TIPS
none.
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio – Live Test
2.20 Ayr- Late Date
4.20 Ayr – Special Catch
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That may well be all on what is another quiet start to the week. I do need to crack on with my Cheltenham research also and I owe the Members a results update/analysis.
As an aside, one of you good readers, in the Christmas ‘racing books’ post recommended Braddock’s Complete Guide To Horse Race Selection and Betting- only 100 pages in but a very good read so far and plenty for me to ponder/apply in general and in 3m+ chases. A few things to tweak I think. A very good book, recommended for all levels I would say, on what I have read so far.
**
Nope, nothing else today.
My only bets today are on two TTP horses, 3.20 Ayr Another Mattie 9/2, and Blue Bullet 13/2 in the 4.30 Fontwell. Hopefully one of those can go in on what looks a mediocre days racing.
24 Responses
Re. Braddock’s book, there’s a few different versions available and his selection method changes slightly as the book is revised. I’ve been told the 2004 version is the one to go for if possible.
Oops hopefully the 1987 version is almost as good since the cheapest you can get the 2004 for on Amazon is £50!
Braddock’s guide was my first serious racing book but over the years you come to appreciate it’s deficiencies. Back when he released the first edition it WAS uncommon for horses to run well after a long layoff, now its almost irrelevant. He also gives the terrible recommendation to NEVER bet in handicaps, by the time the later editions came out and Handicaps accounted for more than 60% of racing he had to make some allowance for that but his approach is extremely naive (basically start with the top weighted horse and work your way down until you find a horse that is suited by the conditions) because he assumes that the OR is an accurate guide to the relative ability of all the runners.
For newbies following his advice will keep them out of trouble but following his selection criteria rigorously just puts you on odds on favourites in non handicaps most of the time.
Cheers Steve, yep I haven’t got to his exact criteria etc- in what I have read so far there are some interesting snippets and sometimes I need reminding of the basics – especially ‘form’ analysis which I have let go by the wayside a bit- and some of his views do make sense- being reminded in handicap chases say, that the pace often picks up over the final 2/3 fences and as such the emphasis is on accurate jumping, and hence those near the top of the handicap in a race are often the best jumpers- is simple, but a timely reminder.
I have always looked at ‘profile’ first really, suitability to conditions in 3m+ chases, but I need to stop doing that and use that information as context/in support..
A better approach may be to go with pace/front runners,then form analysis,weight (in context of jumping) before then looking at which horses are unexposed, and which are doing something different. And using ‘profile’ notes (suitability to conditions) to underpin all of that, and trainer stats/form/approach etc.
Such approach would have led to Perfect Candidate say, and Barton Gift, in recent days.
And, not to speak for our own Nick Mazur…but plenty of his recent success is in part down to form analysis I think- hopefully he may agree..well, in any case, looking at the races horses have run in and the subsequent form of those horses around them and what they have gone on to do. That needs to be much more prominent in my thinking, which may sound obvious, but has rarely been my starting point, or end point,and that clearly needs work and needs to be a bigger part of the puzzle for me. Linked to class as well. In essence from the first 140 pages or so, the factors I have put more emphasis on he seems to put last and use as contextual information, to help with other factors he considers more important.
He has also raised a few points that deserve some further research in my HRB account, esp success of LTO winners, the rest pattern (although take your point about training methods), the weight points etc. So a bit there to dove into and see what stacks up.
Josh
Yeah one thing I have cranked up in the past 2 months is I absolutely spam the Hot Race tool in HRB. That gives me an excellent idea of the form in the race, not just my selection but any other potential dangers. I suppose I probably should do the same for the cold races but I don’t think you can easily differentiate between the two so I guess you would need 2 HRB accounts. If you can colour code it can someone let me know how.
Hi Nick, re:Hot/Cold races, why not open 2 tabs??
But surely they would both bring up the same qualifiers or am I missing something.
One tab for hot, one for cold. Adjust the criteria to suit ( I always click ‘Yes’ for the ‘Today’ option) and look at the races you want. It can get a bit confusing if you have lots of tabs open though, so I’d say its best to take notes. Maybe Geegeez has a kind of cross examination function that makes it easier I don’t know if that’s what you’re after?
Hi Josh / All
No sire selections but there is no fewer than 16 returning course & tapeta winners at Newcastle tomorrow with 4 main selections that have won 2 or more races at the track / tapeta…….
2.40 Taopix 4.5 best odds 5 books – 3 wins at track / tapeta
Staking £20.22 – 2% of £1011.26
3.40 Barwah 6.0 best odds Bet365 / Betvic – 3 wins
4.10 Testa Rossa 15.0 best odds 9 books – 4 wins
5.10 Novabridge 15.0 best odds Bet365 / Betvic – 2 wins
Testa Rossa is the stand out at the odds, this is a very competitive class 2 with 4 other course winners in the field but the selection loves coming from the back on this straight track on Tapeta and should have a pace to run at in the last furlong which he didn’t have last time out.
In the 3.10 Natural Scenery 2.82 Betway /Boylesports looks the stand out bet on the card unbeaten on Tapeta over 1M 4F – 1M4 1/2F here and at Wolves and now stepped up to this 2M 1/2F trip, She is very lightly raced with just the 8 runs winning 3 with a stamina laden pedigree out of Dubawi (3,1,1 over C & D) and a Sadlers Wells Mare, Saeed Bin Suroor is 1,1,1 with Class 3, C & D winners and this just looks a stepping stone to better races ahead
Good Luck with any selections
Cheers
Steve
Luke Morris got the gap to late but Restive looks like it’s ready to go in.
A couple of small bets for me tomorrow. I’ve been impressed with the way Paige Fuller has been riding whilst winning on Three Ways and Catching Time over the past few days (beating my picks into 3rd both times) and you’d be hard pressed a more inform 7lb claimer with 4 wins and 6 places from her last 11 rides. She goes to Fontwell (16:30) for just the one ride on Blue Bullet for Jamie Snowden. Her last five rides for the trainer resulted in 2 wins and a 2nd (6/29, 10p overall). Trainer is 2/8, 4p in bumpers at the track in the past 2 years and his last 3 runners have resulted in 2 winners and a 3rd. With 13/2 and 8 runners we can just about go e/w so stable bang in form.
I am still dipping my toe as far as the Newcastle AW track is concerned but I think Suzi’s Connoisseur is worth a small bet in the 16:10. Beaten less than a length 5th LTO over course, class and distance in a race he might have won if not for a bit of interference. Races off the same mark today. Oisin Murphy gets the ride which I think is a plus given he has an excellent record for the trainer on the AW (8/26, 13p +18.25 since the start of 2015) and he rides the track well. (4/14, 7p) Statistically draw 1 has been the best place to be in this field size according to GGG (11/36, 18p +62.25 in fields of 12 to 15 runners). There is a slight concern about the lack of pace however there wasn’t a great deal LTO either.
Forgot to mention Blue Bullet is wearing a first time tongue tie which is another reason to expect an improvement.
On a day with little value Blue Bullet is my only bet,13/2 is fair enough to have a stab
Yep, one of only 2 TTP horses I am interested in today, agree 13/2 looked more than fair to my eye. Ticks plenty of boxes and given his stats here in NHF looks sure to run some kind of race. GL
As usual…field now reduced to 7 runners.
Another excellent winner there again Nick. Thank you very much for all of your efforts and thoughtful write ups. Much appreciated.
I see good chance for Un Noble 4:20 A ,Special Catch fav last race what he won was nothing special,won with 2/1 just by 1 lenght 5 horse race,two horses didnt finish race,price on exchange has to be over 10/1,Un Noble forecast is 12/1
Like i see stats that horse need two rides after break,third is his best,tomorrow is his third
Have a 1987 copy of Braddock’s if any body wants it
will post it free
graham-ashford@sky.com
Nick/All. I am also still getting use to the AW here. I think this is a very tricky race but at the prices Realize looks over priced. It’s his first time at Newcastle but a C&D Sire check says only one horse has run before and has won.
What I like is this:- Class to 2 Hcp’s on the Aw he is 4 Runs 3 Wins 4 Places. His last win was at Chelmsford a track that favour’s front/prominent runners yet he, a hold up/midfield type still won where as at Newcastle you are better off being the hold up/midfield type. Hence 15/2 seems worth chancing, with a good draw in 2.
I actually only thought this might happen after my write up so I cant claim to have spotted it when doing the write up but that’s a trainer plan worked out to perfection. Williams clearly wasn’t sure there would be enough pace so he made sure there was some.
Ah yes, well done, another nice winner there. Can’t say I have been plugged into the sand today and rather ignored your advice! Next time. You should clearly dip in more often.
Well in fairness I wasn’t overly bullish. Plus I guess it could have easily worked out the other way although seemed less likely given the jockey bookings. Yeah hopefully will come along. Newcastle seems the opposite of Chelmsford in many ways. That stall 1 must be a decent angle in given the stats. Was quite surprised about that when I saw it last night.
Yep just had a look after you mentioned it and does stand out somewhat. May be a good little micro/way in. Yep hard to ever be bullish in races like that really but he was a decent enough price, and that run LTO was eye catching having just watched it, given trouble etc. Back that up with a well handicapped horse + your stats and there you go, job done.
I have studied Newcastle Tapeta closely since inception and it is well worth getting to know. A word of caution re stall 1, there was a period around 4/6 weeks ago where nothing could quicken at all on the far side but they were doing so up the stand side.