Quick note before I do anything else…
Tim L, member, reader,AW enthusiast it seems! (comments every now and then) DM’d me on twitter asking if I would have a quick look in HRB at Adam Kirby/Ian Williams – I think he knew I was at my lap-top having just cheered on Derulo for 4th at 80/1 (nice when you can cheer a 4th placed horse)
Now, Sunday HRB research sessions on request are not a regular part of the service but here here is what I found from a 30 second glance… 🙂
Ian Williams/Adam Kirby
9/29,12p ALL combos, ever, AE 1.41, -2 SP, (suggests many smashed off boards, so taking early prices would see you ahead??..)
(1/6,2p on flat turf BTW)
1/6,2p at Wolvs. Chelm/Lingfield are 3 each, 2/2 at Southwell
3/4 in Maidens
0/16,3 those going off 7/2 or Bigger, SP
10/3 or shorter are 9/13,9p..+ 14 SP
Tim asked because they team up on Monday at Wolvs…
5.30 – Gabrial The Thug 5/1
I am sure he may post a comment as I believe his profile for this looks interesting given the class/rating etc, and the Kirby booking.
It will be interesting if he is backed in to 10/3 or shorter, but whatever he does, that is a combo for you all-weather fans to keep an eye on. I suspect backing all those around 8/1 or shorter may be very profitable at early prices as many it seems are well backed, beating SP well.
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TIPS
None. A couple of ok chases but small fields.
2.50 Bang, I/TTP followers will be hoping that Whisky Chaser makes all.
Likewise in the 3.10 N, I suspect that No Planning will try and do the same under Cook, a TJC test selection below…
(a muggy front running double maybe 🙂 – think that Derulo run has gone to my head…)
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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Jumps Angles
Trainer Jockey Combos – Live Test
2.10 New – Maxed Out King (12/1<) (#2) H1, G3 , 14 UP
3.10 New – No Planning (12/1<) (#2) 14 UP
4.10 New – No More BlackJack (12/1<) (#2) 14 UP
1.40 New- Beeno (#10) G3, H3 – 2nd 5/2
Other
Jan Trainers – Pointers
2.10 Newc- The Herds Garden- UR 20/1 (when leading 2 out/looking dominant)
3.20 Bang – Rolling Thunder H3, G3 UP
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KEY:(applicable across the blog)
H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
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REQUEST…
As a request, and this is just a personal thing- if you ‘tip’ a horse in the comments, a quick word, on why you like the horse would be appreciated- mainly as I like to learn what influences others reading of races etc- doesn’t have to be much… ‘eye catcher LTO, trainer form, well handicapped,I like the name’ etc. Cheers.
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That will be all for today.
Good luck with any bets. I will start to discuss Cheltenham at some point this week and my plans for the blog during that week.
A couple of you have now asked if I can set up a page for you all to discuss any Ante Post wagers etc and I will get onto that also. I may get that up today and the post will ‘live’ in the Free Reports/Systems tab, as well as being visible on the home page.
Josh
25 Responses
Don’t know where HRB get their odds from.According to them,”Gabriel the thug” does not qualify on the odds and i put in up to 8/1
No idea, it certainly isn’t a live feed I don’t think, do they take RP forecast odds or something, no idea. Will be interesting if he is backed, stats suggest he won’t be winning if he isn’t!
Have noticed the same, and it does look like it uses the RP forecast odds, although I get the impression it does pick up on live odds at some stage as the qualifier list can change due to price on the day.
Chris R.
I was just doing an initial trawl of the cards when Gabrial The Terror 400W caught my eye – 25/1. I came on here to read up and saw the query about The Thug which made me reflect about the Koukash runners, knowing that they a decent record at the track.
Back to get some of the 25s, aargh 20, oh no B365 cut it to 14/1 before my very eyes 🙁
In the 530 Frap from the same yard/owner has a C5 win over 8.5f (stiff track) and is 14/1 or 16/1
Has Koukash had a falling out with Fahey since Ian Williams has 4 Koukash runners tomorrow all of whom used to be trained by Fahey?
Hmmm. Not sure. Most of them are exposed Cappers aren’t they? And many may improve for a change of scenery. Fahey may have wanted to create room also. Assume K still has horses with him but no idea. Not a bad strategy having themy spread around.
Yeah looking back to yesterday’s runners Bell Heather is still trained by Fahey so he must have just moved some of the older horses to Williams.
I’m not aware of their enduring relationship ending but Fahey has not given him the number of winners in the last year that they had had previously.
Fahey has expanded his operation over the last 18 months and I know another longstanding owner took away all his horses last summer, but, in that case, the problem seemed more deep seated than the growth of the operation.
Hi guys, as alluded to above by Josh I asked him to dig me out some stats as I thought the booking of Kirby could be significant.
Wolvo – Gabriel the Thug 5/1
This horse races in A Class 6 0-55 for the first time in a long while, getting in on a very very lenient mark of 52.
The last time this horse was below 55, it raced off 54 and duly won a 0-55 comfortably and followed up with a win straight after off 57. Since then the horse has not been so low in the weights and this is first time back in a 0-55.
4 time C&D winner, with a highest winning mark of 65, winning also at marks of 60 and 57 beforehand also.
Alongside this, Ian Williams has booked Kirby the steer which is a sign of intent itself, with Kirby never ridden the horse prior but is 9/29 9places for the trainer.
Taking all into account the horse is simply too well treated to not be a solid bet.
Another i did last time was heavily gambled in from 8/1 to 2/1, running on well at the finish. Has been upped in trip and off the same mark with hot 7lb claimer Lewis Edmunds booked looks well worth another go at 8/1.
500 Wolvo – Pivotman 8/1
Have Pivotman in my Tracker and will have a small bet on him. My problem is the field size at present (13) he always gets hammered when field size goes above 12! Only playing at all because may be a Nr o two, other conditions are good and he has yet to race here in a 13+ field but has won a 12 runner here!
Surely 1 more runner will be ok lol!
Great shout Tim….. It won so easily.
Great Tracker horse.
Cheers lad.
Cheers Tim. Well done, threw some change at him. Covers my Gabrial wager- and no doubt he will now trail in last! bracing myself. I don’t think i have backed a horse to win, that has shortened considerably on the sand for quite some time! Maybe those losers just stick in the memory. GL
Well guys, today worked out pretty nicely!
Hope a few of you jumped on one or the other or both!
Dr Koukash likes to move his horses every few seasons from what I read in the racing post awhile ago, the article also pointed out that he has less interest I’m horses now as he brought a rugby stadium?
My bet today is Cabragh in the 3.20 as I follow the trainer in the lower classes. Another I will be watching is
Emperors hill in the 1.50 as I’m working on a system for the jockey D.Bass and hope it’s a thread of gold 🙂
Money has come for Gabrial The Thug despite Hugh Taylor putting up Hymn For The Dudes which has shortened from 5s to be the new fav. American Patrol in the opener at Wolverhampton is the gamble of the morning, though. Interesting to see how that goes after being smashed in from 5s (and higher last night) to evens in places. I was recommended Metronomic last night at 7/4…now out to 4s in places as a consequence. Never mind a drifter (so long as you’re BOG or can cash out and place again).
Paul
The 5.30 is going to be an interesting racing like you Paul with some money for Hymn For The Dude too, I did place little bet last night on Gabrial The Thug, after Tim and Josh have pointed him out.
GL all
Some support also in this race for Cold Fusion who was a super sires selection recently
4.10 N/C bad race, but although Pamak D’Airy is 14, he returns to a track where he’s won 4 times, won on ground and class also.
In this field trainer is third 14% last 50 runs.
Class reliable jockey in Brian Hughes who can improve a horse in running.
On my ratings only needs to improve two places to make current 20/1 worthwhile a place and who knows.
I fear his next trip will be to Harry The Butcher….ran no race at all.
Still 20/1 from Another Mattie placed is ok with our run of longer priced
selections from the Member page.
Tell me you had a small wager Josh lol.
The Herds Garden so unlucky. McCains horses are coming back into form.
Indeed, looked to be on top there, but you have to jump. twice now. 20s as well.
I see a qualifier for Steve’s Super Sires is running in the 5.30 Wolv.
Cold Fusion……
Frozen Power 8 runs….4 wins…5places
price currently 20/1 Betfair.
great shout on Gab The Thug guys!! Kirby was up for that one!!
Job done! Good teamwork that, Tim had a hunch, quick dive into HRB, his supporting evidence. Super. Easy game sometimes, every now and then haha.
Put a smile on face