FREE DAILY POST: 10/02/17 (complete)

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TIPS

3.20 Bangor

Lord Heathfield- 1 point win – 11/1 (general) 2nd, 10/1 (5l)

Wellforth – 1/2 point EW– 40/1 (general) UP

Ah. Never quite getting there although I lived in hope in the final couple of furlongs that the leader may have done too much at some point and his legs would go to jelly. They didn’t. I won’t complain when they give me a run for my money like that. He clearly stays this distance and was doing his best work late, and may pick up a minor event over that distance at some point. But, he is just one paced. And I was right to take on those near the top, a small consolation. Barton Gift had the signs- namely the headgear change again- and he was 2/2 here over fences, and a proven stamina. A bit put off by fact he would need a career best, in the OR anyway, and I wasn’t certain he would get a comfortable lead- for the most part he got to go the pace the jockey wanted, and that won it. He just kept going. I did think if Barton Gift ran well, Wellforth might, and the 6lb pull may make a small difference. It didn’t, but I don’t mind 40/1 pokes on 13 yos, one day! 

 

Clearly I am flailing around like a catherine wheel at the moment and while I as yet haven’t lowered my own stakes on my own tips, that day may not be far away until I recapture something of past glories, or indeed re educate myself about how to bet in a 3m+ handicap chase. So, treat these with some caution… but..

Lord Heathfield- he may just be slow, he may not be good enough and in this race they may even go a pace he won’t live with, but visually, based on those last two runs, I want to see how he goes at this distance. The price allows me a dart to find out. He is unexposed over this trip and on recent evidence he will just keep going. Whether or not 3/4 others are a furlong+ ahead when he keeps plugging on is a different matter! The trainer is in form and he is 2/4 here with his chasers in recent years. While he is 11 this is only his 3rd start under rules and I was happy to have a go. I just hope he travels ok and can keep tabs on the rest. His jumping has been fine in recent runs and while I have doubts, the price has just lured me in. I will have more confident picks, although they haven’t been running great either!

Wellforth… well 40s just tempted me in. In recent weeks he hasn’t put two good, or two bad, runs together, with a PU usually followed up by a decent run. He likes the course, he has a low weight, and he stays. There is a chance a few in this drop away and while I would fall off my seat if he won (but you never know) I think he could grab a place, and if you think that, there is always a small chance they may actually win. That may be tough in this line up but if he repeats that run behind Barton Gift he may be thereabouts. He could just be out-classed of course, but he is 40s.

Of the rest..well clearly a case can be made for a few and I am running out of time this morning so won’t go into detail. I think every horse in here has some kind of question to answer, whether it is a step up in trip, recent form, some of which looks regressive, horses getting older and looking like slow plodders etc- on that basis I can’t back any of those 6/1 or shorter- I wouldn’t have the confidence for any of their chances, linked to their price. One of them will probably win but I am happy to take them on. Battle Dust is the really unexposed one in the race but this is a tough ask for one on his 2nd chase star and who was pulled up LTO. His trainer is in better form but just a few too many ifs, even at that price of 16s.

Pace..a few can get on with this so it will be fascinating whether it falls apart, which would help the selections. The more taking each other on the better. I can’t think any one horse will get an easy time on the front but we shall see. It should be informative enough for what feels a rather open race.

Good luck whatever you go with, if anything.

 

**

MICRO ANGLES/SYSTEMS

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio – Live Test

3.10 Kemp- Gorsky Ireland / Rhapando

3.55 Banfg – Isabellesprincess

 

**

that is all for today.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. Its always lovely when they win like that. Thought I was going to have a second one when Global Thrill went 1/3 on in running but it wasn’t to be.

    Tomorrow’s racing isn’t wonderful but I have a couple of small e/w bets which I expect to go close. Both come from the in-form Greatrex stable who has had 8 of his 13 runners in February finish in the top 3. First I want a want a bet on Savoy Court in the 14:40. Highly thought of at home he won a bumper at the 2nd attempt last spring beating the highly rated Tommy Rapper who has come 1/2 length 2nd to Willoughby Court (who went on to dominate a Grade 2 Novices Hurdle) and followed that up with a 3rd in a Listed Hurdle today. Sent off as clear favourite on re-appearance he looked to have needed the run and being taken for the lead probably didn’t help either. The step up in trip should suit also. Deserves another chance here. I also want a bet on Reillys Minor in the 15:45. Won a class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m3f at Taunton but couldn’t quite follow up over 3m1f finishing a close 4th but didn’t quite stay so the drop back in trip should suit. Likes to ran prominently which will help in a big field like tomorrow. Tom Greatrex takes 7lbs off so it means that he is actually running off a lower mark than when he won. I thought he gave Ballyculla a decent enough ride in a big field handicap last weekend and his dad has al;ready booked him for the Betfair hurdle this weekend so he clearly feel he has no problems riding in big fields. Expect him to be there or thereabouts.

    Just a couple of quick notes about tomorrows two 3m+ chases. Gevrey Chambertain has a 100% record in tomorrow’s conditions in the 15:10 at Kempton (class 3, 10 or less runners, Tom Scudamore riding-thanks to Ben Aitken) however this is by far and away the hardest class 3 he has ever faced. You would expect either of the front two in the market to win but is a no bet for me. In the 15:20 at Bangor I suspect it will probably be between Saroque and Wood Yer. If the 10s on the latter was still available he would be the pick however the market correctly adjusted before I could get on so I am leaving the race alone. Might throw a couple of quid e/w on Wellforth in the morning if he drifts to 50/1+ given whilst he is probably not good enough he is one of the few we know will stay and has a nice low weight and a 1st and 2nd from 3 trips at the track.

    1. Lol, I thought Reilly’s Minor was going into the next county at times….
      But done it like a gud’n.

      G C….Ben has some great little snippets like that. I thought it just might nick it…I took 18s.

      Cheers again Nick.

      1. I had a bit e/w on Ben’s account but didn’t personally think he was going to do it today so would have properly kicked myself if he went in. He is one to back in running since if he is racing out front/prominently you know he is there to win. Happy enough with the leave on Wood Yer as well.

  2. Nickmazur
    A plot for you as you work so hard here

    Friday Kempton 3.45 (4 places)

    VIRTUOSE DU GOUET ……………………..25/1
    ( 2013 won 21K & 8K chases, total 65K)

    D H Dursden jockey tomorrow, he was the TRAINER April ’16 to 3rd February ’17
    (Now purportedly with Michael Wigham)

    History

    Owner of Virtuose du Gouet is Coldunell Ltd

    Previous horse owned by them 2014-2015 when trained by D Dursden
    Utopian SR 2/2
    2013-2014
    Utopian SR 1/1

    I have
    Bangor 3.20 Saroque {Distance & Speed)
    Kempton 3.10 Gevey Chambertin (Needs a couple of runs to warm up)

  3. Half decent racing and I’ve had a good look – these look worthy of an interest

    3.10 CLOUDY BOB

    ran an excellent race over 2.5 miles here last time, step up to 3 miles will suit

    2 points ew 10/1

    2.40 THOMAS SHELBY

    Alan King has his novice hurdlers in good shape, very little onform between this one and the fav
    so a decent price, this track may suit much better than Towcester

    3 win 5/1

    3.20 WOOD YER

    ran a huge race here on bad ground off 5lb higher last year, Jamie Bargary back in the plate,
    looks set for a big run

    1.5 ew 6/1

    2.30 FUJIN

    There is a doubt about this trip for him but he is in flying form, 2lb lower than when just touched off last time, he’ll make them go for sure

    3.00 BRING ON A SPINNER

    a rapidly improving 4yo sprinter, might be better at 6 furlongs but there should be plenty pace on, I think he’ll travel well and come with a late charge from the rear, “loves it here” according to the jockey

    I’ll be having 2 points ew on both

  4. I took the 25/1 for Lochnellin the 2.20 last night,the current 12/1 better reflects its chance,none of them have won a chase yet,lochnell is a moderate hurdler but he might really take to fences,especially with the best in the business at getting a horse from one side of a fence to the other

    1. Well just nice the odd one is running ok! Looked at Barton, you couldn’t not, but was hoping that a) he may be too high in handicap/something may just have a big more in hand, b) there would be more pace pressure and if he wanted the lead he would have to work so hard for it he would fade over last couple! As it happens he got an easier enough time, and in any case, loves it there and just kept going- he had the bloody headgear switch again, which is always a sign, and noted pre race- just shows that a suitability to conditions/track and proven stamina can make any thought of marks a bit pointless,esp only 6lb higher- got a great ride. Sadly Wellforth didn’t run same race as when they last met!

    1. yep, no excuses though, ran his race, that is as good as he is, but clearly stays, and looks like he just keeps going. They should find a slog for him you would think. Is annoying when an 8/1+ shots wins and you wasn’t close enough though – if you ignored his handicap mark, I didn’t, can see why many would have taken 12s. I have never got Barton Gift right, and have probably now run out of time to do so!! Shame something couldn’t have softened him up more.

  5. Just the one afternoon play for me

    Southwell 4.05 – Virnon 55.00 Betfair

    Alan Swinbank is 4,3,3 in these 2M class 4 events here, The horse has been mixing all codes of racing but has won around here over 1M 4F it is a bit of a step to the unknown over this trip but there is bits of pieces of stamina in the sires history to make it interesting and at the odds given the trainer stats also had a wee ew play,,,,more of interest this evening

  6. Nick – The Greatrex horse you may have missed is Boite at 40/1 3:35 – Cheekpieces and a 7lb claimer

    The price alone makes it a ew bet

  7. Ah well 4th place a small profit in the 4 to be placed market………….

    8.00 Dundalk – US Navy Seal 9.6 Betfair

    This looks like another “War Front” project to me just like Red Avenger who had dropped to a low mark and was then snapped up by the Irish, This horse formerly with John Jenkins has won over 1M 2F at Chelmsford off 69 and ran a good 2nd at Southwell over 1M 4F back in Feb 2016 off 84 lost his way after running over varying trips from 7F to 2M and now has been picked up by J R Finn off a lowly 65 and sent straight to Dundalk. Still lightly raced with just the 18 runs 12 on AW he has the stamina not usually associated with War Front’s through the Dam’s sire Seeking the Gold who’s progeny have several wins over this trip and further. He has run once for his new trainer here over 1M finishing 5th of 13 held up out the back before staying on beaten 1.7L back in November, off the track since and returning here over a more suitable trip off a winning mark makes him of real interest.

    Newcastle dual course winners – 1 qualifier

    8.15 Newcastle – Slingsby (2 course wins) 4.5 betfair

    Staking £18.90 – 2% of £945.11

    One other for tonight………

    5.45 Newcastle – Space War 12.5 Betfair

    In 1M class 6 events at Newcastle M W Easterby is 7 runs, 3 wins, 5 places with 3 different horses, as for the horse he runs off 65 and has won off this mark on tapeta at Wolves over 1M 1/2 F, over 1M at Southwell off 62 and at Lingfield over 7F off 62 showing his versatility for all AW surfaces. What really catches the eye though is his 2nd place finish here at Newcastle over 7F beaten 3/4L by Rock Warbler giving him 2lbs when the rock was rated 62 now he is 75….Had a months break after December and come back with 2 runs at Southwell when well beaten over 6F and 1M will hopefully have put him spot on for today back at Newcastle in his 1st try at this trip here

    Cheers
    Steve

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