If you missed today’s giveaway from Matt B over at Geegeez (where were you 🙂 ) you can grab this HERE>>>
This is the trainer/jockey combo report that a few of you geegeez list subscribers were raving about a few weeks back, and that by all accounts has been rather profitable to follow. (your words, not mine) So, do make sure you grab your copy HERE>>>
3.45 Donc –
Samingarry – 1 point win – 14/1, 12/1 (general) 16/1 (Lad)* UP 8/1
*hmmm. well a slight feeling of disappointment that he was slow away when it was clear the jockey wanted to make all- he spent a few fences getting him up with the pace and that will have taken something out of him. Only in the sense that I would have liked to have seen him travel on the front with no horses surrounding him. It may well be that he would have been on and off the bridle in any case.
I can’t say I would have ever backed the winner at a single figure price because of the stamina niggle- 0/10,0p beyond 2m4f previous to this- having said that, he was yet to win a handicap and a line can clearly be put through his last 3 runs. Something must have been up. He hadn’t had many goes at this trip over fences, it was possibly the easiest race he had lined up in and many others in here had questions to answer also. There seemed to be a bit of money for him but I was mildly surprised how he stayed on through the line. One of those. Hopefully Samingarry may pop up on his next couple of starts, making all. Clearly a bit of a bugger.
This one looks worth chancing to my eye at this price. He may well be tailed off, he may have issues, but there is something there. The first positive is the form of the yard. They have been in the doldrums for an age – I suspect a virus or something- certainly they had a poor 2016 from memory, but whatever it was, they are flying now… 3/13,7p in the last 14 days. Hopefully that rubs of on this one. Poor yard form/issues could have been a reason for his no show LTO, or he may have ‘bounced’ to an extent.
The first time blinkers also caught my eye, for one who does like to race prominently usually. It is my hope that they rev him up in a controlled way and that he may try and make all here, or certainly be up there. That is what they should do anyway! I would like to see some money for him, not many of the yards chasers over 12/1 run that well so fingers crossed he is backed as if better is expected.
All conditions look fine and before his enforced absence of over 500+ days, he had some decent enough form in the book, certainly good enough to mix it with these. He handicap mark is fine, he likes decent ground, he stays well enough, and has a good record under this jockey (2/5 in handicap chases)- of interest also that he is back on for the first time this season.
There was just enough there to take a stab at this price for me. Given his break he is arguably relatively young/lightly raced over fences compared to some of these, and that can count for plenty in these veteran’s chases.
I wasn’t keen to back anything else at the prices really. Saint Are is a worthy fav but they will have left something to work on for the National, and he is another year older than when winning this last year- and that race hasn’t worked out well, 1/42 from those to have run since.
Seventh Sky would have a chance at his best/repeat of that Bangor run, but he has some questions to answer now/well being etc, and is 6/1, not 14s. He may go close but 6s didn’t feel overly generous to me. The yard are going well again and he will give it a good go. Ericht and Killala Quay have stamina to prove and until they do that, I won’t touch them. This race wont be run at a slow pace I don’t think, and they will need to stay. Again in that context I don’t like their price. Likewise Astracad has a stamina question. I am not jumping up and down to back Court By Surprise at single figure odds either really, he hasn’t won a handicap chase since he was 9, 0/10,2p since then. Blue Cascade has some questions now after that last run also, and there is a class niggle and whether he would be up to beating some of these.
So, it feels an open race and one where I wanted a price. I can see Hawke’s charge out-running these odds if the headgear works. He was worth a punt at a double figure price for sure.
He is one for the ‘tracker’… in C3 handicap chases, worth <10k to winner, he is 5/6,5p… so if he they ever drop him in class take note also. Provided the horse hasn’t gone at the game, and the fact they’ve persevered suggests not, then I would be confident they will get another win or two from him, given his profile.
That will be all for tipping.
Nothing from the usual rosta that I can see, those days are rare…
Bonus.. a few days back I looked at NHF trainers who do well on Heavy. Mr Meade has one on Wed to keep an eye on..
5.10 Punch – Cask Mate
Colin’s Venetia/Treadwell angle is ticking along with another winner today… yes Coleman rode it, 8/1, but only because Treadwell was injured before, when his mount may well have gone on to make it 2/2. Such angles are about who is ‘booked’ rather than who is riding, if that makes sense! Well, imo anyway.
I have looked at that angle before and as I think about it I am not sure why it didn’t come up when I looked at my TJC test portfolio. I will add that to the list to look at, as I will Alan King and first time headgear, esp chasers. Keep reminding me until you see such notes!
That will be all for today.