Well I hope Samingarry doesn’t become a cliff horse but do add him to your trackers.. he is 5/6,5p in handicap chases C3 <10k as we know, but he is better than that I think. Anyway, a bit of money came and as they circled it was clear the jock wanted a flyer/easy lead. He started slow and played catch up for a while, eventually getting up alongside Saint Are whose cruising speed is probably faster than many a C3 chaser. Anyway, I will not give up on him yet. He may take to blinkers better NTO, he won on second start in a visor from memory. I think he could bolt up if able to lead/not be surrounded by horses- he seemed to despise that in this headgear. Maybe he has just regressed. Time will tell.
The winner…well having stewed on it I can see why some would have had a go, and assumed he may stay 3m. There is the odd non-handicap run over 2m4f where he stayed on well, at tracks with stiff finished etc. Don’t forget he was a G2 novice winner also, so some class there. You had to both ignore the 3 Ps and the stamina niggle- I couldn’t, in the context of him being 6/1. And he only just got up, more so as the leader’s legs turned to jelly. Unlike some winners where I wonder why I wasn’t on, I can live with that one. But, always something to learn. He was unexposed in handicaps, and over that trip over fences, and it was one of his easier assignments of recent months. Good record fresh also. Coleman booked. Easy after the race, eh?! And, there was nothing in that race that jumped out as having an outstanding chance, an open race. One of those. Moving on..
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TIPS
none.
MICRO ANGLES/SYSTEMS
Harry Fry Mares (10/1<)
3.10 Hunt – Desert Queen
Trainer Jockey Combo – Live Test
4.30 Sedge – Bell Weir (#10) (any odds)
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio- Live test
1.30 Hunt – Pearlita
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Keep an eye on…
Nothing on recent ‘hot form’ indicators that I want to get involved in although I have had a small dabble on the Jonjo horse Nick highlights below- and there seems to be some money around- Jonjo can clearly train them to win maiden/novice hurdles if he so wants, and I can see the appeal. If not today given the form of that Hereford race he is one to keep track of for handicaps. I suppose if they think he has potential to be better than a handicapper they may have him tuned up today. Good spot.
My own big price glory rests on the shoulder’s of Kim Bailey’s Braw Angus in the 1.30 Hunt – he is a TTP pick due to the trainer’s record here in handicap hurdles, but on closer inspection his handicap hurdle debut record is fascinating…it looks like it may be an angle he now increasingly takes advantage of. In the last year he is 6/23,9p with such types, and at Huntingdon he is 1/3,2p with such runners. The market can guide- his handicap hurdlers going off 22/1+ are 1/122,13p and I would like to see some support. I think his price will either shorten considerably,and he will go close. Or it won’t move/drift, and he won’t run much of a race. He steps up in trip which I like to see, as that is a possible reason for improvement – as is the fact he may not be fully tuned up and fitter than he has ever been. They may of course all be chasing the fav but you should never be scared of one horse.
GL with any bets.
The Venetia Video has been posted, now for Alan King..
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19 Responses
Ok so I may have positively gone mad but on a poor day’s racing I have a couple which look over priced to me and I think warrant a small e/w bet. Firstly Cona River in the 16:20 at Huntingdon. Form of his last race is working out well. The winner has won two more and is the Neptune favourite, the 2nd ran well in a class 2, the 3rd won a class 4, the 4th was runner up in a class 4 handicap and winner has won again since and the 7th has also won. He drops down in class here. Jonjo is is arguably in his best form all season and is actually 4/13, 4p in non-handicap hurdles at the track in the past 2 years. They may just be getting him handicapped here but at 25/1 I had to have a shot. Its interesting that the Nicholls horse which finished behind him is only 9/2 in the race following this one. The second pick in the 16:55 also come from a hot race and is never a 100/1 shot. Militarian was 4th in a pretty hot race at Warwick. The winner won easily in a grade 2, the 2nd went close in a listed race and 5th, 7th and 14th have also won since and a large proportion of the field have placed (those that have run since are 4/28, 13p including 1/5, 4p in class 5s). The trainer had his first winner in 13 months in the past week. He has 2 places from 4 hurdle starts here. He may end up being poor but I think his chance is better than 100/1.
That’s excellent analysis Nick and I’m sure everyone will hope it pays off – deserves too. I had a look at the opener at Huntingdon and with likely softer going than advertised and high winds I am drawn to Red Admirable, most experienced in the field, on a nice hurdles mark; yard is amongst the winners and won and run well on all Going up to heavy and also has form over further than this, had a small poke at 20/1. The other in the race I thought could outrun odds was Kim Baileys horse Braw Angus, yard in very good form, and could have untapped potential.
Yep great stuff Nick… I think you may have lost the plot for the second one of those haha- but that is mainly down to the three at the top of market/their profiles/their yards etc. I would be mildly surprised if one didn’t take it and you would think he may be one for handicaps, but egg at the ready. You had to have a go at that price I suppose, and he may place, and you never know!
I do like your Jonjo pick and have had a nibble. Plenty of positives as you point out – all about whether they have him tuned up and want him to take this race- you would think he has the ability to do so. And if that is the case it may indicate they think he is more than a handicapper in the making. Seems to be some money around so GL. Def one to track into handicaps if never sighted today.
Good spot with the Hereford form..what was you way in/approach with that?
That using HRB or Geegeez? I can see it on the 90 day tab, I never go that far back but maybe I should..and he is a long way down that list. Just interested, for my own purposes, how you homed in on him.. (as in how you found the hot race/what you look for) Not sure I would have found that at all.
Cheers
Josh
Josh, I use HRB for Hotform. There is a drop down facility where I enter A/W, Jumps and Flat separately which can be saved for speedy viewing. You can put in 30/60/90 days etc as you choose. Nick’s selections come up under Jumps non handicaps 90 days on my listing.
Cheers Richard, ah yes, just had a play with that, and with the non-handicap setting, min 5 runs, 90 days, it is right near the top in second! And with that I would like to think I would have had a look. I will combine that and geegeez and see how we get on. Now sure if playing on C5/6 AW is the way forward, so maybe I will focus on jumps and then move onto the turf over the summer.
Hi Josh
I use the HRB hot race form and add them to the list of races to follow normally for the horses next 2 races but sometimes 4. I don’t normally filter and will look at it at least every couple of days. This brings up a lot of entries to shift through on a daily basis but I think its been worth it.
Five non-runners in the 16:55. They’re all running scared….. (although I guess it could just be the weather)
Thx Nick
”Jonjo is is arguably in his best form all season and is actually 4/13, 4p in non-handicap hurdles at the track in the past 2 years”
That may be a pointer for one I’ve had my eye on for its first couple of runs in the following race – Walteroneeightone. Done nothing yet and reflected in odds, but a €50k purchase and a good looking pedigree suggests this will win races. Whether today is too early is another question. If it runs first 4 there surely won’t be 100-1 available again.
Interestingly Coleman is on yours in the first heat, but Fehily is on Walter. I can’t work out if there is any significance in that somewhere, welcome any views.
That race where Militarian came 4th was choc full of good types. Well spotted.
Rev FC Militarian/Walter for a bit of fun:-)
hi josh, i prefer the old racing post site, as one of my systems i use is up to 10 runners, how many running is clearer on old site, can i still access the old site do you know?
I rarely use it. Not sure how long they will keep old site up but at very bottom of page, bottom left, there is a link ‘return to Racing Post’ , think an Ian pointed that out a few times in the week.
Josh
Go to the home page on the new Beta site.
Then go right to the very bottom in the About Us section
Bottom of there you will see return to racing post . com
Click on that – takes you to the old version – if you have signed in to beta you will need to sign in again to old site.
Not sure how long it will be there, RP wont commit – hopefully the *** ******** wont take it down b4 Cheltenham – they are not that daft are they?
thanks Norman for yesterdays reply d/l snagit and it looks a useful bit of kit.
on a betting note iv’e probably joined in and lost the plot as well , in the 14.00 huntingdon i have had a nibble on Jodies Jem ew @220-1, not disgraced LTO in a G3 2 mile soft(kept going 7-10), has very similar conditions here, might have needed the run after a lay off and this looks easier.
i don’t know if anyone else uses sporting life website but the new look is not that great plenty of bugs hope they get them sorted quickly.
Just to save anyone the hassle of using up any more of their time on Huntingdon – it’s off.
Bookies were running scared there and used their influence to call it off lol
A great shame, given we had 20/1 x2 and a 100/1 winner between us. Next time!
Does anyone have any issues atm with RacingPost’s HorseTracker on their new beta site? Over the last last week any notes I’ve updated on my Horses I’m tracking haven’t saved, wasting hrs & hrs of my time.
Oh that doesn’t sound good. I don’t use it so can’t really comment- but I did read someone on twitter in relation to the same function on the Sporting Life website- and that users were emailed that such tracker horses etc will effectively be erased in a few weeks time, and start again!
I did not renew my RP sub but they are still sending me the old tracker horse daily even though I cannot access the notes.
I use gg.co.uk for my tracker, no issues with that.
Anyone know the max field size for the Eidar? Is to 18 or 20? (or more)