TTP Jumps Notes: 31/01/17 (complete)

All qualifiers + ratings pointers + notes…

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3 

1.50 Ling – Jubilympics 2nd 11/2>7/1

Geegeez Speed

None.

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

 

LINGFIELD

1.50 – Jubilympics (NHF) 11/2 2nd 11/2>7/1

2.25 – Dormouse (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 7/2 – 2nd 6/1

4.00 – Mr Muddle (hncp chase) 15/2- UP 9/1

430 – Denny Kerrell (all hncps) 14/1 UP 7/1 (20p r4)

 

SOUTHWELL

1.30 – Elkstone (all hncps) 11/1 UP 7/1

2.00 – Franz Klammer (NHF) 14/1- UP 25/1

3.40 –

Malapie (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro distance) 12/1- 2nd 16/1

Dragon De La Tour (micro , runs this season) 10/1 3rd 7/1

4.10 – Redkalani (all hncps) 11/2 – UP

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

There are no ‘monster’ priced horses in section 2 although some interesting ones in the 10/1-16/1 range that it may be worth keeping an eye on. Generally I suppose I am looking for horses are either unexposed,and could be open to improvement, and/or are doing something different from their last run. The Organe Rogue would be an example, he was only 8s when I looked and I left him at that price but he did drift to 11s (I missed race,didn’t back him at that price either!) but, the hood he had been wearing was removed, and a tongue tie was on for the first time – both possible reasons for improvement. As it happened they also changed tactics on him, by making all, which he enjoyed. That is harder to predict but always a possibility.

With that said…

Denny Kerrell – 14/1 (and looks to be on the drift) has done nothing as yet, 0/8,0p in career, this is 4th handicap hurdle. He get’s cheekpieces and a tongue tie for the first time, which would be the reasons you would cite, were he to bolt up. Lightly raced and some aides introduced. He might just not be very good. TJC are 2/39 in handicaps, 2/29 in handicap hurdles. Jockey only 3/62 in career- there is a possibility the young lad just isn’t very good, although I suspect he has been on plenty of no hopers. He is both unexposed and doing something different, so deserves a mention. You wouldn’t be confident, but you wouldn’t be shocked were he to run better. Trainer is though 0/22,3p in the last 30 days, so, mainly negatives, but a few glimmers of light in a poor race.

Elkstone is around 11/1 but I am happy to leave him personally. He has struggled to settle yet but will win if he ever learns to. He does get the TT on first time though so no forlorn hope. He has fallen on two of his three recent chases which dampens enthusiasm. He is a pace angle and may try and make all. If he settles and the TT helps him see the race out, he may go ok. The market can guide with the yard and any drift beyond 12s would be a negative for me. Knowing my luck he will be the only one that wins!

Franz Klammer- another I am happy to leave unless market support – Longsdon is 1/47,11p with horses making their second career start, which is off-putting. 6/110,17p with NHF runners sent off 14/1 or bigger SP. At the moment he looks a longer term project.

Malapie- another for Bailey- he is unexposed and ‘could be anything’ He returns after more than 600 days off. The trainer is 3/25,7p with handicappers returning 365+ days off the track, and can ready them. If fully tuned up you could not discount. He has shown ability and for them to persevere for this long must be some indication that they think he has a career in him. Again the market can be informative, 4/96,17p with handicap hurdlers going off 14/1 or bigger.

Dragon De La Tour – 10/1, and some money around. Well he is lightly raced and unexposed. He returned the last day after a long time off and he may come on for it, if he wasn’t fully tuned up. He also steps up in trip- so doing something different. So, he looks interesting enough and a big run would not surprise. Possible EW consideration as it is hard not to fear the fav, although 11/8 is short for one who has to prove they stay. So, you never know.

Do with those views as you please. Maybe I should start touching on those 10/1, 12/1+ shots that tick those boxes of being unexposed and/or doing something different – (i have tried to focus on the 20s+ shots,but there have been a few winners in the 10/1-16/1 range I haven’t mentioned) nearly all recent non RP winners in recent days ticked one or both of those boxes. It is the bigger priced ones in section 2 that generate the profits, if you backed them all. Removing all 16/1+ winners would have them at a loss, which given there are no odds caps is no surprise.

As I have said the judgment on this service is how the RPs perform backing all, and how Section 2 performs, backing all. But, hopefully you use the information to profit over time one way or another and your judgement is against your own results. The Ratings Pointers haven’t done great since boxing day but they have been far from disastrous either and hopefully a winning run isn’t far away.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS UPDATE:

I will be completing some proper detailed spreadsheets over the next couple of days, for now, results in the usual way…

  1. Ratings Pointers: CLICK HERE>>>
  2. All Qualifiers: To follow
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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

8 Responses

  1. Two potential qualifiers for the long distance travellers at Southwell tomorrow for N. Hawke (18/1 or less).

    1:00 – Jack in a Box (although generally 33/1)
    4:10 – Point n Shoot (Has hinted at improvement going up in trip and was 7/1 with PP, but now 11/2 and been backed elsewhere. My concern is the jock who is 0/23 for trainer).

    Chris R.

    1. Cheers Chris…..it’ll work out as you go along so don’t worry about Jockeys etc. Keep the faith mate.
      Just got 40/1 on Jack in the Box….all fun.

      BOL All.

      Tony Mc.

  2. Tomorrow long distance travellers 1:00 SOUTHWELL Pearl Swan 281 miles P Bowen /Bowen 3/1
    Amantius 9/1 J Farrelly /Nick Scholfield will run for third win in row
    Kelsey 16.10 P Bowen /Bowen 281m 9/1
    3:00 Supreme Bob 12/1
    Amantius 9/1 my ew bet for sure

  3. Morning All

    Only one I can spot today on the Trainer / Jockey combos last 30 day form worth noting E/W… Unfortunately it’s on the All weather at Southwell…

    17:50 Wolverhampton – Dominium 16’s on Betfair Sportsbook at 10:00am
    Runs 15 – wins 6 – places 8 – win% 40.00 – Place% 53.33 – Win P/L 21.51 – EW P/L 22.61 A/E 2.53 I/V 3.81

  4. Hi Josh….. looking forward to seeing the spreadsheets you’re preparing. Mine only has the one’s I backed on so are far from complete, but it will be interesting to compare.

    Here’s one for today that I’m interested in….. Kick On Boss 1.10 DR. On the surface doesn’t look that interesting but sire’s chase stats for track 20% , distance 15% and going 19%. Henry De Bromhead is 33% at the track. D Robinson (jockey) claims 5 lbs and is 2 wins from 5 rides at the track (40%). The Jockey/Trainer combination SR is 18.4% and with the stable in decent form surely has to be a little value @ 10.0 on BF right now.

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