Sartorial Elegance – 1 point win – 7/1 (SJ/BetBright) 13/2 (general) UP (rather poor,never really going for whatever reason)
As De Fer – 1 point win – 16/1 (general) UP (ran ok, but maybe handicapper has him)
Yep, when struggling, just stick with your micro angles research! Or just do that anyway if they have selections in a ‘tipping’ race. Backing 2 and not getting one in the frame is always a bad sign. Cyclop backers rather unlucky there as he was cruising, but jumping wins it. Always heartwarming to see and old-timer do that, winning from a career high handicap mark aged 12. My form on the other hand, still poor in general. 13 losers in a row, +7.25 points for the month.
This looks a competitive little contest and it should be an entertaining watch, hopefully all the way through the winning line! I narrowed this down to the two selections, Morney Wing and Dawson City. I think it is between those, albeit my inconsistent chasing eyes may have missed something no doubt.(well,on morning consideration i could throw Cyclop into that mix) No, there are no doubts. As De Fer is romping away with this,and if he falls at the last, (the morning market now suggests plenty of doubts, bugger) Sartorial Elegance will be there to pick up the pieces 🙂
Sartorial Elegance… well there is something of the ‘could be anything’ about this one still- does the handicapper have him, or does he have plenty in hand still for last year’s winning trainer. (Tizzard is 9/29,17p all handicap chasers here,last 730 days) I suspect the latter. But for being un sighted at the fence before turning for home LTO he may have given my winning tip, Morney Wing (yep, some do win, occasionally) plenty to think about. He had not been asked a question and to my eye looked to be about to cruise passed Dawson City, the perennial chasing bridesmaid. It was a case of what might have been. Who knows, there was a long way to go. Given he rocks up here, they clearly think he is a stayer and who am I to question his judgement. He could relist this test and although he has a big weight, looked worth a stab. He had jumped well enough up to that point and is the young/unexposed one in the field. 13/2 or thereabouts was fair given that profile.
As De Fer- well I just couldn’t leave him at 16s here. Although he is 11 he has had a stop and start career an is fairly lightly raced for his age. Back in 2011 he won a handicap chase off 135, carrying 11-12, and as such, I don’t wish to assume, at this price, that this mark is beyond him. I couldn’t help but be drawn in by his form last Jan/Feb where he hacked up at Warwick (admittedly off 101 with claim) but that was a decent enough race, it was very testing,and he was in a pace battle for a long way – and he destroyed them. He then beat off Quite By Chance over a short enough 2m4f at Wincanton. After some time in the doldrums those wins suggested they had found the key. He clearly isn’t the most consistent and can tip up every now and then, but you have to take chances at this price. He is 4/7,4p in Jan/Feb in handicap chases, and if he doesn’t win here, fingers crossed I can get my money back on him soon. He just seems to relish the mud and stamina doesn’t look a problem. And he has course form. Oh and the jockey, a future star (him and James King may be the Dickie and AP of their generation, you never know!) is 6/12,7 places on Honeyball’s handicap chasers. So, all in all, I thought there was enough to go on at that price. He may UR, he may not be good enough etc etc. But, I am comfortable at that price. It feels too big, IF he could get back to that Warwick type form. It is the 3rd run of the season, and this may have been a target. I would want to see money, into 12/1<, not many of Honeyball’s over 12s go that well and the market usually gets them right, in that sense at least.
Of the rest…
Well I won’t say anything to put you off Dawson City- he is a ratings pointer qualifier for the members club but I suppose 4s has made my decision easier, at least tipping wise. He could go close here, he may win. He likes the track and he stays, and he is in form/running well. He does make the odd error which always seems to cost him, and may even want further than this. But, he will give backers a run for their money, or should do. Like Morney Wing, this race comes 17 days after what was a tough enough race. It will be interesting to see how the front two cope with those exertions…
Morney Wing…well he owes me nothing and is clear top rated on both HRB and Geegeez Gold, for information- so, he may well hack up. That is the best I have seen him travel and jump LTO and if he does the same again he won’t be far away. At a track like this, it may be as short as he wants to go, but he stays well. He can hit one, not LTO so credit to Paddy B, and it will be interesting to see how the quieter style of Noel Fehily gets on with him. He is up 5lb also and has 11-12 to lug, after that hard race LTO. His price is fair enough but he has won for me last time and I thought I would take a stab on a couple of others. My head says the Tizzard horse would have run him close had he stayed up,and given he is open to more progress,that was the call. Morney may still be improving also in conditions like this, that isn’t impossible. Again, backers should get a run for their money. I think I will cope ok with him winning, I wasn’t torturing myself as I can do, staring at my notepad, and was happy with the selections. I am clear in my mind why the other two are worth a go. (so, ratings rise,short enough trip,change of jockey,big weight,hard race LTO to eye, are main reasons for leaving)
I was happy to leave the rest. Barton Gift is up in the weights, is inconsistent,won’t be able to dominate I don’t think,and is a C4 animal these days I suspect. Onderun is held by three of these I think (Tizzards would have been ahead I think) and I can’t see why he should over turn that, they are stronger stayers to my eye, and have more quality about them. 6/1 feels ok,not generous in that context. Alfie Spinner is 12 now, and doesn’t win that often. Conditions look ok. Many of Kerry’s have been needing the run this season and I want fit horses onside for a test like this. They won’t hang about here I don’t think. Cyclop needs more, and I am not sure why he would improve on recent runs. Interested when he runs in a race carrying less than 11st, a small horse, that may make the difference. He does stay well enough. I can’t have those that remain, for one reason or another.
PACE- As De Fer may try and make all and happy days if he can see off the likes of Barton Gift and get to the front. We could have some fun then. Abracadabra can be up there but jumped to his left LTO which won’t help in trying to hold a position. Saroque can lead but isn’t in good enough form to hold a position at the moment I don’t think. OnDeRun was up there for a time LTO, but gives the impression he may track the pace if unable to get an easy lead without much effort. At Warwick, As De fer was booted to the front when he hacked up,and was keen to see off any others. Maybe the same again. Those are the main pace angles. Morney Wing and Sartorial E may try and track that pace.
We shall see how those two go! GL
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
3.20 Winc- Alfie Spinner- WON 12/1 (-15p R4)
Trainer/Jockey Combos – NEW- LIVE TEST
3.00 Lud – Fille Des Champs (12/1< guide) UP
3.20 Winc- Alfie Spinner (12/1<) WON 12/1 (-15p R4)
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– LIVE TEST
3.00 Lud – Fille Des Champs- UP
Jan Trainer Pointers
8.30 Chelm – Tell A Story
Southwell USA– TEST (14/1<) (0/3,2p so far 2017)
2.00 – Higher Court
NEW TJC RESEARCH
I have spent part of today researching some trainer/jockey combos that we can track over jumps throughout the year. The other jumps live test above (handicap hurdle/chase portfolio) hasn’t gone that well to date,albeit I need to go back through results. Anyway, hopefully this one fares better but there is a reason I like to test them live, in front of your eagle eyes. The research is sound, and simplistic in places. Qualifiers will be posted above for you to use as you please.
That was a decent race with the two with the best formlines coming to the fore, and arguably the one with the best formline of this season, over fences, winning. (in terms of winners produced anyway)
Some immediate post race thoughts are below… for interest..
Both the front two clearly have a bright future, bringing together two of the strongest chase (novice hncp chase) formlines of recent weeks, that of Uttoxeter, and Ascot. I don’t think there is much between those two on that evidence- Fehily was able to dictate, which probably won it for him in the end, Russell settling his further back and maybe just having too much to do. Sticky ground which can be hard to make up ground in. He ran with credit. Anyone taking under 3s ish on him (which was probably fair) needs to have a word 🙂
Get Involved- as yet doesn’t know how to jump it seems. Hoped slower ground/longer trip/slower pace may help with that. No excuse, had plenty of space around him and clear air in front. I would resort to an easier track with him/easier fences- not sure what Dickin’s main hunting grounds are really, that was one of them, over fences at least.
Little Jon- great run, his jumping can be iffy but ok here. I still can’t work out if he sees out 3m properly or not- always think there will be stronger stayers than him over that trip, in a decent run race. Strong run 2m4f/5f may be best but interesting to watch him NTO
Monbeg Gold- what a monkey- swinging away, sulked up straight, rallied. Not sure what they try with him next, issues seem to be mental. I would try leading/making all with him – remember Achimoto (or whatever his name) who won for McPherson making all at Chepstow at a monster price (Malcolm still spending those winnings!) that helped him – they should try that. It may help him in a race if he never sees another horse, and tries to bully from the front. Blinkers worked to an extent I think.
Rathlin Rose – probably entered a lot of notebooks. Loomed up menacingly – a TTP stats selection in that race, I didn’t back him, and was starting to worry! In the end, fitness got to him I think and his jumping started to go. But, the way he travelled into that, in what was a decent race for me, suggests he has a fair bit in hand and the Pipes will be excited. He has wins in him. Very good run given his time off. Hopefully no issues post race and he doesn’t ‘bounce’ NTO. Needs to hack up once/twice to be considered for Festival type handicaps I think. One to watch.
Just while this is on my mind, before I shut down for the evening as it approaches 10pm..
Peter Bowen had a winner at
Ludlow Market Rasen even, on Wednesday, his first for a while..well, he was 0/24 before that over the last month. He revealed there had been a cough in the yard but was not confident that had gone and seemed rather upbeat, suggesting most of his string was bouncing and in fine fettle. I wonder if they are about to go on a run over the next 2-3 weeks… he has 3 at Ludlow, with maybe Land of Vic, and Grape Tree Flame looking most interesting/worth closer inspection.
That will be all for today.