Ah well Saturday was one of those great profit making days, the kind of day you get when you aim your punting guns at angles with no odds caps and horses in the 6/1+ range… around +30 points across the blog, including a winning tip (yep, I can’t believe it either, I have watched the race again, and it appears I did indeed find a winner. Armageddon must be near 🙂 ) The ratings pointers had a cracker with 3/4 i think, winners at 8/1, 7/1, 8/1. That will do. After a brilliant start to the year the wheels somewhat came off that approach in recent weeks, but I think this week has got back any losses and gone back into profit I think, certainly to BFSP, although I need to update results.
The 10/1+ shots are on a bit of a poor run, but having looked back to October, such bets were +266 points to BFSP before Feb. It can get choppy when you are constantly backing 10s+ shots, but as Sat proved with the ratings pointers, you can wipe out any losses in quick time. Whenever that time comes.
The success of VLR at Haydock was another exciting indicator for my stats/trends/winning profile approach. That same approach will shortlist plenty of winners at the Spring Festivals I think- just a case of how many my own pins land on!
Anyway, that was yesterday, we move on.
Not much today. My head is slightly sore. There is a decent C3 handicap chase at Ffos Las.. 3.50- I will probably back Bob Ford, 5s is just about ok- only as he is a TTP ratings pointer horse, against both HRB and Geegeez Speed… also he hasn’t run in a C3 chase since his last win here in Dec 15, having been highly tried over fences since then. This is much easier, he is below his last winning mark,and how young mr Moore can still claim is beyond me (ok I know why he can technically!). Many a fully fledged pro would like to be blessed with his ability. I suspect they may try and be forceful with him as he does like his own way up front. Bowen’s may be up there. I think Bob Ford looks a stronger stayer than Pearl Swan and Little Jon, and if this is a soft ground slog he will keep going – if he hasn’t been pulled up come the business end! My gut says given his Ps that 5s may be too short, but Curtis is in good form and the horse likes it here.
Jumps Angles
Harry Fry Mares (10/1<)
2.00 MR- Queen Odessa
11 Responses
Josh
Sunday 19th??
Mike
Ah yes. So it is! Cheers. Josh
Had a nice winner on Friday with a Phil Kirby horse (Improved) backed in from 20/1 to 10/1 and Sakhees City in 3.00 at MR has a similar profile, ran over longer trip last time, didn’t get home and back to optimum trip. On probably ceiling handicap mark and it confuses me a little as to why Adam Nichol (fine jockey) rides and not Thomas Dowson, who could claim 5lbs. This horse has previously been ridden by 5lb Claimer (Murtagh) IF TD was riding I’d be having a decent each way bet, as it is, I wonder if a run round and a midfield will bring the mark down and next time is the plot?. One to watch and just in case I will have a bit of shrapnel on it.
Good luck Ian… he does look like a cracking EW bet if we assume he didn’t stay the last day. I wouldn’t worry/consider handicap marks just yet given he hasn’t had many goes in handicaps and it is hard to know what his ceiling may be, if he is there yet. Yard is in cracking form and it could be seen as a positive that Nicol is on- this horse looks a tricky bugger I think, one that doesn’t like winning, hence why EW is prob best -it won’t hurt having a more experienced jockey on and if he can deliver him late/cajole him, you may have found a decent one there. You would think if he repeats any recent placed runs he should be out-running those odds and going close. GL.
Just the one for me. Asockastar rates as a really good bet today in the 16:50 at Ffos Llas. He ran a solid race in 2nd LTO on his seasonal re-appearance. Should come on for that and now drops down in class into a class 5. Jockey was 2nd on his only run in this class which was also his only run in a class 5. Jockey has been in fine form with 3 winners from his last 8 rides all for the trainer. Together they really seemed to have targeted these class 5 and have done a decent job sweeping them up (10/41, 17p this season and 4/10, 6p from their last 10). He is top rated on both GGG and HRB ratings. I do find jockey bookings an interesting factor to figure out (not sure if I ever will). Vaughan seems to try and get Dickie where he can but Johns has had much more of the rides with a better strike rate and has been much more profitable to follow (+55 SP if following him blind for Vaughan this season), so Johns looks to be getting the rides with the better chances. This is his only ride for the trainer today. The ground will be fine given he has won on soft before. Expect him to go close.
Hi Nick, a compeling write up for this horse. Sunday is my day off (if there is ever such a thing?) but i ahve had a few quid on.
You mentioned you were off the the WSOP this year. Where are you staying? That side of town, the Golden Gate etc? I was staying at The Bellagio last week. I forced my wife for a walk over the bridge to The Rio. I bought some WSOP memorabilia and had a look behind the scenes where the play is. They were having a mini prep run by coincidence. I did not stay that long as my wife got bored with the shops to look in and we made our way back to the strip. I only played at the Bellagio and the cash games were fairly weak.
Staying at the Cosmopolitan so fairly near to the Bellagio. They got 3 events planned the Colossus, The Millionaire Maker and the one one who’s names escapes me but is $2.6k buy-in and has 2 hour blinds like the ME and last for 5 days.
Ok so 30 minute walk to Rio. The shuttle will get you back to Ballys if you do not want to walk it. I may go for a week next year based on the schedule and fit a couple of lower level buy in events in? There is a £220 event at Stratford this coming Friday – Sunday if I can be bothered to battle with getting through the Blackwall Tunnel.
Good luck.
Given Aspers changed the goalposts so gave me £880 in vouchers instead of cash going to be there on saturday playing that.
Oh and given the 50 degree temperatures no chance I will be walking to the Rio. Taxis are pretty cheap anyway.
Venita Williams and Liam Tredwell
November 1 bet W9/1
December 14 bets W4/1 16/1
January 9 bets W6/1
February 9 bets W8/1 6/1
Total 33 bets
6 Winners
£10 Win bets +£220 at Bookmakers SP