1.The Ratings Pointers
2.All Qualifiers against stats pack
3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)
4.Any general messages/updates etc
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1.The Ratings Pointers
HorseRaceBase
Top Rated
3.20 P – City Supreme 2nd 3/1
Top Three
3.20 P – Stay Out of Court UP 9/4
4.25 P- Kastani Beach 3rd 4/1
4.35 A – Better Getalong
Geegeez Speed
Top Rated
none.
Top Three
3.20 P- City Supreme 2nd 3/1
3.20 P – Stay Ou of Court UP 9/4
4.25 P – Kastani Beach 3rd 4/1
2.All Qualifiers against stats pack
PLUMPTON
3.20
City Supreme (hncp h) 14 3/1- 2nd 3/1
Stay Out Of Court (hncp h + micro class) 9/4- UP 9/4
3.50
Talk of The South (all hncps + hncp chase) 5/1- 2nd 6/1
4.25
Istimaar (all hncps) 15/2 – UP
Kastani Beach (micro runs this season) 4/1 – 3rd 4/1
AYR
4.00 – The Orange Rogue (micro class) 8/1 WON 8/1>11/1
4.35 – Betta Getalong (NHF) 10/3
3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)
Nothing to add today. No massive priced non RP horses. Good luck with whatever ones you play.
4.Any general messages/updates etc
What an up and down punting day. Hopefully we all had at least one winner on the day, Letemgo of the Ratings Pointers- and boy did they need that after what can only be described as a horrendous run of form since week 2 of Jan- which has been manageable, if you backed them all in week 1, not so much if you joined after week 1 of the month. Hopefully we can go on a little run and get all those RP losses back quick time. But,that’s the way it goes.
The stats, section 2, have had a great weekend-and in general weekends have been very good to us. With any luck your pins landed on more than just the one winner, with Alan King having a good Saturday and a couple of others on Sunday -and very nearly a 20/1 cherry on top in the last at Sedgefield. Sadly the horse bolted for the paddock/stables when having the race in the bag. Annoying, but these things even themselves out over time. We will back winners that look defeated only for a horse in front to do that.
But, it is good to see the core stats working and throwing up good priced winners. As long as we have that foundation, we will do just fine, over time. If you can stomach the odd losing run.
That will be all for today.
Josh
42 Responses
Is The Orange Rogue a topical tip? 🙂
Still waiting for that ‘Like’ button lol
Won 11/1 !
I didn’t back either.
Hi Chris, I got 12/1 on Orange Rogue after your early comment lol.
Tony Mc.
So happy happy happy.
We possibly have our first qualifier for the long travellers tomorrow.
3:20 Ayr – The Horsechestnut (if 8/1 or less).
Currently available at around 15/2, and Jenny Candlish & jockey had a winning qualifier here 2 weeks ago.
Chris R.
cheers chris,
Look very interesting stats you’ve produced,
Mike
Cheers Chris….you saved me wearing out my pencils…lol. true!.
BOL mate.
Tony Mc.
Stable has a reputation for success on heavy going and the horse lost a shoe last time which could explain the poor run. The horse won a PtP in heavy ground.
Hi Chris. Sorry didn’t reply to your HRB question… yep when I remember I make sure I remove any odds caps from the saved system so that you get all potential qualifiers. Otherwise you end up missing some as they appear throughout day if odds shorten etc.
Josh
AYR 3.30 interesting ,hurdler with poor last chase effort,but he will stay on trip and he is fine on going
that race is also Achill Road Boy,Coltherd/Coltherd
below tip from timeform
£88.75 Stuart Coltherd’s profit with only one runner on the card (chases) since the start of the 2011/12 season (saddles ACHILL ROAD BOY)
40% Sam Coltherd’s strike rate in the last 14 days (rides ACHILL ROAD BOY)
Definitely open to improvement at 3m +, but this is a stronger race than that win.
City Supreme 3/1 given by bookie 7/1 market forecast currently @4.20 on exchange looks like gambling
Istimaar travelled 165 miles
I’ve backed it as it has had no chance since 2nd in seller, but this is a weak race; once a good flat horse.
Hi josh does marlee Massee qualify Ayr 3.3 micro class Alexander ? Top on hrb plus 3rd on geegeez speed .
Hi Jamie, nope that race is a ‘novices’ limited handicap and those are excluded from the main stats, just covered in the bonus section. That is something for me to look at next year as some of the trainers will just do well in all handicaps but that was an easy way to reduce the number of races we would be looking at etc, although it may be the case I need to do that on a track by track basis next season, or maybe have a novices handicap section of each track. You know he will bolt up now 🙂
Cheers josh I see it missing from my filter.gonna give it a try mind as with odds forecast filter between 2.38 and 17 and best in 5 runs 1st 2nd 3rd 4th gives the stat a 72.73% win rate .so worth a small tickle .
I been following this guys tips seems to specialize on AW certainly more profitable days than losers so far:
WIN – 1.30 Southwell – Free Bounty (2.88)
PLACE – 3.05 Southwell – Colourbearer (2.7)
LAY – 2.00 Southwell – Retrieve (4.0 Liability) Max 5.5
EACH WAY – 3.40 Southwell – Dark Forest (20/1) 1/4 Odds 3 Places
Place a level stake bet on each, so 1pt would be.
1pt to win
1pt to place
1pt lay
0.5pt each way (1pt total bet)
Odds shown are the odds taken on the Betfair Exchange at the time I placed the bets with the exception of the Each Way Bet which I place on the Sportsbook.
Any questions please get in touch, you can email me direct on aaron@4tofollow.com
EW shot a 9/1 winner 20/s earlier yesterday his place bet won 8/1!
thanks for Dark Forest had a little nibble @13.5
Was out of the house by then on an emergency….. Grankids fighting in school. lol.
I’ll stop his pocket money for me missing that.
I seem of late to pick big priced animals that either become Nr’s or miss a place by 1 position! They pay well when your right though!
Anyway today’s spot is in the 4:35 Ayr Mc Gowans Pass. Reasons a plenty. Stable 28.5% win, 57.1 Pl at Ayr with runners in bumpers over 5yrs. Last 30 day form ran 10, 4 Wins, 6 Pl.
Jockey an up and coming young female of the Irish jump scene, with a good record for the stable as well as 2 from 3 for Sandy at Ayr.
The horse. Unraced but his Sires Stat’s for Hvy ground NHF races are 7 Runs, 4 Win & 5 Pl.
Those 4 winners where all different horses and had Sp’s of 7, 8, 16 & 20/1!
Additionally his progeny have only run 5 times at Ayr, with 2 wins & 4 Places!
I rest my case, an ew bet is the least I can do.
Good luck Gary, you seem to have made quite a compelling case for that one given the odds! I may have to have a small EW dabble. Looks a hot race, 3 LTO winners who look sure to go well and Johnson comes all this way for just the one ride for Lacey, who does well in bumpers. But at that price, you dont need many to go in over time! GL
Great spot on McGowans I’d missed it. Definite play with Overbury on the Dam side.
If today isn’t the one it’s going to be worth watching out for over hurdles maybe next season, have a look at what Seemorelights did a couple of weeks ago. He ran that one in a bumper first time and was well beat but reports said lost a shoe, then ran at Musselburgh on good you’d have to be thinking not enough of a test.
Today’s race looks fairly hot…but as we know anything can happen in a bumper! There’s a few quid available at an average of 22 on BF as I type…could go in but more likely out to possibly anything you can pick. Around 65s or higher leading up to the race will make it worthwhile finding out.
Money now seems to be coming. I took 30’s on BF & 28 ew with Bookies.
I note the daily punt highlights the Johnson horse which Josh mentions and gives supporting stats. Obviously a good chance but there is another less than compliment stat:- RJ riding for T Lacey.
Hurdles 15 rides 8 wins & 11 placed, NHF Races 9 rides 0 wins 2 places!
This bumper is shaping up to be either one that’s going to fill the boots, or one that’s going to mean bread and vinegar dinners for 2 weeks.
As Steve M noted….Big Bad Dream has to be on the list too. Mountain High runners have turned up big ones in bumpers, though note the last bumper winner I can recall from Donald Whillans was 5 or 6 years ago. Nodda High Kid SP 80, BF memory is dim but think I took about 120. Sadly there are no more Sir Harry Lewis’s to deliver that again in a bumper…but have a look what he beat!! And at Muss too.
The yard is a clever one and look to be cautious not to over race one too early in its career, but clearly with the right ammo they can strike with an early one (although I remember reading after Nodda won that it was a little unexpected.)
…and they both have to beat the winner of the Newbury Spring Sales bumper + one of Lucinda Russell’s that could be anything.
Hi All
Just noticed an interesting stat on 2 horses Trainer/Jockey Combo 5 year course form at tasty ew prices.
16:15 Southwell – Ramblow 16’s – Trainer jockey combo Appleby/Curtis
runs 17 – wins 5 – Places 9 – win % 29.41 – Place% 52.94 – win P/L 6.75 – EW P/L 12.70 – A/E 1.91- I/V 2.39
————————————————————————
16:35 Ayr – Big Bad Dream 66’s – trainer jockey combo D.Whillians/C.Whillians
runs 23 – wins 7 – places 11 – win% 30.43 – Place% 47.83 -win P/L 65.00 – EW P/L 78.46 – A/E 2.54 – I/V 2.71
Speculative I suppose but I’m having a small e/w on both and e/w double.
had a little ew on Big Bad Dream @5o’s 🙂
Well done Martin, Its looks good when it comes off.
I’m going to weigh in with one that’s not been covered yet.
Jaisalmer 2.45 Plumpton
It’s probably a watcher for this unless it hovers around the 65 or 70 mark leading up to the race. More likely 200+ which will probably mean it’s not time yet.
We all know what the Bradstock’s can do right?
Ran in a reasonably hot looking bumper at Warwick then had a recent spin over hurdles. I’m rubbish at analysing looks, but the photo I’ve seen is shouting deep chested tank to me.
The rest of the field may not contain anything higher than a class 3 handicapper, with the Hobbs runner potentially anything of course.
It’s a long long shot and there’s nothing from the yard to go on other than a £35k purchase price. If it’s 160+ on BF it may be worth trying to get 15 or 16 for a first 3 for something small…in the hope it runs OK and ends up back end of midfield and a better opportunity in future.
If it has a big future then today will surely be the only chance to ever get 50+.
Well that gave me a good run at 95-100!! Killed the price for ever as slightly anticipated though.
that is top punting, well done. How did you end up playing him, out of interest?
Partially instinct and an interpretation of how good the others might be, combined with the purchase price, the sire, that bumper run at Warwick, the fact that the Bradstocks know how to buy a good one…all wrapped up with a BF and early bookies price that was worth a hit to find out. When the BF price doesn’t go skywards into the high 100s or higher then you can normally deduce that a runner looks in reasonable shape in the parade.
Looked strong in a photo I found online….wasn’t difficult to visualise it being hard to peg back in the ground if went out in front…and to cap that last bit off with the same jockey who was running them into the ground yesterday from the front on Samdibien and was visibly gutted when it came down (and I was on it at about 38 I think)! Despair! But good luck to all of you who were on that very lucky Letemgo!!!
Inspirational there Steve; took it at 14’s without the fav… good man:)
Johnny
I’d say that was a clever bet Johnny! Good move should have thought of it myself. I think it was only around 12s on BF for the first 2. Got a little back on the FC…but the real killer is a 5 ew double going on the Whillans bumper runner! Now that will be fun to watch! Can’t say I’m confident but couldn’t leave a Mountain High bumper runner untouched.
Well done Steve:) nice little ew double!
worth all that groundwork…
Yeah nice. Now we want to get it when they all win right!! One day!
A good day. These posts on the members don’t get indexed by Google do they Josh?
Eminent Poet today Venetia winner at Ayr travelled about 200 miles,74 days break
thanks for MCGOWANS PASS gary, had to back it after that write up! £2 ew BFSP, got £9.12 back,.
Thanks. The blog gave 2nd & 3rd behind an odds on Fav TC Paid £150+ if any one had it.
For me it was so close but massive difference on return as had it in a Patent with a winner and 30’s win only as well as the ew bet. Combination of a stable worth watching with a jockey worth watching on a horse bred to do the business .
Thanks Gary, MCGOWANS PASS was my last bet before my emergency dash…got your’s missed the others except Orange Rogue.
Good Shout mate.
Cheers.