3.35 – Sego Success / Kaki De La Pree
3.15 Kempt – No Duffer
Sego Success – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) UP
Kaki De La Pree – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) Fell
Ah, bugger. Well at least the stats profile worked. Only doubt was the ground for OneForArthur and bit perturbed by being a hold up horse,and a proper one at that. But handled both no problem, which is annoying. It was more his best form was on decent ground, rather than he hadn’t proved he couldn’t handle heavy I suppose. And yes, he was top rated Geegeez Speed, and Top 3 HRB, the only one on the shortlist to be so. 16/1. Oh this game is a mental challenge alright. Next time. Great ride from Fox. Painful watching him bounce over the last.
Well I am hoping one of these two may help me bring up the hat-trick in this race, having tipped up both Russe Blanc (25/1) and Hawkes Point (14s) for the last two renewals, if my memory serves me correctly. Were any of you reading in Jan 2015,and have remained?
Where to start… well I did do a trends/stats piece for members and anyone using that may come up with their own shortlist depending on the stats that jump out to them.
A rough profile coule be.. 0-24 career runs, 0-6 career wins, 1-5 chase wins, NO win G3 level previously
Applying those stats leaves: Vivaldi Collonges (i think too much weight/not enough in hand/he isn’t Denman|Native River) Milansbar (backed in Welsh National..hmm..he made bad blunder 2nd fence,but even at that early stage looked like was struggling in a G3 field,but may be the interesting ‘biggie’) Sego Success, Viva Steve (unexposed,Brennan up,don’t like 66 day break – 10/10 winners actually ran within last 45 days,and doubt if he has the class and stamina on this ground-it could be very holding/tacky) One For Arthur (interested me,hold up type,but again his best form,outside of novice races,is on a fairly sound surface,wasn’t convinced as to stamina in this ground) Kaki De La Pree, Midnight Prayer (too old, gosh I know, leaving a 12yo! Surely too old,and not in best form) BallyCross (interesting,but with 0 chase win,a tad too inexperienced for me,tough for 6yo,concern that not hardy enough and in that context,8s short enough,but unexposed) Kingswell Theatre (too unpredictable,poor LTO,but big price) SpookyDooky (just no,surely not-well I shouldn’t be so dismissive,he might win. Unexposed enough,I would have liked to have seen more the last two runs,albeit ground may have been lively enough. An interesting outsider,albeit Jonjo still hit and miss and if aimed at this would have assumed another jock on maybe,albeit they are 2/3. Not 100% convinced as to stamina for test like this,but not a ‘fall of your seat’ winner by any means)
Another alternative is actually to use a couple of ‘trends/stats’ micro angles… indeed those that had 0-1 hncp chase wins (8/10 winners) and 0-1 handicap wins (7/10 winners) (good profits for both angles, small no. of runners) leaves a shortlist of…
Doctor Harper (not convinced as to stamina for a test like this,Pipe 0/6,0p in race,has won a G3,only ran 13 days ago,doesn’t feel like a target- a ‘get your mark down for Cheltenham run?) Sego Success, Shotgun Paddy (broke blood vessel last day, 60+ days off,previous G3 winner- this race- a neg) One For Arthur (damn) (as above) , Kaki De Le Pree, Knockanrawley (had too long off for me to consider,looks dour stayer though,tough ask) Ballycross (as above)
Knowing my luck the winner isn’t mentioned above, that would be typical.
But, even ignoring those stats as a starting point, there is plenty to recommend the selections…
Well he was hammered into favouritism for this last year, coming down at the second, and I suspect he may be well backed again. King is in flying form and you wonder if this has been the target, he does have a great record in the race as a trainer. I like the first time blinkers- in the sense that he won well in first time Cheekpieces las season and may do so here. He needs soft ground I think to be at his best, and good ground can excuse that last run, and plenty of others. He made a pleasing reappearance at Bangor and caught the eye there. He also has 12lb less on his back than he did in this last year. That run in the 4 miler at Chelts, and various runs in the mud over 24/25f suggest he is well worth a crack at this trip. He can race prominently, he can be held off the pace. With restricted vision I hope they get him in the front line. With a clear round, he should give backers a run for their money. He looked the most interesting at double figures to my eyes.
Kaki De La Pree…
Well this 10 year old is rather lightly raced, unexposed and looks a possible dour stayer in the making.. he hacked up in soft, at Carlisle, over 25f, in a C2 handicap hurdle, and in 2013 (he has had a few problems it seems down the years) in a way that screamed stayer- any horse that does that at Carlisle stays. And it was a similar kind of performance,admittedly over fences, that marked Russe Blanc out as a possible 3m5f+ horse, before his win in this last year. It looks like he likes the mud and will stay. He may not, but is well worth a crack. He could have a fair bit in hand also. He ran with credit at Bangor, which may have been sharp enough, and bumped into a nice young Richards chaser that had buckets in hand. Both horses pulled well clear of the rest. His jumping will have to stand the test but, I haven’t seen anything to put me off yet, and of course he will need to come on for that last run/stay sound. I have to take that on trust. I take some confidence that Fehily has been booked, some sign of confidence with any luck. The trainer is in decent form also, most of his running well. He looked interesting, given all of the above.
You can read the reasons why I am against those others above. The rest, not mentioned, do not inspire me- most are old boys and/or out of form to my eye,and/or do not look good enough to my eyes. Clearly I may be nowhere near the winner, but hopefully they both run a good race. Hopefully Milansbar doesn’t plod passed the lot, that would be heartbreaking at 22s!
PACE..well, there is a bit on paper, but I am not convinced they will blast off, much like Sandown last weekend. Jockeys will know it is testing,and that in theory there is a lot of pace, and I don’t envisage 6/7 blasting over the first two. We shall see. No excuse for either my two. They can both race prominently enough and I hope Sego may try and lead, or be up there, going his pace. Kaki hopefully not too far behind. Front 3rd would be nice. Of course if there is loads of pace, and they are a bit further back, that will be no bad thing. This will be slow motion stuff come the end.
No Duffer – 1 point win – 6/1 (general) UP 10/1, poor run.
I will keep this shorter- I have tipped this horse twice before, and he has won both times. At this price, I just thought why not have one more go on him, he owes me nothing..and… he is in form, lightly raced for his age, runs up with the pace, jumps well usually, and has guts- plenty of guts. He pulled away from the rest LTO with one other, in what was a decent enough race- he went at it a long way from home also. I don’t think this mark is beyond him and some cut in the ground is fine. It can be a test around here and he stays further, which is no bad thing. He looks solid enough.
He is also a TTP ratings pointer horse..the other two, Volnaix De Thaix and Carlos Way Back- the former has a great chance ‘IF’ he stays- and that is an if, I don’t think there will be a hiding place here- but he hasn’t had many goes over the trip and it may well be fine. Not a shock winner by any means, but he will need to stay- I am not 100% convinced, but his price is fine. Carlos Way Back is a long shot but could place, and you just never know- (i have an EW bet on him as part of members post) – the trip was too far the last day, and he bolted up before that- I suspect his legs may just not go quick enough, but stranger things have happened.
Kruzlinin can clearly take this but 8lb higher than when winning this last year. He had a gruelling race the last day and it will be interesting how much that may have taken out of him. He can jump to his left as well. But, he could clearly win. Sandy Beach is unexposed also. So, really, this is a competitive race, and probably one to just watch. But I can’t resist, and No Duffer would be my most confident of those in this race. The rest have some questions to answer, mainly Silvergrove- he looks out of sorts- well, hated Aintree fences LTO- it would be nice to see him bounce back but I would like to see more before getting involved again.
That will do for this one.
Saturday TJC (14/1<)
3.15 K- Kruzhlinin H1
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
2.15 Weth – Grey Gold G3
3.35 Warw – Mountainous
Pam Sly Fillies/Mares
3.25 Weth – Bonnets Vino H1
NTD Unexp Chasers
3.35 War- Ballycross
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– LIVE TEST
2.40 Kemp- Old Guard/ Little Boy Boru G3
1.40 Weth- Murray Mount H3
3.25 Weth- Huff And Puff
3.15 Kemp- No Duffer H3
3.35 War – BallyCross
Jan Trainers (pointers)
1.25 Ling – Jordan Sport (x2 angles) H3 – WON 9/2
My good friends over at The Betting Insiders Club allow me to share one Big Race with you every Saturday- albeit I keep forgetting to do so it appears! There star big race tipster, Dr Nick Hardman, had a decent 2016..
555 bets / 26% win|place SR (think win% sr 12% or so) / 41.6% Return on Investment / +481.36 points / or £4,813.60 to £10 bets.
That is some record. Rather enviable! If you want a big race tipster, you can do a lot worse, and can always take a look HERE>>>
“Anyway, given the horse he has tipped here, I have gone with the following from Nick’s Saturday tips..
Cogry relished the slog in the mud back over hurdles last time and could go in again if reproducing that effort as he stays well and will
enjoy the forecast ground. Barney Dwan has been unlucky on both his chase starts and could gain compensation back over hurdles.
The Fergal O’Brien/ Paddy Brennan partnership are having a fine season.
Cogry @9/1 UP
Barney Dwan @7/1” Fell
That is all for today.
Good luck with your bets