FREE DAILY POST: 18/02/17 (complete)

TIP + Jumps angles

TIPS

3.15 Haydock

Vieux Lion Rouge – 1 point win – 7/1 (general)

Well I am going to trust my stats here as having looked at them in the Members post he ticks the ‘winning profile’ that I came up with, the only one to do so. He also ticks other positives of finishing Top 2 LTO and having a win in his last 4 starts. There is no perfect stats/trends match in this. He has run in the Grand National and I think such types are 0/55,10p since 1997- but that isn’t exactly one of those logical stats.

Given he ‘qualifies’ against my approach I would be a bit annoyed were he to win. On paper he has some of the best recent form to offer and is still unexposed enough. After breaks of 60+ days he is 4/7,6 places, so fresh seems to be the best time to catch him. Now the National weights are out you would like to think he will be ready here and may be put away after this for the big one. Conditions looks fine and he went well for a long way in the National last year and by all accounts is a stronger horse this year. (if my memory of trainer quotes post becher are correct). Pipe has been quiet but had a winner at Sandown yesterday and maybe like Jonjo he is just hard to predict these days!

All in all he looks the solid option here. He is Top rated on geegeez speed and top 3 HRB also, which is a positive. I was struggling to make an enthusiastic case for much else and will stick with him.

There wasn’t anything at a massive price that interested me really.

Good luck if/whatever you go with here.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Kerry Lee Chasers (12/1<)

3.55 Winc- Grey Gold (12/1<)

 

SAT Trainer/Jockey Combos (14/1<)

2.25 Ascot – Sausalito Sunrise

3.35 Ascot – Royal Regatta

 

Trainer/Jockey Combo– Live Test

3.00 Ascot – Prime Venture (#4) (12/1< guide)

3.15 Hayd- Wakanda (#2) (12/1<)

4.20 Hayd – Palm Grey (#2) (12/1< )

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– Live Test

3.00 Ascot – Connetable

 

**

That will be all for today. Good luck with any bets.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. Hi Josh,

    How do I contact you privately? Can’t see a contact us button and there’s an issue with my subscription

  2. Firstly apologies for not putting up Justification today from the Gary Moore stable. I was out all day and could not post. Secondly well done to Nick M for putting up Handsome Dude so well last night, forcing me to have a few quid on.

    Onto Saturday and early thoughts – At Haydock Park, Big River should have conditions to suit in the 2.40 ; Vicente should be able to go well in the 3.15 at a price. At Ascot, I have had De Dollar Man in m tracker for a while, 1.15, and I expect him to improve’

    Maybe more tomorrow?

    1. Took EW about DE Dollar Man Martin Cheers. Didn’t fancy Vincente…but got the winner from the members page and my own trend pattern.

  3. One that catches my eye today in one of the lesser races is Somerset Jem in the 4.30 at Wincanton. Won this race last year off a mark of 87, was hammered with a 16lbs rise for that but was competitive next time off a raised mark. Has struggled since but close reading indicates the horse can suffer from bronchial problems. Those can often be associated with seasonal variations (I remember Lavelle and others being decimated by spores from oil seed rape as an example). The 2 runs this season should ensure fit, and with odds to 4th place with last years romp in mind 8/1 might be each way value
    Good Luck to all with their selections today.

    1. great stuff again Ian, and well done with yesterday’s pair of winners. Punting/picking simply doesn’t get better than that, hope you enjoyed cheering them home! GL today.

  4. hi josh
    i tried to catch you out on a kerry lee chaser a bit back and failed as it was irish bred and did qualify, realised it when turned page over! trying again today! am i right this time when saying GREY GOLD has had 3 runs in last 90 days, which rules him out ? not irish bred this one, or is it other than what got printed off?

    1. Hi Malc, Grey Gold is Irish Bred according to HRB, that is why he qualifies, has the (IRE) after his name, as he does in Geegeez and RP. That is why he qualifies. Josh

  5. Vieux Lion Rouge looks the best trends option given that he is the only qualifier for me and 2 other sources put him up but with one or 2 other runners. It’s one of those horses that scares me, everyone tipping it and including it in trends that it’s sure to bomb out somehow. Probably travel sweetly then hit one 2 out and finish down the field.
    The eternal optimist.
    Plenty to like about him though with conditions and form, so surely he goes close today??

    I like Goodtoknow a little mainly because he’s done a going and distance win before with a little sweet spot for Miss Lee 😉 (saver in order). I wonder if Blacklion is able to do a Bristol De Mai here?

    Why am I questioning myself now I placed my bloody bet last night?

    1. Part of the joy of this game Chris is the constant questioning and self doubt! Isn’t it?! Where would we be without it. I had to stick to that trends/profile approach really, it has done ok this season on the shortlisting front again, in general. 7s, 15/2 seems fair although seems unsteady in the market. And I take your point about it all seeming too good really! Who knows what the Pipes are thinking but it is a nice pot to win and if fit enough he should be going close in these conditions. GL

      1. I couldn’t get away from the trends either as its picked every winner for years between 2 and 4 selections each year. This year just the one, so happy days but boy was I nervous watching that….more the stake than if he was going to get there! Good work with your tipping Josh, hopefully a nice confidence boost, still got it eh!

        1. Ha. Well there is still some ability here somewhere it seems! Just need some consistency, a couple of false dawns in recent weeks but I am a believer in that trends winning profile approach, over time. Nice for the pin to land on the right one. I was fairly confident for most of the final circuit!

  6. Dude did the job well yesterday. The 14:40 and 15:15 at Haydock both looked like cracking races but struggled to rule much out in either and kept going around in circles so whilst I will be an avid viewer got no opinion on either. (This is where it’s a plus to be following Dr Nick since it keeps me out of trouble)

    My only personal bets are Desert Sensation in the 16:10 and Doesyourdogbite in the 15:00 who both look to have solid e/w chances with sights lowered. Both Ascot.

  7. hi josh
    when looked @ GREY GOLD on racing post new site just said GB, used to say irish on old site, perhaps not saying irish on new site?

    1. Cheers Stewart, we won’t get ahead of ourselves! But hopefully it may be the start of a renaissance! Although thought that after morney wing last month! But that stats/profile approach does work for big races over time,which adds to the excitement for the spring festivals.

    1. Cheers Nick. Long overdue, one for the stats profile approach. Ratings Pointers had a cracker of a day also,over 22 points I think. Good day all round.

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