The only solace at the moment, tipping wise, is that at least I am finding the odd horse that actually shortens considerably. They say that is the key to long term success, although some of them do actually have to win! It appears that the ground may not have been soft enough for Chase The Spud and I won’t follow him again until the ground is effectively near unraceable. I thought that would be near the heavy side from reports, but I am unsure if it was. He just seemed to get out-paced I think, couldn’t hold a position, although being a tad keen for a while didn’t help. Maybe he does just need a flat track also, but that was unproven. The winner was unexposed enough so never a shock and at least one of the 5 stats horses won, this time for the TJC. As I stare at some February notes I pulled together for members I can Smith/Cook in Handicaps,during Feb, are to be feared. A TTP horse chased him home. At least I will always have the trainer stats and it is good to see the TJC trial ticking along, now 6/33, 11p, +24 points.
Big Casino – 1 point win, 1/2 point place, 14/1 (general) So, 1/2 point EW,1/2 point win (1/5 points total) UP (distant 4th) 12/1
The money did indeed speak for the winner,somewhat hammered into 4/1. I was right to take on the front two, picked the wrong one to do it with sadly. Going with the big priced- plenty of 10s around last evening- unexposed chaser from a big yard maybe. Has clearly improved for the experience there. Good to see old Carli King back in some form- interesting if the blinkers work again and able to lead again, esp over further on better ground.
Maybe this is a sign that I need taking to a tipping asylum but at 14s I just couldn’t resist, in what looks a rather winnable race to my eye. What drew me in? Well he drops down to class 4 and the cheekpieces return. He is 3/9,8p in all C4 races, 1/5,4p in all class 4 handicap chases. He has been running in decent enough C3s, and been running ok. He has only ever won in headgear so I can forgive the last run, although he went well to a point in a much better race than this I think. His run two starts ago wasn’t great but that was on the back of a heavy fall the time before and he did get out-paced at times. While 2m6f may be as far as he wants to go there are enough ok runs at around this trip for me to not be put off at the price, and he seems versatile enough ground wise. NTD is also in decent enough form and Willie will have learnt a bit from riding him LTO. He is just a very good jockey and seems to be able to handle both codes. This horse did once win a C2 handicap chase at Haydock although that looks a bit of an anomaly now but he does have ability and despite his age this is ‘only’ his 20th chase start.
It also looks like he must go LH over fences, 0/5,0p the other way, and in C4, LH chases he is 1,3,3,2,1. So, some optimism I may get a run for my money. You can pick holes in the odd bit of his profile, ground niggle, (although good to soft in places here), field size, but at 14s with all the above I want to have a go. He can race prominently also and is usually a sound jumper. He has course experience also. We shall see. Maybe I am still distraught after Chase The Spud’s effort and the fact the winner was one of the first I put a line through!
Of the rest..
Well I assume Cyclop may be a non runner with a deduction to follow. The Williams horse won a week race in deep ground after a monster lay-off LTO. He is unexposed and may win. He may also bounce. He may also not be that good. Probably the former but I don’t want to jump on at that price and am happy to take him on. Pauling’s horse only ran a moderate race LTO when much better was expected. I don’t think that was a deep race and this takes a tad more jumping than Bangor. Again, unexposed, I can see why he is near the top of the market but he will need to come on for that run again. Cabrah’s form ties in with his but he was PU the last day and now has the odd question.
Some money is coming for Beggars Cross. I can see why you would take a chance and a double figure price but he has been in awful form over fences, Jonjo’s are still hit and miss, and he does have his stamina to prove. Maybe softer ground will do the trick but I was not jumping out of my chair to back him.
Famous last words…but I can’t have the rest. Plenty of those are out of form and look up against it.
So, there are reasons why Big Casino may run a big race here- cheekpieces returning and the drop in class. His mark is coming down a tad and the trainer is in decent enough form. He should find this easier than recent races. He may get run out of it in the last couple of furlongs if his stamina gives way but on the odd run it has looked like this could be more his trip these days. Hopefully they may even try to make all. Of course he may just be out of form and too long in the tooth, but the price lured me in.
You have permission to say I am off my rocker…
Tom George Chasers (any odds)
3.20 Hunt – Song Saa – WON 9/2 > 4/1
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio- LIVE TEST
4.40 Donc- Action Dancer
Nothing else today. Good luck with any bets.