 1/2 win. This year I ‘tipped’ a decent number of placed horses that were backed win only. An increase in bank may need to be considered. In general I always want 1 point win on the bigger priced, confident, tips.
- Old Course – PACE- theory generally held up- in the bigger fields in general it paid to be on a horse more patiently ridden as they tend to go too fast in general and as they hurtle down the hill before swinging in for home, those near the front doing too much and having nothing left for the climb. Nothing is ever set in stone with pace though. And vice versa on the New Course, often payed to be ridden more handily.
- Class Class Class: Do allow some time for race analysis outside of the stats shortlists, with a specific focus on the top of the handicap and/or those horses with proven G1+2 winning form that could just outclass rivals. (Arctic Fire, top 2 in the weights 1-2 this year)
- The ‘Small field, deep ground novice’ profile… an eye on the handicappers that had been running in small field Graded novice races, and running ok, often in deep ground. Always bear in mind that they may improve massively now back in a handicap (could have been intentional) and in any case may now bounce off better ground and appreciate a race run at a proper gallop. These types could be well ahead of their mark. (Road To Respect- back to back wins for Gigginstown in that race- noted) In the case of Supasundae – he had decent Festival form to his name, with a cracking run in the Supreme which had worked out very well.
- Festival form often came to the fore again and again. Note those that had run OK here, pref the year before, mark those types up.
- Cross reference ‘winning profile’ shortlists with micro systems qualifiers more closely and take note of any that qualify on multiple angles (Un Temps Pour Tout)
- The Preview Circuit- take note of Jamie Codd’s thoughts (top judge/knows his onions) And at the Liverpool preview, take note of Andy Holding and his ‘on the clock’ performers- highlighted a couple of decent non handicap winners, inc Champion Hurdle winner who he was very keen on.
That will be all for this review post. I will come back and have a flick through next year!