TTP Jumps Notes: 20/02/17 (complete)

all qualifiers + ratings pointers + notes..

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

1.50 Ling – Coyoacan UP

2.30 Carl- Straight of Magellan UP

4.10 Carl- Carrigdhoun WON 12/1, 15.9 BFSP

5.15 Carl – Fin And Game UP

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

3.00 Carl- Kapp Jazz WON 9/2>9/4 > 3.73 BFSP

Top 3

4.10 Carl- Cultram Abbey – Fell

4.10 Carl- Carrigdhoun  WON 12/1, 15.9 BFSP

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

CARLISLE

2.30

Straight of Magellan (all hncps + hncp hurdle+ micro class) 14,30 5/2 UP

Oishin (all hncps) 28/1 UP (4th,never nearer)

3.00 – Kapp Jazz (hncp chase) 14 9/2 WON 9/4

4.10 –

Cultram Abbey (all hncps) 8/1 Fell

Carrigdhoun (all hncps) 11/1 WON 12/1, 15.9 BFSP

Sun Cloud (all hncps) 16/1 UP (closing 3rd,better from him,coming back to form maybe)

5.15 – Fin and Game (NHF)

 

LINGFIELD

1.50 – Coyoacan (NHF) 14 15/8 UP

2.50 – Bahumbug (all hncps + hncp chase) 25/1 UP

4.00 – Cool King (hncp chase) WON 7/1 > 8/1, 11.9 BFSP

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views,mainly on qualifiers in the 10/1+ range)

A handful of possible 10/1+ shots to look at today…

Bahumbug – he looks up against it- well he is in poor form and has never done much as yet. 0/10,1p in career, now 0/3,0p chasing – however, given he has only had 3 goes, it isn’t impossible he shows more at some point. I am looking for reasons why he may improve, esp on that last run which was poor- maybe there is a small chance he reacts better to the visor 2nd time now that he may be used to it. The yard is a bit cold also at the moment, 0/22,4p last 30 days, 0/9,1p last 14. The trainer in terms of odds in handicap chases… 7/173,37p 14/1-20/1, 3/92,3p, 22/1-40/1. You would have to say he looks likely to struggle here but it is a shocker of a race, really very poor, and they all have some sort of question. If the fav handles the drop back in trip he probably is the one to beat. This one does have low miles though, and you never know at this level, in heavy ground. It is his 4th run after a lengthy break also. I don’t think I am comfortable having nothing on him personally, just the kind of horse that every now and then, may just pop up. It is more likely he tails off of course, hence his price I suppose.

Oishin- well he won two starts ago at a big price (so in that sense market isn’t helpful) in what may have been a poor race. He qualified here the last day and was never really going to my eye, jumping a bit poor also. That may just be because he isn’t very good but there are two angles of interest… well his last run here was after 53 days off, which may suggest there was a problem/hold up at home with him. Given he had just won you would have thought he’d have been out quicker. So, maybe he may come on for that a tad, returning just 12 days later here. He also gets a first time tongue tie, so doing something different. You can always forgive a horse one bad run. Maybe he isn’t very good either but his price looks on the big side to me- I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran a better race.

Carrigdhoun – well this old boy owes nothing for the stats having won twice in the 10/1+ range in October. He is 3/6,5p here over fences and while his last two runs are a bit moderate he is best here I think. This looks an interesting little race that may well be between the top two in the market, but if he runs up to his best he may give them something to think about.

Sun Cloud- well he has the ability to win this and he is now well handicapped- but that’s because he has been in poor form for a while. I am struggling to see any reason, from what we can see without being connections, for why he may improve on recent runs. The market may guide. Conditions look fine I think although he has always stuck me as just a slow boat and a few in here are in better form.

Good luck with whatever you go with.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

nothing today.

 

5. Hunter Chase – Live Test 

Trainers (16/1<)

5.05 Ling – Big Fella Thanks

**

I think that will be it for today, unless I have missed any, which fingers crossed i haven’t

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

6 Responses

  1. Sorry for late notice, but long distance travelling qualifier today (albeit very short). Yesterday’s was a NR.

    Carl. 2:00 – Catamaran De Seuil 8/15

    LSP -3.56pts

    Chris R.

    1. Cheers Tony, that horse is such a warrior, and his relentless galloping and superb jumping at his fav course always keeps him in with a chance when fit, and at the right level. Sad race as looked like Beg To Differ seriously broke down.
      Coolking was a pleasant post race surprise, set the 11.00 min in BFSP, assumed may not have hit it when he won, but it did. Made up for seeing my ‘tip’ plod home, he may well still be running.

    1. Well, that’s a rather nice return! Well done. That’s how it goes in the ‘no odds caps trainer stats’ game, mainly a lot of downs, with a few clumps/spikes every now and then that with any luck grows the profits over time. The last 3 days are one of those spikes, overdue in truth and a few more needed in the 11.00+ range to get back those losses from end Jan, but pleased to see ratings pointers bounce back. Glad you have found an approach that is working for you.

      1. yes Josh i think i have found a staking plan that suits me, even a double top rated is only 2.5% of starting bank and haven’t increased stakes yet so the bank is well protected but i will reconsider raising stakes when bank trebles.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.