TTP Jumps Notes: 21/02/17 (complete)

all qualifiers + ratings pointers + notes

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

5.20 Taunt – If The Cap Fits

Top 3

2.50 Taunt – Lakeshore Drive

3.30 Weth- Lightening Rod 

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

3.30 Weth – Lightening Rod

Top 3

2.20 Taunt – Oscar Jane

2.50 Taunt – Lakeshore Drive (odd one,only 2 horses with ratings in geegeez)

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

TAUNTON

2.20 –

Oscar Jane (all hncps + micro class) 14,30 7/1

Gold Bonne Raine (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 13/2

2.50 –

Lakeshore Drive (all hncps + micro class) 14,30 9/2

Drive On Locky (all hncps + micro class) 11/1

Tactical Manoevre (hncp hurdle) 16/1

Definite Ridge (hncp hurdle) 12/1

Anythingmayhappen (micro TJC) 28/1

4.20 –

Mr Kit Cat (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 11/1

Whipcord (all hncps) 22/1

5.20 – If The Cap Fits 15/8

 

WETHERBY

3.30 –

Lightening Rod (all hncps) 14 11/4

Plaisir D’Amoir (micro going IF HEAVY)(not heavy,may still bolt up of course,won’t officially count)

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers in 10/1+ range)

A handful of big priced horses as I write, especially in the 2.50… (there is a chance one/both of those in the 2.20 hit the magic 11.00+ range on Betfair,for such backers,one being a ratings pointer horse anyway)

I will start with Tactical Manoeuvre- a line of blue on oddschecker this morning which could be a red herring, we shall see. But the market can always be worth a watch with this yard- I have taken a price, as there is a chance it crashes in. If it doesn’t, and drifts, he probably won’t run a race anyway. There is no science to such price judgements really, we shall see. Anyway this one is lightly raced, only his second handicap hurdle, and if he bolted up and I were the trainer, asked to explain the improvement but the stewards I would say something like ‘it has taken a while for us to work the horse out at home but he is slowly starting to understand his job. His last jockey heard a noise during the race so we applied a tongue tie and he has also appreciated the better ground, and drop back in trip’  I wouldn’t be shocked if he won, or tailed in last, given his profile and those changes from last run. Soft may indeed be fine, but at least it is something different.

Jockey bookings suggest LakeshoreDrive is the main chance for connections- that owner has three runners across the first three races- maybe they don’t go racing much but at are Taunton today and have asked the trainer to ready their charges! I am sure they will be hoping for one winner.

Drive On Locky looks interesting enough. The ground may have been the excuse the last day,or race came too soon just 10 days later. He has won after breaks of 60+ days before, and while recent form for this trainer suggests further is ideal (as it does for Lakeshore in truth) he is a strong traveller and has won over shorter in Ireland for previous connections. The cheekpieces return also. Trainer/jockey are 1/10,2p in handicaps.

Anythingmayhappen – could be well named here. He makes handicap hurdle debut which could mean all previous form is irrelevant if he was being taught how to race/settle/become a race horse etc- he may well not have been fully wound up for those races and his prices suggest as much. So, we could see more today. The trainer does well with handicap debutants.. 4/18,7p in the last 2 years. Solid. Now the market may well guide- you like to see some money with  such types and Scott is 0/57,3p with his handicap hurdlers sent off 22/1+ ISP. But, anything may happen!

Definite Ridge has some questions and the market may well guide. He returns here after 185+ days, the trainer is only 3/70,8p in the last 2 years with horses that have had 60+ days off. This ones form is over further as well although having been chasing, this is only his second handicap hurdle. And having just said those fitness stats, with handicap hurdlers returning 121-365 days she is 3/16,4p in total- so maybe fitness isn’t a reason to be put off. A lot of those 2 year stats may well be non-handicappers, coming for a day out at the races 🙂 The yard is 0/11,0p in the last 14 days but when horses are a price I don’t like using trainer form as the sole reason to ignore one,as they will bounce back at some point. There is also a headgear change again. This is the jockeys first ride for the yard I think. He probably looks the weakest out of those in this, but you never know. Dunn is 3/96,11p with her handicap hurdlers sent off 14/1+ ISP, so the market can be useful.

So really, in the 2.50, if any of them went close you wouldn’t fall out of your armchair in shock really. It may be a painful race to watch if none of them go close! It looks a weak handicap hurdle, there for the taking.

Mr Kit Cat is unexposed and has an interesting profile. Conditions look fine. Just a fitness question then. The market can guide on that score, or it may not. The yard has winners at a price and after a break. So, maybe one not to overthink if you play the 11.00+ shots.

Whipcord makes handicap debut, the trainer 0/14,3p with such types in the last 2 years. His profile is interesting- I can’t but help look at the trainers who have runners in this – Tizzard, Nicholls,Skelton,King, Williams. I can’t think there are many races where say 3/4 of those have runners and they don’t take the prize but we shall see. Farelly is 0/37,4p with handicap hurdlers going off 22/1+ ISP- so market may well guide.

I think that is it for the biggies. Good luck with however you play them, as always.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS: I owe you a results update which I will get to you asap, by close of play Tuesday at the latest. At least they will now make for better reading than they had been since the end of Jan.

 

KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicates a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’ in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier- they are 3/4 so far…)

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

  1. Hi Josh
    Agree with your view about Plaisir D Amour ,
    however you cannot try to read Venitas plans looking for negatives for she will always surprise you.
    I am looking forward to seeing what Liam Tredwell will ride in the National,another 100/1 live the dream!!!
    A few years ago had a visit to her yard and she was so cagey she gave nothing away.

    1. Yep i haven’t looked at him in truth. Just for that particular micro angle he doesn’t qualify so won’t count if he does indeed win. Yep we seem to have a couple of decent systematic ways in between us at least. She is very shrewd indeed.

    1. Ha, yep that’s how it goes with that particular going micro, many more losers that haven’t qualified though when going hasn’t been ‘correct’ and just backing them-ignoring the going/angle, I am confident you would be down- that is only winner I can remember I think, hasn’t been many anyway. I left the race sadly!

  2. Since 1st November there has been
    36 bets 7 winners
    £10 Win + £280 at Bookmakers SP
    For myself over the years i have looked for negatives at my cost,and Venita will always beat me so i back every one,who would have backed Mon Mone in the National at 100/1

    1. Yep, I have looked at that TJC before and I should really dive in again- they should probably be included in one of my portfolios somewhere! As they have never failed for some time now. If that is 280 to SP, i suspect much higher to BFSP, well, higher, and certainly higher to early odds, esp for 12/1<, as many of theirs can be backed. Well done.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.