TTP Jumps Notes: 10/02/17 (complete)

qualifiers + ratings pointers + hunter chase + notes

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

3.10 Kemp – Vyta Du Roc UP

4.25 Bang – Storm Warning

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

3.10 Kemp – Vyta Du Roc UP

Top 3

3.55 Bang – Hollywood All Star 2nd 7/1 > 5/1

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

KEMPTON

3.10

Vyta Du Roc (all hncps+hncp h + micro age) 13/8 UP 14,30

Rhapando (hncp c) 16/1 UP

 

4.50

Whatswrongwithyou (NHF) 6/4 14,30

 

BANGOR

3.20 – Lord Heathfield (micro class) 10/1 2nd 10/1 14

3.55 – Hollywood All Star (micro class) 7/1 2nd 5/1 14

4.25 – Storm Warning (NHF) 9/4 UP

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

A couple of ‘longshots’ today starting with Lord Heathfield- he looks like a bet if you are a 10/1+ follower. Despite his age he is only 1/2,2p under rules handicaps,having been PtP for the majority of his career.  This is only his 4th run under rules. The way he has run the last twice suggests he is well worth a go at this trip to my eye as he looks a dour stayer and will just keep going. There is a niggle that his last run may be as good as he is and him being niggled along is just how he runs. But on the evidence to date it does look like he will just keep going and this step up in trip could bring out more- of course you never know until they try. At least the trainer is in form.

Rhapando’s chance looks less obvious – he is bottom of HRB ratings which is never where you want to be and was brought down the last day at the 7th, his first run in 656 days, and the trainer is 0/10,1p last 30 days. There is also a stamina unknown- my head says he is probably a doubtful stayer, esp as he is related to a lot of flat horses etc. Maybe this is a run to sharpen him up for any future targets. But, having said that, he has never run over this far, and you cannot say with any confidence he definitely won’t stay. There is also the issue of the top two in the market who look tough to beat. The fact he is lightly raced and arguably unexposed over fences and those types can never be totally ruled out. The market may guide.
Webber is 6/164,27p with his handicap chasers in the 14/1-20/1 range, 1/79,9p those 22/1 +.

Of the others… well Hollywood All Star interests me at 13/2, 7/1 and I will probably have a go on him. The trainer’s horses are going well enough and if this horse repeated his December 2015 form here he would bolt up – his mark has dropped in recent months and conditions are no problem. He usually races prominently when on a going day, well based on recent runs. His form suggests he is best in soft/heavy and he looks of interest at that price, to my eyes anyway.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Just a not to say that Saturday’s qualifiers will be posted later than usual, but should no no later than 4pm Friday afternoon.

Also there will be no big race trends this Saturday. There is no big chase to get stuck into from what I can see and I decided against looking at the Betfair hurdle, mainly due to time pressure. However having said that I will have a brief look Friday afternoon and see if there are any stand out stats.

 

5. Hunter Chase – Live Test 

Jockeys (33/1<)

5.00 Bang- Pool Master

Trainers (16/1<)

5.00 Bang – Big Fella Thanks

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. A long distance traveller tomorrow, although too short for me.

    Newc. 7:15 – Signe 8/13 (12/1 max).

    LSP -4 pts

    Chris R.

  2. hi josh
    regarding whether to take a betfair price or BFSP, i am hoping to resolve the issue. yesterday i could have took 14 to 1 willyaglseiago, something like that! but took BFSP and only got 7 to 1, a similar thing happened last week, so for the next year will be taking both a price and BFSP on all 8 to 1 and above, comparing each price against BFSP. pretty sure 20+ will be better as BFSP, but will check out and be back in a year with results.

  3. Look forward to seeing the outcome of your survey.
    Sadly the large bookmakers have now taken over the betting exchanges and it is not in the punters interest
    Paddy Power own Betfair
    Ladbrokes own BetDaq
    With the bookmakers closing and restricting more and more accounts,we are being forced to the exchanges
    for a bet and the exchanges market will be manipulated by them.
    Can you give us a update in two to three months time.
    Thank You

    1. Hi Colin, I wasn’t aware of these ownerships…..surely one would have thought the monopolies commission would have prevented this….NO!.
      Are there no overseas bookmakers who are not bent or restrictive.
      What I have noticed more and more lately is a horse dropping out in 8 or 16 runner races.. It used to be quite lucrative for me. But not anymore. This surely proves collusion, or am I being naeive. lol.

      Tony Mc.

  4. Hi Gavin and Tony Mc
    Bet Fred own the Tote which now appears to have gone no promotional adverts
    Paddy Power own Betfair
    Ladbrokes own Coral and BetDaq
    Having gobbled up most of the independent bookmakers the large bookmakers are gobbling each other up.
    Paddy Power closed me down over four years ago and within seven days of buying Betfair ,shock surprise Betfair closed me down after sharing each others data.
    I contacted channel four after hearing one of Ladbrokes men speaking about the merger of Coral,there is no merger with 52% .Surprise channel four made no contact with me.

  5. Don’t frighten the bookie

    I never bet more than £10 EW per race with a bookmaker, this sometimes means that I take a lesser price with another bookmaker if I wish for increased stakes.
    Bet Victor and Betway do not give me the enhanced price if my bet is less than SP, so I only use them if I think that an enhanced price is unlikely.
    NOTE: Stan James only enhance if the bet is placed after 10.00 am.

    Three FREE programmes
    I use either Click & Clean or Bluhell Firewall to prevent being followed.
    (I have to turn off on some sites, i.e. William Hill, turn on again before leaving.)
    I run SUPERAntiSpyware three times a week to clear anything that does get through.

    In 30+ years I have yet to have an account closed.

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