Tempestatefloresco – 1 point win – 5/1 (Bet354/BV/Sportingbet) 9/2 (general) UP
*run for money to an extent, no complaints there – Ah Calett Mad has got gears on that ground it seems! He won as the ratings suggested he might,and in the end made 13/8 look ok,won impressively. Good to see Rock D run a better race, a strongly run 2m4/5f looks ideal to my eye- but, he may find a race over 3m maybe. On we march..
5/1,9/2 feels fair for this unexposed Tizzard chaser who is in decent enough form, and most importantly to my dodgy ‘good ground chase eye’ looks like he will relish what looks a sound surface. It is good, good to soft in places, with no rain forcast. It could dry out a tad leading up to the race also. IF the ground is ‘sticky’ good to soft, then we could be in trouble. He does look to have a low action and you can see why he has been kept to a sound surface.
Two starts ago in ran in what looked a ‘slowly’ run race at Chepstow. He was in the right position there and he ran a decent race, not beaten far, by Sykes. I do like the way he travelled and jumped- straight, fast, accurate. He can jump. Or has done on his last two starts. He went up in class really the next day- or in any case there were some better horses in the race than the one before. It looked a decent little contest. In any case, I think the ground may have gone for him. It was good to soft, soft in places, and looked fairly hard work up the straight. Again he travelled well enough, and jumped well, just could not go with them up the straight. Sykes finished next to him again, so maybe they both ran their race. He carried 10-10 that day, whereas he carried 11-11 here- so some indication of the drop in quality of opposition from that last race.
At 5s I thought worth a go, Tizzard is 3/15,8p in handicap chases here the last 730 days, 4/16,7p the last 5 years in handicap chases over this distance. He should be able to just sit behind the pace and hopefully pick them up and scoot away over the last couple. I don’t think stamina is a problem, he looked to stay at Chepstow and this is an easier 2m7f or so.
At the prices he looked the most interesting for me.
Of the rest?
Well Calett Mad is short enough, simply on the ground issue I think- provided it is good, and similar to that Ludlow race. He is ‘double’ top rated on both HRB and Geegeez and if this were soft I would be leaving the race, as that both enhances his chances, and would do for the selection, and i don’t want to be on anything else. He could hack up here- I am going with the theory that he will fail to pick up in the last 2f on this ground, and something with a faster turn of gear,who really lets down on it,will swoop past. Hopefully the selection! If I have that wrong,he may take this, but you don’t want ground questions for me with 13/8 shots. Nige is 0/4,0p in handicap chases here last 730 days, 1/11 in 5 years. 2/38 all runners, 5 years. Enough there to take him on with for me.
Red Devils lads looks out of sorts, has patchy form, is unreliable, and may want it softer over fences. The ability is there somewhere, but no easy lead here I don’t think. Qualando is unexposed, so dangerous, and he has some quality about him. The trip is the unknown, he is doing something differently, and the last day looked like possibly worth a crack. If he stays, he goes close. But at 3s, I was happy to leave/take on, on that basis. Blinkers are back on also. If he is going to stay this trip, it may be in this level of race, in a fairly small field, at a track like this on good ground, flat finish etc. Not impossible. His hurdle class may see him go a long way in this but I don’t like the price.
Troika Steppes owes me and members nothing having won at 25s for the TTP stats earlier in the season,and then ran a cracker NTO. I don’t think it is a shock his winning form has been at Cheltenham and Leicester- two tracks with very stiff climbs to the line. He is a big galloper who tries to get in front, stretch them, and plod them into submission. I may have him wrong but he wont get an easy lead here I don’t think,and something may have too many gears for him near the end, on this flat enough track. He also has his last experience to get out of his mind- I am not convinced he liked the GN fences and in any case could never get a position. A line can be put through that. A bold run wouldn’t shock, and he may place, but I doubt his finishing kick- well I don’t think he has one on what I have seen, and in this, he may need to pick up speed at some point.
Tindaro- well I doubt he stays this trip and has never really raced over this far. I don’t like asking 10 year olds to do something new. In any case he could be outclassed here- plenty of unexposed types and I can’t see him beating them.
That leaves Roc D’Apsis- who is a horse that raises the question of ‘when does a horse stay’- Does he stay 3m? I am yet to be convinced but based on that Kempton run many think he does. He has yet to prove it. BUT, at some point may drop down to such a level, in a race run in a certain way, whereby he doesn’t need to ‘truly stay’, if that makes sense. Maybe this is such a race. But, in any case, he does look out of sorts and just on recent form has a few questions. He has gone well after similar breaks before and it isn’t impossible. I think there are potentially better chasers in here though also, and younger legs. And neither of the main two jocks are here to ride him. Taunton is classed as ‘undulating’ on HRB, and he is 0/5,0p in handicap chases on such a surface. That may mean sod all, albeit he is 3/9,6p on what they class as ‘flat’. So, we shall see. There is a bit of money around, maybe they have tinkered with something in the break- found a problem and fixed it. He certainly hasn’t shown enough on the last two starts to be confident, and I will leave him.
PACE- well Tindaro can go at it- depends whether they ride him to get the trip, or just blast out knowing he isn’t going to compete today. Troika can also try and lead,as can Red Devil Lads- so nothing should be able to boss this from the front. The selection usually races up there and should sit just behind, maybe alongside the fav. No excuses. This is his first time going RH over fences- but there was nothing in either Chepstow run which suggests that is a problem, albeit until they try you never really know. Should be fine. We will know early if he doesn’t like going this way!
Good luck if you follow, or with whatever you fancy.
Harry Fry Mares (10/1< guide)
3.50 H – Lamanver Odyssey 2nd 5/2
I have just recorded the below video for Members, talking through the club, how to approach it, the results etc… You may find it of some interest, maybe…
That will be all for today