This is more of a monthly update for Jan and results to date.
Firstly, the spreadsheets for 2017 to date…
- All Qualifiers: CLICK HERE>>>
- Ratings Pointers: CLICK HERE>>>
Analysis
At the end of January, the profits for 2017 for
All-Qualifiers: (backing just once)
Early/BOG: +93.375
BFSP: +131
The Ratings Pointers (backing every qualifier just once)
Early/BOG: -9.5
BFSP: +12.87
Ratings Pointers
Top Rated Qualifiers (backing twice when double top rated)
9/40 = +0.75 (early/BOG)
Double Top Rated: 2/2 = +5.25 (backed once)
Double Qualifiers (so qual once against both HRB and Geegeez Speed)
3/20 = +0.25
10/1 + Qualifiers
My stats pack does not have any odds caps for any of the stats/micro angles and they have the habit of finding big priced winners, especially at BFSP. As you will see 2017 indications to date are that this approach could be the most profitable, but that losing runs can be rather painful, and more so if you start backing them just before a losing run. These figures are calculated to BFSP, and a horse qualifies if it was generally 10/1+ in the morning across highstreet bookies (at least 2) and/or it gets sent off at a BFSP of 11.00 or bigger. For those shorter priced selections that may drift you can set a minimum BFSP of 11.00, the bet only placing if sent off this price or bigger.
So, to BFSP…
January:
All -Qualifiers
16/116, 14% win SR = +166.73, +158.40 (after 5% commission), or £1584 to £10 bets, or +£792 to £5, or £316.80 to £2 bets
Ratings Pointers
5/31, 16% win SR = +51.15 BFSP, +48.9 (after commission)
February To Date (up to Sun 12th)
All Qualifiers
1/49, = -40 BFSP
Ratings Pointers
1/10 = -1 BFSP
(they are due a couple of nice priced winners now in Feb with any luck!)
Further thoughts…
With the 10/1+ approach… in January the longest losing run was 30. The longest losing run to date was from the last winner in Jan to the next in Feb,which was 43.
Given we are dealing with win % of between 10-15% such losing runs are to be expected.
The longest one you can expect with a 10% win SR can be 66 per 1000 bets, at 15% this can be 43 per 1000 bets. Of course, these can happen a few times within that period.
With the 10/1+ approach a starting bank of 200 points is probably now advisable. The only way to cope with such losing runs is to bet an amount that you are comfortable with and if that means starting with £2 bets then so be it. There is plenty of time to build up a bank moving forwards and if the wheels do come off (always possible with any approach) the damage will not be too severe.
It certainly looks like backing those in the 10/1+ range will be the most profitable approach and the biggest ROI, but time will tell, and some caution is advisable.
I think that should be the starting point. We can then use any subjective judgement and the ratings pointers to try and pick out some shorter priced winners.
As always the stats are there for you to use as you see fit. They have been profitable and do find winners. Hopefully this information allows you to plot a profitable path moving forwards. I am confident patience will be rewarded over time. The stats pack has produced profits since they were introduced in October and with any luck will continue to do so.
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Back at the end of Feb with another such round up.
If you’re not already a member, you can always take a 14-day Free Trial HERE>>>
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One Response
I wonder how much overall(since 2016) profit came from favs below 4/1. I used to prefer long shots but in February I realized how much money there is to be made on favorites if you only pick the right ones. The reason is simple – shorter losing runs means you can stake more, i.e. 3-5% of the bankroll instead of the usual 1 or 0.5%. So in effect a 20% ROI fav pick is more profitable than a 60% ROI long shot pick if you put 4 points on the former and 1 on the latter because it’s a 15/1 gamble. Plus you don’t have to endure soul crushing losing runs.