1.The Ratings Pointers
2.All Qualifiers against stats pack
3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)
4.Any general messages/updates etc
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1.The Ratings Pointers
HorseRaceBase
Top Rated
none.
Top 3
4.10 Lud- Stamp Your Feet 3rd / Im A Game Changer WON 9/2>4/1
3.15 Donc – Skip The Cuddles NR
3.45 Donc – Saint Are 2nd
Geegeez Speed
Top Rated
4.10 Lud – Im A Game Changer WON 9/2>4/1
Top 3
3.35 Lud – William Money WON 10/11>8/13
4.10 Lud- Stamp Your Feet 3rd / Ashoka 40/1 UP
2.All Qualifiers against stats pack
LUDLOW
3.35 – William Money (all hncps + hncp chase) 10/11 WON 8/13
4.10 –
Stamp Your Feet (all hncps + micros TJC/Class/Age) 14,30 13/2 3rd
I’m A Game Changer (hncp h) 14,30 9/2 WON > 4/1
Thunder Sheik (micro going IF HEAVY- unless a deluge,unlikely)
Ashoka (micro – runs this season) 40/1 UP
Le Brage (micro – runs this season) 20/1 UP
5.20 –
Monsieur Arkadin (all hncps) 10/1 NR
Gulshanigans (micro going IF HEAVY) H3, G1, for interest
DONCASTER
3.15 – Skipthecuddles (all hncps + hncp hurdles) 14 4/1 NR
3.45 – Saint Are (hncp chase) 14,30 5/2 2nd 7/2
4.55 – Balibour (NHF) 33/1 14,30 UP
3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)
3 ‘biggies’ today that to my eye look up against it- famous last words- not least because of the trainers’ record with such horses in these odds ranges..
Ashoka- well maybe you wouldn’t fall of your seat if he ran better in the sense that he is lightly raced and in 2015 showed some ability. He clearly has his problems and the cheekpieces return here. Skelton, like his old boss, gives his horses their ‘winter flu jab’ (am sure a more technical name) in early Jan I believe and there is usually then a dip/some inconsistency through to the end of the month/early Feb. It’s no shock that Nicholls is banging them in again in recent days. Maybe that is looking for excuses in terms of his two Ps. Of course there is always the chance they change tactics and try to make all- which some horses who have seemingly been out of form can respond well to. Anyway, the market does guide with the yard’s handicappers… 1/66,10p those in the 14/1-20/1 range, currently 0/40,6p those sent off 22/1+. One will win at some point no doubt, maybe this one.. seems unlikely. And there are plenty of in form, progressive types in here, two of them RP horses above. Surely he isn’t winning this? (unless his price collapses then I may sit up) I may not be able to resist a ‘just in case’ £2 at BFSP though. Weakness.
The same, price wise, can be said for Le Braye, who has shown little and makes handicap debut after a break. Jockey is 2/17,7p on the yard’s handicappers but he looks 3rd string based on that jockey booking. He does make handicap debut so we could see more but there is no distance move, or no headgear, and I would like to see him doing something different. Maybe he has had an op of sorts during his break. Again, he seems unfancied, and the market may well guide, as with those odds stats above.
Finally, Balibour- again I would like to see some market strength, not least as Lavelle is now 0/47,4p with her NHF runners sent off 22/1 or bigger. This one is 33s, 40s. If he comes into 20s or under I will have a go as this is only his 3rd start and he gets the first time tongue tie- so, doing something different. This looks a deep enough race though, some decent yards represented and a few horses in much better form. Maybe this one is for handicaps down the line and they are taking a slowly slowly approach.
That is it for the biggies. In truth there isn’t much point in me applying my brain to the ratings pointers horses as I won’t ever really out think those ratings!
The results below, so far, are suggesting that if you want a very narrow starting point, around 1 bet a day on average, the best profits to bets/ROI, it is looking like the ‘Ratings pointers, 10/1+’ angle is the way forward, and from that base you can then play around with any others you may fancy/other 10/1+ shots in section 2 you may wish to attack.
4.Any general messages/updates etc
RESULTS UPDATE:
ALL Qualifiers: CLICK HERE>>>
Ratings Pointers: CLICK HERE>>>
A slight moment of panic earlier as I thought Betfair/Timeform had put the historical results feature behind their exorbitant paywall. Thankfully you can still access BFSP info, all you need is a free Timeform account which is easy enough.
Anyway, the overall ‘foundation stats’ are looking solid. Even taking account of Tuesday’s 7.5 point loss or so, backing ‘everything’ is now around +80 points to BFSP (before commission) for 2017 to date. It is from that foundation that the Ratings Pointers/10/1+ approach are meant to build on, with any luck helping to boost profits one way or another. When those ‘backing everything’ stats start to have issues then I will lose sleep at night. Touch wood they have been ticking along fine since October. At End of Feb I will do a proper update on the Ratings Pointers and the +10/1 approach for the month and 2017 to date. You are free to interrogate as you see fit. But, nice that £2 on every qualifier at BFSP is around £150 in profit.
Ratings Pointers..
End of Jan they were +12.87 points for the month/2017.
So far in Feb, if my maths is correct, they are +36.73 points, before Tuesday’s are taken into account.
So, +49.6 points to BFSP,+39.72 for 2017 to date.
Solid. They appear to be working. That is just backing every ratings pointer horse once, regardless of what ratings/how many times. They just have to appear in the ratings pointers section once.
10/1 +
Remember, these are those horse that were generally available at 10/1+ in the morning across highstreet bookies (the price I put next to the horse at some point in the morning generally) and/or are sent off at 11.00 or bigger on BFSP. Results recorded to BFSP.
At end of Jan they were: 16/116, +158 points.
Feb hasn’t been so good. 3/76 in the month I think (exc Tuesday’s), around -39 points.
So, for 2017, 19/192 = +119.40 points to BFSP (inc commission)
(Vieux Lion Rouge missed out by 0.2, BFSP 10.8, maybe I will look at those in the 10.5-11.00 region!)
As always, thoughts/questions etc are welcome.
Ratings Pointers… 10/1+
Ratings Pointers horses that were 10/1+ (approach as above) now 8/54, +61.9 points 7/46, +61 BFSP for the year.
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9 Responses
Hi Josh
Following comments on RUK on Saturday re positive stats for Alan Kings with headgear, I have set something up in HRB with H-Runs (Headgear) set to exactly 0, but I appear to be getting qualifiers with no headgear (Canford Chimes today in 4:55 Doncaster). Any thoughts as to why or could this be a glitch in HRB, as obviously can’t trust the stats or qualifiers.
Chris R.
Hi Chris, yep I was going to look at Alan K and headgear today actually, and prob record a short video as haven’t done one in a while, also dipping into Venetia and Treadwell…
Have you actually selected that the horse is wearing headgear today? 2nd big box down in V4, currently 1st row as I look, may well be second, need to ‘add’ headgear, and tick which headgear…
or you could indeed do a ‘breakdown’ by headgear to see which one is best.
Sorry if that is insulting your intelligence! I will have a look myself a bit later.
Josh
Doh, not insulting at all Josh as still finding my way with HRB and was pretty certain it would be something simple/ stupid I was doing. I just wasn’t seeing the option. I was also trying to find the option for type as they suggested blinkers. Thanks for putting me straight.
Chris R
There are 6 ‘over the shoulder’ videos of me using HRB for various things, from the vault, here… for interest…
http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/08/23/horse-race-base-some-over-the-shoulder-videos/
Plenty to get stuck into in HRB, often many of the boxes in the system building function blur into one!
Hi Josh
Thinking about Trainer/Jockey Combos,how about looking into the top 15 flat jockeys and the top 15 NH jockeys when they are not riding for their retained trainer,one that springs to mind
Tom Scudamore/Michael Scudamore noticed of the years some decent priced HC Chase winners
Twiston Davies sons riding for their father is there a pattern.
After the Dream Team success over the past three months this must be a way forward,afraid i am not computer lit so must rely on you to investigate!!!
Once again thank you for all your hard work.
Hi Colin,
Yep plenty there to get stuck into- I have my own test team of TJC on the free posts and that is ticking along ok.
I do plan on diving into the flat at some point – I have the stats pack to do first/work out an approach, + summer jumps etc. For now, Cheltenham is rather all encompassing.
But for sure, there will be a team of sorts to track on the flat I suspect. But, such research is near the bottom of any list at the moment.
Josh
Ref Balibour
I take a slightly different perspective on odds contraction or increase than you do, Josh. Mainly based on experience. Although I recognise you may be approaching this on the Lavelle record with 22+.
A recent illustration..I was on a couple of Dundalk Bushrangers last week or two where got on at anywhere from 80 upwards and watched them halve or more in ten mins before the race. Only to run like 3 legged donkeys sideways (although they will win -or at least place at something big – at some point!)
Of course it feels great when you’re on at something big and the evidence is suggesting someone else can see something that you saw up front (eg they look well in paddock, there might be a whisper etc etc)
But the reality is I’ve seen plenty of contractions over the years which don’t come off, far outweighing those that have gone on to run well (and of course I’m only talking about the big odds runners at least 40 or 50 upwards BF).
In fact there’s some circumstancial evidence (only a small sample and not enough for any real conclusions, and again this is just from being on those winners when they went in ie I had a vested interest in watching the odds movements) that a runner that sits fairly stable anywhere from 34 to 65 can often run well (though of course you need to have had a reason why it might in the first place ie any of the pointers, been out of form and might make a return, just taken time to get ready/find a level, sire influence might give improvement, trainer methods, ran OK in a fast/good class race but was ultimately well beaten for a reason etc etc etc)
So to Balibour in particular. I’d debate whether an upwards odds movement should necessarily rule it out. The stats are against it yes, but what is more against it is of course the opposition you already noted. I note one of those is now out, so there are 6-8 others – 3 previous winners, 4 that could be anything, and that Pitman runner that’s run some great races on high grade courses.
On the plus side – good form from Lavelle bumper runners in other recent races, same jockey on that was on a 20-1 bumper winner last year (4th start!), the yard give it a good mention in stable tour which suggests they’ve been disappointed so far and reaching for the t now to see if it works (or maybe they already know it does!). Oh and the sire has a couple of other decent performers.
And I think I remember Nick Mordin a few years back rating a Lavelle bumper winner as one of the best he ever saw. Can’t remember the name.
Plus it may well be the presence of the other good runners that are placing Balibour into the current 33 region
I looked at this last night and initial instinct was not today. Got at least 6 to beat and 2 or 3 are big worries. It’s not hard to see any of them winning, and potentially going on to be good class.
That said, never forget anything can happen in a bumper. I’d say if it holds somewhere between 30 and 60 on Betfair and is fairly stable then it’ll definitely be worth a few quid win and place. Heading up towards 100+ obviously won’t be good news.
Talked myself into it :-). Now I hope it doesn’t contract, and equally doesn’t go out too far!
Good stuff Steve… yep that view solely based on trainer record in X price range, but a biggie will go in one day/closer and I suppose if it is going to happen it will be at a track where they do well/target with NHF runners- and Lavelle has been selective here, but very effective to date. I don’t like being too dismissive of the ‘biggies’ as I know I will make a right balls up one day and give the impression I have put myself off a 50/1+ winner! And I probably wont dodge enough losers in that range to make up for it. If in doubt I usually throw something at them, with a tendency for a bit more if in ratings pointers, or if not a massive neg, like a trainer odds record, but all such records there to be broken. And as you say it’snot as if all her bumper winners are smashed in under 10/1 fancies, a few nice priced ones go in. Hmmm.
a little more to tip the balance further…..
I found a FB post after Balibour’s first run at Chepstow….”moved beautifully and I think the ground found it out”
RP says ground was good for that meeting…but we all know that official description is not always accurate (I checked the writeups as they often mention true ground state in the first race summary but nothing in it). I think Lavelle was insinuating it was softer there than it appeared….and the subsequent race at Exeter definitely was. If the horse had trouble going in slightly soft at Chepstow it sure as h would have done on a 2m+ trip round Exeter.
So we have 2 reasons for the beatings, we have the tongue tie to help overcome that, better ground, a flatter, easier trip, and a few other bits and pieces.
If only there weren’t a handful of other potential good ones!
33-1 EW is looking like a worthwhile bet though (it’s moved to 28 on a couple)