FREE DAILY POST: 11/01/17 (complete)

 

TIPS

2.10 Taunton

Tempestatefloresco – 1 point win – 5/1 (Bet354/BV/Sportingbet) 9/2 (general) UP

*run for money to an extent, no complaints there – Ah Calett Mad has got gears on that ground it seems! He won as the ratings suggested he might,and in the end made 13/8 look ok,won impressively. Good to see Rock D run a better race, a strongly run 2m4/5f looks ideal to my eye- but, he may find a race over 3m maybe. On we march.. 

5/1,9/2 feels fair for this unexposed Tizzard chaser who is in decent enough form, and most importantly to my dodgy ‘good ground chase eye’ looks like he will relish what looks a sound surface. It is good, good to soft in places, with no rain forcast. It could dry out a tad leading up to the race also. IF the ground is ‘sticky’ good to soft, then we could be in trouble. He does look to have a low action and you can see why he has been kept to a sound surface.

Two starts ago in ran in what looked a ‘slowly’ run race at Chepstow. He was in the right position there and he ran a decent race, not beaten far, by Sykes. I do like the way he travelled and jumped- straight, fast, accurate. He can jump. Or has done on his last two starts. He went up in class really the next day- or in any case there were some better horses in the race than the one before. It looked a decent little contest. In any case, I think the ground may have gone for him. It was good to soft, soft in places, and looked fairly hard work up the straight. Again he travelled well enough, and jumped well, just could not go with them up the straight. Sykes finished next to him again, so maybe they both ran their race. He carried 10-10 that day, whereas he carried 11-11 here- so some indication of the drop in quality of opposition from that last race.

At 5s I thought worth a go, Tizzard is 3/15,8p in handicap chases here the last 730 days, 4/16,7p the last 5 years in handicap chases over this distance. He should be able to just sit behind the pace and hopefully pick them up and scoot away over the last couple. I don’t think stamina is a problem, he looked to stay at Chepstow and this is an easier 2m7f or so.

At the prices he looked the most interesting for me.

Of the rest?

Well Calett Mad is short enough, simply on the ground issue I think- provided it is good, and similar to that Ludlow race. He is ‘double’ top rated on both HRB and Geegeez and if this were soft I would be leaving the race, as that both enhances his chances, and would do for the selection, and i don’t want to be on anything else. He could hack up here- I am going with the theory that he will fail to pick up in the last 2f on this ground, and something with a faster turn of gear,who really lets down on it,will swoop past. Hopefully the selection! If I have that wrong,he may take this, but you don’t want ground questions for me with 13/8 shots. Nige is 0/4,0p in handicap chases here last 730 days, 1/11 in 5 years. 2/38 all runners, 5 years. Enough there to take him on with for me.

Red Devils lads looks out of sorts, has patchy form, is unreliable, and may want it softer over fences. The ability is there somewhere, but no easy lead here I don’t think. Qualando is unexposed, so dangerous, and he has some quality about him. The trip is the unknown, he is doing something differently, and the last day looked like possibly worth a crack. If he stays, he goes close. But at 3s, I was happy to leave/take on, on that basis. Blinkers are back on also. If he is going to stay this trip, it may be in this level of race, in a fairly small field, at a track like this on good ground, flat finish etc. Not impossible. His hurdle class may see him go a long way in this but I don’t like the price.

Troika Steppes owes me and members nothing having won at 25s for the TTP stats earlier in the season,and then ran a cracker NTO. I don’t think it is a shock his winning form has been at Cheltenham and Leicester- two tracks with very stiff climbs to the line. He is a big galloper who tries to get in front, stretch them, and plod them into submission. I may have him wrong but he wont get an easy lead here I don’t think,and something may have too many gears for him near the end, on this flat enough track. He also has his last experience to get out of his mind- I am not convinced he liked the GN fences and in any case could never get a position. A line can be put through that. A bold run wouldn’t shock, and he may place, but I doubt his finishing kick- well I don’t think he has one on what I have seen, and in this, he may need to pick up speed at some point.

Tindaro- well I doubt he stays this trip and has never really raced over this far. I don’t like asking 10 year olds to do something new. In any case he could be outclassed here- plenty of unexposed types and I can’t see him beating them.

That leaves Roc D’Apsis- who is a horse that raises the question of ‘when does a horse stay’- Does he stay 3m? I am yet to be convinced but based on that Kempton run many think he does. He has yet to prove it. BUT, at some point may drop down to such a level, in a race run in a certain way, whereby he doesn’t need to ‘truly stay’, if that makes sense. Maybe this is such a race. But, in any case, he does look out of sorts and just on recent form has a few questions. He has gone well after similar breaks before and it isn’t impossible. I think there are potentially better chasers in here though also, and younger legs. And neither of the main two jocks are here to ride him. Taunton is classed as ‘undulating’ on HRB, and he is 0/5,0p in handicap chases on such a surface. That may mean sod all, albeit he is 3/9,6p on what they class as ‘flat’. So, we shall see. There is a bit of money around, maybe they have tinkered with something in the break- found a problem and fixed it. He certainly hasn’t shown enough on the last two starts to be confident, and I will leave him.

PACE- well Tindaro can go at it- depends whether they ride him to get the trip, or just blast out knowing he isn’t going to compete today. Troika can also try and lead,as can Red Devil Lads- so nothing should be able to boss this from the front. The selection usually races up there and should sit just behind, maybe alongside the fav. No excuses. This is his first time going RH over fences- but there was nothing in either Chepstow run which suggests that is a problem, albeit until they try you never really know. Should be fine. We will know early if he doesn’t like going this way!

Good luck if you follow, or with whatever you fancy.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

Harry Fry Mares (10/1< guide)

3.50 H – Lamanver Odyssey 2nd 5/2

 

**

I have just recorded the below video for Members, talking through the club, how to approach it, the results etc… You may find it of some interest, maybe…

 

That will be all for today

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

36 Comments

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  • I think you have a system knocking around for tom george handicap chases in jan/feb,Rock D Apsis runs in the 2.10,Dont Know if he qualifies under that criteria,but is a bit of value at 10/1BV,this might be more his level

    gearoid180468 2 months ago Reply


    • Yea not sure if I deleted that one or not, will have a look. Not sure if I did and don’t think it came up. I am yet to be convinced he stays 3m. Wonder if getting his mark down before hacking up over 2m4f/5 maybe. Not sure. Will have a look at race properly in morning. He, or something else, may stand out.

      Josh 2 months ago Reply


    • Rock D Apsis can win,but i am not sure,nothing above 30/1or me ,so 2.10 TINDARO 20/1 ew will be higher on exchange 2.40 Taunton Winning Spark 11/1
      and twice CD winner and Kublai ew
      2.50 Her Courtown Oscar 10/1 will be higher,he had wns after PU,class horse and Money Maid 3:20 4/1 ,will be above 5 on exchange,

      Pab 2 months ago Reply


      • nice mention for the winner Courtown Oscar @ 8/1…well done….more winnings to follow

        Norman 2 months ago Reply


        • Be honest i did dutching,3miles on heavy and 1/2 length
          Grandiosa second same distance
          next Courtown Oscar will goes chasing and PU but maybe he will appear at Chelt,class horse he is
          Sennockian Star last at Kempton may run well,jock is ok
          and Ershaad in opener,but he is short

          Pab 2 months ago Reply


          • Sharp Response who came 3rd in that hurdle race 2 starts ago is certainly worth tracking given what Oscar did today and Ami Debois and Desert Cry before him. Would probably want to return to class 3 company though not that we know where he finished LTO givent he fog.

            nickmazur 2 months ago Reply


  • He will definitely stay the distance Josh,problem is 3 or 4 might stay it quicker,Paddy has been thrown a scrap from Tom in 3.50 Hereford,hasnt fared too badly on these,Artic Lady at 14/1 could outrun its odds

    gearoid180468 2 months ago Reply


    • Yep, interesting point. I had this discussion with someone on twitter. I suppose strong staying 2m4/5f chasers may always find an opening somewhere over 3m whereby the pace they ‘stay’ at, would be enough to win, for sure. Today may be that day for him,albeit it should be strongly run so he will need to get the trip I think. We shall see, interesting he is being backed, I wonder if they found an issue, wind or back or something, and have got him back bouncing. Unless, he has just come into his own at home again.

      Josh 2 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    A 3rd place finish for Vivat Rex at Southwell looked promising on the turn in but ultimately not good enough on the day…..Onwards to tomorrow and a few to go at

    2.00 Newcastle – Genres 3.0 best odds generally available
    Champs Elysees 7 runs, 3 wins, 4 places 42.86% win SR 57.14% place SR

    Staking £18.12 – 2% of £905.71

    2.30 Newcastle – Sugarloaf Mountain 67.00 best odds generally available
    Fastnet Rock 8 runs, 4 wins, 6 places 50% win SR, 75% place SR

    2.30 Newcastle – Medici Man 101.00 best odds Bet365/Betvic/Paddy/Betbright
    Medicean 5 runs, 3 wins, 3 places 60.00% win SR, 60.00% place SR

    Split staking £8.88 on both (Working on worse case scenario that Genres loses)

    5.15 Kempton – Pepita 3.0 Best Odds Betvic/Bet365
    Sir Prancelot 6 runs, 3 wins, 5 places 50% win SR 83.33% place SR
    (On this standard to slow surface 5 runs, 3 wins, 5 places)

    Staking £17.40 again based on worst case scenario that all previous have lost.

    So far there has been 8 selections with 4 hitting the frame but just the 1 winner hopefully a correction tomorrow and more in the winners column

    Good luck with all your selections

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 2 months ago Reply


    • Cheers Steve, hadn’t got round to looking at Fastnet Rock’s for Newcastle. Chucked a couple of quid at Sugarloaf Mountain at 150.0 on Betfair…be rude not to, as they say.
      Paul

      blueboy199 2 months ago Reply


      • Steve, if your Stallion Picks continue to pick selections like today’s it will surly make good profits if people stick with it. Looking at the Sire’s under more specific conditions produces some amazing strike rates. Based on which the horses in the 2:30 should be nothing like their current odds!
        Unfortunately all bar Genres have bad draws. Also very strange that the top trainer started Sugar Loaf Mountain at 16f a distance way beyond what most Fastnet Rocks want and against hurdles types. Yet a distance the trainer excels at! 2 prices I feel are 2 short and 2 too long, but will give it ago.
        Great work.

        Gary 2 months ago Reply


        • Hi Gary

          Thanks for the comments, Yes I thought Sugarloaf looked interesting coming from O’Brien to Ellison after only 2 runs and been thrown straight into the sires favourable conditions I took the early 66/1 Paul done well on at 150/1 got a good run.

          Cheers
          Steve

          Steve Wiseman 2 months ago Reply


      • Hi Paul

        Just back in top odds there mate I think he went off around 42.00 hope you had some on the place very unlucky with Grandioso too haven’t seen the race but by all accounts just run out of it, Would have made a very pleasant EW double

        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 2 months ago Reply


    • Hope you had a nice EW tickle on him at those odds Steve! Decent run that.

      Josh 2 months ago Reply


      • Hi Josh

        Yes I did have a £10.00 on at 19’s place only market so was a good return did look interesting coming from 2 maiden races in Ireland on turf and Ellison putting him straight on the Tapeta over a favourable trip

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 2 months ago Reply


  • Steve Flook – profitable to sp in hunter chases, 112 22 49 +26pts – has Grandioso tomorrow at Taunton (310). I’ve just had a small punt at 25.4 on the exchanges. Can’t decide whether to put more on at the price or wait to see if he drifts further than he is doing already. Hasn’t won when off for more than 60 days, but 3/12 in March when last returning from a break respectable enough. Maybe the jockey and the distance are issues but it seems a big price. Think I’ll sleep on it and see what the market says in the morning.
    Paul

    blueboy199 2 months ago Reply


    • Yep,hunter chases probably ripe for a bit of trainer research. Will have a play around with HRB at some point. Good luck with him.

      Josh 2 months ago Reply


    • Flook had a good record a couple of years ago with HCs but failed to make the transition to NH rules racing and big prices have been known.
      Grandioso looks well placed and is well backed on BF 0530 now 21; 18/1 B365

      chrisrees 2 months ago Reply


      • Paul. Any particular reason you picked Grandiso a horse that struggles to get 3 miles over Victor Leudorum a horse that likes the distance and when last seen retained his ability joining a trainer that as you say has a decent record in hunter chases?

        Gary 2 months ago Reply


        • Missed him in my tracker, Gary. It’s a fantastic resource on Geegeez, but it can be a pain in the arse going through the trainer / sire selections manually. Will go in on VL as well…you know what’ll happen if I don’t. Thanks for pointing out.
          Paul

          blueboy199 2 months ago Reply


  • TAUNTON 3.10

    Though 16 runners only paying 3 places.
    Conclusion after a couple of hours; lots of horses with uninterpretable form; taking a sensible price and based on G-S/S form and distance experience,
    1. Bound for Glory 22/1 (Jockey 17%, Trainer 14%, horse best form G-S)
    2, Richmond 28/1 (2nd last year, Heavy, same jockey and 8 lbs less today)
    Real Milan & Barel of Laughs for the Trifecta/Tricast

    Clavis 2 months ago Reply


  • 310T.grandioso not won further than 2m.5f. only twice run at 3m. beat 67l.&34l.
    Flooks other runner victor leudorum (firstrun for yard) would interest me more. Have had 40/1 e.w.Foynes Island Repeat ofChelt.form behind big fella thanks should see him thereabouts

    pete.sharp 2 months ago Reply


    • …but the first of those runs was a G3 and the second was when he was patently ‘wrong’.
      The facts are that he has stayed on well over 21f twice in the mud, Ascot and heavy the 2nd time. This is not 3 miles but an easy 23 furlongs on goodish ground, so he may well stay, off a hold up ride, for his first win over a longer distance.

      chrisrees 2 months ago Reply


      • Aaaaaaaarrrggghhh!

        chrisrees 2 months ago Reply


        • Think I can almost feel that anguish! Unlucky.

          Josh 2 months ago Reply


  • I’m on Goal in the 15:40 at Taunton and Sir Will in the 14:50 at Hereford. Have both been backed this morning.

    Nick Mazur 2 months ago Reply


    • Oh forgot to say I don’t have any money on (so just bound to win) but Bishop of Bling has an e/w chance in the 13:50 at Hereford. Obviously if Tony Martin wants his to win than they’re all going for 2nd.

      Nick Mazur 2 months ago Reply


    • Nice 7/1 winner there Nick.Much appreciated & thanks again.

      Allan 2 months ago Reply


      • Thanks. Feel slightly less guilty now after I didn’t post on here on the day he won LTO at a big price(well was a big price before the morning gamble).

        nickmazur 2 months ago Reply


  • Tempestatefloresco good tip

    Pab 2 months ago Reply


    • Well, we shall see! A bit unsteady at 6s, but i would have backed him at that price this morning obviously. Should travel well enough into it, will see if anything better in closing stages.

      Josh 2 months ago Reply


  • I did not get infor on the Gary Moore winner yesterday! I hear that it was well backed and the stable are saying that it was unexpected? I have not heard anything today either.

    It will be interesting to see how Rayvin Black goes today? I hear he jumps well and will like the ground.

    I have had a few quid on Josh’s tip today.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 2 months ago Reply


  • Sugarloaf Mountain 3rd at 150.0, Grandioso three quarter length 2nd at 25.0 (BSP 44.7) after 3 miles. It’s a tough old game sometimes.
    Paul

    blueboy199 2 months ago Reply


    • That is just awful luck- Grandioso esp, so close. Sickening, best not sugar coat that! Top picking mind, hope you had a nice EW wedge on. Well done.

      Josh 2 months ago Reply


  • Two that could be worth a punt at kempton tonight are 6.45 ocean legend and 7.15 monsuier paddy for Tony carrol.

    James b 2 months ago Reply


  • One more of interest this evening at Kempton is the 12yo Ocean Legend almost certainly on the downgrade but now running off his lowest ever mark of 58 and I still think he has wins in him and he has won at this venue 11 times. What makes him of interest this evening is that he is 1 out of 1 over 6F on this standard to slow surface and Luke Morris takes the ride, Last time Luke was on him was these exact same conditions and he won off 74 . Drawn well in 5 I can see him going close and looks a fair EW bet…..

    6.45 Kempton – Ocean Legend 24.0 Betfair Exchange / 5.4 place market 1Pt EW

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 2 months ago Reply


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