TTP Jumps Notes: 11/01/17 (complete)

qualifiers+ ratings+ Notes (a top rated 40/1 shot…!) + VIDEO
  1. The Ratings Pointers
  2. All Qualifiers against stats pack
  3. Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)
  4. Any general messages/updates etc

 

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none. (albeit check Hereford below)

Top 3 

3.40 T – Magnus Romeo- UP

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

2.40 T – Kublai – PU*

Well it was clear that would happen pre race sadly,no money, drifted back out to 50s. These ones always hard to read- that was an atrocious run in conditions that should have suited much more. They either haven’t found the key to him yet/what his issue is,they simply haven’t been training him that hard in order to get mark down to ‘make sure’ when the money is down- or, he simply has lost all of his ability that he once showed for Hobbs. One to track. My instinct says as some point his price will crumble and he will bolt up at a gaff track somewhere- so one to track for me. This yard have form in that regard. 

Top 3 

none.

***

 

2. All Qualifiers against stats pack

 

TAUNTON

2.40

Kublai (hncp hurdle) UP

3.40

Magnus Romeo (hncp hurdle + micro class) UP

 

***

That is all for ‘official’ qualifiers. Hereford have a meeting and there are stats in my guide from before it closed for three years, 2010/11/12. I post any qualifiers etc but these DO NOT count in official results. They have found a few winners so far, demonstrating that certain trainers remain creatures of habit-well, they all are to an extent. Anyway, do with these qualifiers as you please but they will not be counted in official results. In a couple of seasons time we may be able to approach them with some more confidence.

HEREFORD

2.50 – Brydon Boy (hncp hurdle) H1 (HRB Top Rated,for interest) 2nd 13/2 

 

***

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Well no ‘non ratings’ qualifiers for the day, but some brief observations on the two ratings pointers, that I will be backing as usual.. Kublai  is joint top Rated on geegeez speed- first time that has happened, two horses with the same figure. As such I have counted him as Top Rated and will do with those types moving forward. He has been put in at 40s with Bet365…(66s PP/BV) he gets the tongue tie for the first time, drops in trip and gets what looks like preferred better ground- ground/breathing may be excuses for those recent Ps. Oh and two were over fences,back hurdling here. And it is the third start for this trainer. Mark is dropping. Could be he has just gone at the game. The market can guide with this type from this yard- if that price collapses into 10s<, then hold on to your seats,as that could be a fun few minutes! He will probably be a PU again, but there is excitement,at least the evening before, backing one at that price where you could make a case for why there may be an improved performance. Dr Peter May’s methods (speed ratings)  have clearly picked up something. I generally back win only by at that price I will go EW,in the hope he is well backed.

Magnus Romeo gets first time blinkers I think, and again the hope is that they work and would be the reason for an improved display.

 

Eye-Catchers… well Flugzeug ran his race in second, and with hindsight I clearly wish I backed him EW, going off at 25s. Never mind, hopefully some of you may have. His turn may not be far away, esp in deep ground, as he probably handles it better than most. You can see him winning back here or at somewhere like Plumpton/Fontwell..

Romeo Americo is worth adding to trackers I think- he travelled strongly here, jumping a bit scrappy, but was there abouts turning in and looked like he was going to sweep past them all and win! (well,that is how my mind imagined it!) Sadly he seemed to empty and plug on. Stamina was a doubt beforehand but you can’t go second guessing ratings pointers – well I don’t. They will and have , thrown up winners that can leave you bemused as to their lack of obvious chance on paper. So, it will be interesting if they drop him back to 2m4f or something- again I can see him going close soon enough, at slightly shorter trip.

Less said about the other two the better!

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Such has been the general success of the ratings pointers a blank/losing day always feels a bit odd! But, to manage some expectations, we wont be winning 38 points every week, or 90 points every month! (well, surely we won’t be) and we will back plenty of losers. Profit/fun/enjoyment is the main thing, over time.

Anyway, a VIDEO is below, a scoot around the members club, a discussion of these posts, the ratings pointers etc. And you get to listen to my dulcet tones, and see my face, I mean, what could be better than that! (many,many things, is the answer) 🙂

 

Hopefully you may find it of some use… (make a brew…)

 

***

KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicates a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’  in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier- they are a perfect 3/3 so far…) (no such qualifiers today) 

***

As always if you have any questions post a comment on here or email me, info@racingtoprofit.co.uk

Post complete. No more content added from yesterday.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

31 Responses

  1. There are 2 TJC engaged at Taunton….Harry Fry & Noel Fehily have …1.05 All Kings (100/30 B365) & 1.35 Bags Groove ( 1/2 on B365, Sky)…both non-handicap Hurdles

      1. Oooo how exciting. I mean he does have the profile of a few such gambles of there from memory. Dunn has had a few with no form (excuses when you dig) smashed off under Richie that then romp home. Remember one at Fakenham this season I recall. We shall see. The market will indicate whether we will get a run for money. Goes off ‘short’, single figures,then we may have found one. Of course could also go off 6/1 and very tailed off. Which would probably be the most disappointing scenario!

          1. Yep possible and if that’s the case may well correct through morning up to race time,back to 40s,60s. We shall see. I mean the race has unexposed horses in it from Fry/Nicholls/King/Hobbs/Mulholland and you would think it rare in such circumstances for them all to be beat. Suspect Dunn will get a win at some point with him,prob decent price/well backed . So,one to watch . Had ability for Hobbs.

          2. Seen positive comments elsewhere for Kublai this morning. The consensus is that if not today it is likely to be soon.

          3. yep, doesn’t look like today is the day albeit they have had a couple of 25/1 handicap hurdlers go in when browsing, most winners seem to go off under 6/7s mind,albeit their last handicap hurdle winner was 25/1, so, you never know. If they are setting it up for something mind- by running in soft/over fences/trip too far/no tongue tie (all stuff we can spot) – then they won’t want it to place really,as will be shorter NTO. Albeit these look ideal conditions for him- next three starts could be interesting. If rain stays away.

  2. Hi Josh,
    I’ve been a regular for a while but rarely post as there are far better horse watchers on here. great read. Sometime ago you put up diamond charlie as a horse to follow esp. if running at Kempton. Tomorrow could be the day! 6.45 but wasn’t sure whether over 5f or 6f!
    Pat

      1. Hi Pat, thanks for comment,
        Ah yes, not sure if in my tracker or not, must be somewhere. Yep doesn’t appear he stays 6f, he is 3/4,4p over 5f at Kempton – and he hasn’t raced in such conditions since 17th Feb 16, so 11 months or so. That was a decent 2nd, in C5, off 75. His mark is plummeting. Keep an eye on- I think we will have to have a good go IF he every goes over his fav CD again. Maybe they are setting up a gamble with him.
        Do post if I miss him!
        Cheers Josh

        1. IDEAL COND. ALL-WEATHER / Kempton 5f
          FORM 1,1,1,2
          NOTES This horse is 3/4, 4 places over 5f at Kempton but he hardly ever races in
          those conditions. Very strange. Indeed his last career win was his
          penultimate start over that CD, in Dec 2014. He ran in his ‘ideal
          conditions’ 7 starts ago, coming 2nd, beaten 1.3L. He raced then off OR 75.
          He has had 3 starts on the turf since, from a lower mark. His last AW run
          he ran off 73 at Lingfield, beaten under 1 length. I would be very
          interested next time he runs over 5f at Kempton. May be wheelbarrow
          time! All wins C4 or below RTR 27/05

  3. Josh. Don’t care much for all weather racing. Too many low grade races. However maybe a profit angle somewhere?. I read sometime ago in a racing trade paper that following all weather winners ( except southwell) that run at royal Ascot can pay dividends?

    1. Hi John, I have just spent some quality time in my HRB account having a dig- while in HRB I am unable to look at those that had ever won on the AW at any point in the career,and that are running at RA (well,if you can I am not sure how) but there are plenty of fascinating angles for those that made their first career start on the AW, and that came top3 on that run. From there, a few tasty angles crop up.
      I am blaming you for looking at RA in sodding Jan!! 🙂 But, if I didn’t do it now I would forget and this potential profit may be lost! Will post up some notes asap, and you can all remind me to dig them back out in June!
      Josh

      1. Josh

        without a deep analysis the general figures, excluding Southwell….249w /2089 r….P/L £ – 549.39

        these are horses that started their career with a run at the Ascot meeting, cannot get it down to Royal Ascot on its own but these figures don’t really give encouragement to dig further

        1. Hi Norman, you can focus in using the ‘festival’ button in order to dig further into Royal Ascot- I am talking about horses that had their first career start ever on the All-Weather, came top 3, and then ran at the Royal Ascot meeting at some point. Focus in on those going off 20/1 or shorter and you will see a nice set of ‘starting point’ stats!

  4. Hello,

    No AW bets for me today, I am 0.5pt win on Magnus Romeo, 0.5pt ew Kublai and I really like Brydon Bay he goes really well in heavy, only thing I didn’t like is the trip up 3m2f. He’s top of my rating/speed so that help so it’s 2pt win, fingers crossed he gets the trip.

  5. There is good money to be made on the all weather! I made a nice profit from the low grade racing as well as the higher stuff 🙂

    1. Yes James, I do like the AW I mainly look at handicaps Class 5/4 5f to 7f, because I’m more profitable in these. Been looking in to sectional times on the ATR website hopefully this will be add to my decision making, and horses to follow.

      1. Oh yes, I won’t rubbish it, there certainly is good money to be made- i may add, not by me though! I feel you have to have a certain enthusiasm for whatever racing you look at… I can get very enthusiastic over trainer stats/ratings pointers,and 3m+ handicap chases- sadly, AW racing just doesn’t ‘get me’, personally. Each to their own. I will follow you chaps in!! GL (has been the odd high, among a lot of dross on my part!)

  6. an EW bet 5.45 Kempton TEMPURAN (H1, R2) currently available @ 20/1 (Sky,WH) back from hurdling in the summer, has won at Kempton in the past

  7. Hi Josh.
    Using HRB and GeeGeez ratings you are basically using two speed ratings. It may be better to use a Form rating and a speed rating?
    Rod

    1. Hi Rod, I didn’t think they were speed based, not exclusively so anyway. (thought Chris/HRB, trialed speed ratings on site but ditched them. Maybe I am wrong) I will email Chris as ask him. Either way, the combined approach is working and I am not going to change it- they both throw up different winners etc and they clearly use a different approach. I know, for example, Peter May uses ‘neural networks’ and his are not based on standard times etc etc. I don’t have access to any other ratings at present, and given they are operating at a 27% ,50% place, 50%+ ROI, I think I would be mad to play around with that at the moment. If HRB is just speed (as I said I didn’t think it was but you sound rather confident) in time you may be right, and I am happy to try other ratings and test etc, price allowing. Any thoughts? Suppose there is always the RP rating?
      Josh

      1. I too thought HRB were not speed but form ratings, there do do some speed rating which they don’t show on the actual card it’s on the second to last tap next to V4 tap. I may be wrong, but I think HRB ratings are form based.

          1. Yep, so do I. I have emailed Chris to confirm either way. When you are in the racecard, if you use the rating drop down menu and say select ‘last race’ , you can see all the factors across the top, 10+ of them I think, and none relate to speed. Anyway, I will see what Chris says. They are certainly devised in very different ways, and seem to be working well as a pair so far. Josh

  8. Because everyone loves the all weather so much I will have a look through my book to see if there is anything coming up that’s worth sharing over the next few months 😉

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