TTP Jumps Notes: 10/01/17 (complete)

Qualifiers + All ratings + Messages/updates + Note
  1. The Ratings Pointers
  2. All Qualifiers against stats pack
  3. Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)
  4. Any general messages/updates etc

 

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

2.30 Ling – Steel City– UP

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

2.00 Ling – Golanova – UP

3.30 Ling – Romeo Americo – UP

Top 3 

2.30 Ling- Steel CityUP

 

**

2.All Qualifiers (against stats pack)

 

LINGFIELD

2.00

Golanova (hncp chase) UP

2.30

Steel City (all hncps) UP

3.30

Romeo Americo (all hncps) UP

Flugzeug (all hncps) 2nd 25/1

 

***

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Flugzeug... well, I have had a nibble in truth, 1/2 point on at 16s (£5 for me at moment) (if that is of any interest…this is not a ‘tip’,just my subjective views) mainly because having looked at his form I wouldn’t be shocked were he to win, and as such, at that price, I will ‘trust the stats’ on this one- He us 3/13,5p in his career in handicap hurdles, 3/10,5p C5,3/6,4p OR under 90, and he has won at 33/1- so the market may not be much help. He doesn’t look a chaser and if they stick to hurdles you can see him winning something this season, somewhere. One to track, as it may well be at a price. He is getting well handicapped again in this sphere. Jockey bookings suggest they prefer Romeo Americo today, so we shall see. Today may not be the day, he may need a few runs back over hurdles before striking, but he has the ability at this level and looked interesting enough to me.

(remember in this bit I will try and highlight any horses I want to back that are not in the ‘ratings pointers’ but are on the ‘all qualifiers’ list. The stats do find massive priced winners – 20/1,20/1,25/1,33/1,50/1 – (only 1 of those was a ‘ratings pointer horse’) so, it may pay to always glance at the bigger priced ones, we will land on a few over time with any luck. If backing ‘all qualifiers’ systematically (no longer advised) these big price winners tend to pay for a lot of losers. But, hopefully, by focusing on the ‘ratings pointers’ and dabbling on big priced ones not in that list, we may do even better!

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

A) RESULTS UPDATE: Updated Results for Ratings Pointers HERE>>>

I will update total results for all qualifiers at some point this week, for week end 15.

B) Welcome Note: If you have never read the original welcome note you can do so HERE>>>

ADVISED STRATEGY: That note above really needs updating but I think I am now comfortable advising the following, as the ‘way forward’ and as a ‘minium’

  • Back All ‘Ratings Pointers’ at least once. I record results to 1 point win and always advise that you track your own results, esp if liking to bet EW. I think a 27% win strike rate allows you to back win only with some confidence, albeit clearly for 12/1, or 16/1, or 20/1+ shots you may prefer EW betting. I personally always make sure I have one point on the win side of any bet in the ratings pointers, but that is just me.
  • Do look through those results above and have a think about what approach you may wish to take. I back all ratings qualifiers,including twice, if they appear twice, 1 point on the lot. That is the +90 point figure in those results above.
  • Looking at the TOP RATED qualifiers, a case is mounting to ‘double stake’ on Top Rated qualifiers as well I think, but, that is early days still with those. You should certainly be backing all Top Rated qualifiers I think!
  • IF you only want 1 or 2 bets per day, you could just back the TOP RATED runners- and if you had 2 points on each of those,as opposed to 1 point on all ratings qualifiers, you would have a tad more profit actually. As an example.
  • All Other Qualifiers- I DO NOT back All Qualifiers (section 2 above) systematically. Mine, and our collective wisdom maybe, is to try and highlight those big priced horses NOT in the ratings pointers, that may be worth following. The odd such monster has, and will, win from time to time. Leaving 33/1 and 50/1 shots unbacked, is unpleasant! But, in truth, the ratings pointers as stand alone are doing just fine, and are way outperforming just backing ‘all qualifiers’.

 

C) Remember ALL MEMBERS Content is delivered via the blog. This IS NOT an email service. When you read ‘COMPLETE’ in the post heading above, you know there is no more content to be added. I ‘complete’ a post on the morning of racing,usually by 1oam. That just allows me time in case I have made an error and missed a qualifier! (that has happened 3 times in 15 weeks so far) Usually everything you need is up the evening before.

If that is as clear as mud, then do say so!

***

***

KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicates a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’ (eg STEEL CITY)  in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier- they are a perfect 3/3 so far…) (no such double top rated qualifiers today) 

**

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

    1. Hi John, no problem. Every comment is always read, if you ask a question you always get a reply and if you are a first time commenter you also always get a reply. I may not be able to control the horses, but I can control that side of things- and the engagement is all part of the fun- no excuse for shoddy ‘customer service’ for want of a better phrase.
      Yep we shall see what the future holds! With any luck we have found our approach for the jumps, with slight tweaks to the overall stats pack for next winter maybe.
      Then just a case of how to approach the flat and summer jumps- I personally cannot get excited about All-Weather racing and doubt I will ever dedicate much time to that in the Members posts, but you never know!

      Josh

  1. Hi Josh. I joined a few months back and paper traded for a while before joining in. I found it difficult mentally with the number of selections and many multiple selection races. The introduction of the ratings filter has made things a lot more manageable. I started backing these on boxing day (sadly) but am now back in front.I am playing 1pt win on H1 and G1 ratings, .5pt on H2/H2 and G2/G3. I also back twice if it appears in the ratings more than once. Confident that this is the way forward for me

    1. Hi Edward, thanks for comment- sounds like you too the advised approach, albeit started properly one day too soon haha- god, what an awful day that was. I didn’t enjoy any aspect of my festive punting I don’t think. Members Posts didn’t deliver, my tips were awful. Crappy all round! Maybe we should take Boxing Day off next year! 🙂
      But, in truth, given how they had performed from 9th to 23rd, they were due a dip/natural correction – annoying that came on first day of Xmas offer, and first day for you. But, hopefully the 38 points or so in the last week has cushioned that blow somewhat! And, in the context of having a 100 point bank say, everything was manageable.

      I agree with your general points there- in truth I was finding the ‘all qualifiers’ too stressful, too many bets for me, and my brain couldn’t cope- I wanted to shortlist, but it was hard to do it from cold really. Thankfully I had the ratings idea! And so far, so good.

      Glad to read you have settled on an approach that works for you. Sounds good to me. I would advise having something on all ratings pointers given the stats start, they are just profitable. But can certainly see why you would ‘go big’ on the Top Rated as a focus point.

      Let us know how you get on periodically,
      Josh

      1. I intend backing all ratings selections. I wouldnt know where to start if making exclusions and certainly would have left the 18/1 shot on saturday, which seems to defeat the object

        1. Indeed, just trust the ratings/stats I think! We can use our subjective judgement on others not in the pointers, and indeed your own judgement on the staking, but backing everything has been rather solid! Best not over-think it- those ratings are more advanced than us, to be blunt, and best not to question them too much. Clearly 50% or so finish out the frame so we dont get a run for our money every-time, and there will be blips,but over time, fingers crossed, we should do just fine.
          Josh

  2. Hi Josh

    big word being used this morning….I am asking for “clarification”….pretty please…. regarding (a) the various horses listed by you on the FREE page with your rec staking, that’s if they get backed at all

    and (b).you have a results link on the FREE page about results……your words ” All Qualifiers (backed twice if qual against both ratings)…..then you have ….”All Qualifiers ( backed just ONCE, even if qual against both ratings)

    can you further explain what you mean, I am not understanding it……would it not be better if you “bold black typed” your actual betting suggestions at the bottom of your analysis, you do seem to have to keep explaining what your intentions and bets are

    1. Hi Norman,

      Always happy to clarify- it is straight forward once you get your head around it, but appreciate initially it may be confusing!

      So, we are talking about The Ratings Pointers… that is what those results are above.

      And all of that relates to these Members Posts, NOT the Free Posts (there is a results tab above for everything,albeit I do need to update them from recent weeks/last month+)

      So, in the Members Posts…

      All Qualifiers (backed twice) that is STEEL CITY above, as an example. He appears on the ratings pointers twice, once in HRB, and once in Geegeez. So, those results cover if you backed him twice, because he appears twice.

      But, I have also recorded results for All Qualifiers, just backed ONCE… for those who may not wish to have as many bets and as another way of highlighting the results … so in that example, with STEEL CITY, they would only back him once, even though he appears on each ratings set!

      That is clear in my mind, but then again I can be awful at explaining things with clarity. Maybe I need another coffee.

      The Members Posts, as I discussed with Al, ARE NOT a tipping service. I have told you what I do – i back all ratings pointers horses to 1 point as a minimum, inc multiple times- so I have £20 on STEEL CITY.

      I also now tend to have more on Top Rated horses, given their results- and actually, at present, have 1.5 points, or £15 on each of those two top rated horses.

      But, that is irrelevant. You judge it against a) the results as I record them above and B) how you wish to engage with it. (and any such results you keep for yourself)

      You have seen Keith comment yesterday- he likes playing with small money multiple bets, and has done well, had some fun.

      ‘Danegold’ above, has ‘his’ own approach as he has set out, having looked at the results, paper traded, knowing his own liking for no. bets etc- and that is what he has gone with.

      As I have said in that STRATEGY note above, as a minimum I would have something, 1 point maybe, on all ratings pointers horses. The stats suggest that isn’t a bad starting place.

      After that, you do as you please! Using the info on results etc as you see fit.

      The Free Posts…

      Tips I back to £20 per points. A lot of the proven micro angles, I have £10 per point on, some I am tracking,esp the Live Test ones, others I may use as a starting point or ignore.

      It is information at the end of the day. That is the main crux of my whole approach. Quality information with any luck. What you do with it, how you engage, is up to you.

      With these Members Posts I have tried to be as clear as I can. Not sure what else I can say now really! Apart from finding different/clearer ways to say it!

      Josh

  3. hi josh, if STEEL CITY wins today, hope it does got £20 win @ 5, that will be 4/4 for double top, then will start backing double tops @ £1 win accas to 6.

    1. Ahhh Noooooo…

      he IS NOT DOUBLE TOP… Malc, he isn’t top rated on either is he?

      He qualifies against both, but he isn’t double top rated, not top rated on either, just Top 3 (which in effect is 2nd or 3rd rated) Maybe that needs further clarification, I am useless.

      I have 2 points because he simply qualifies twice.

      The results for those ‘Bold’ qualifiers are the 4th in the list in the results page- if you were to ONLY back all qualifiers that qualified against both sets of ratings (inc top rated but not exclusively)

      No doubt I am in the process of confusing things more…

      1. STEEL CITY….ridden by same 10lb claimer as FLUQZEUQ….3 winners ridden in 3 years from 54 rides…..I might have a much different opinion after race but for now, my small bet is on and nothing more

        on the other hand, if it was young Edmunds riding, who rides SHOWBOATING 2.20 Southwell @ 20/1…my staking would be a lot more

          1. Well done, nice EW run/return. I wont blame the young jockey on Steel City there- he just wasn’t very good, has patchy record on ground like that,but run ok on soft, maybe just simply didn’t handle whatever it was today ‘sticky bog’ maybe!
            Not 100% sure Romeo Americo stays that trip but we shall see, my money is down.

          2. well, HRB doesn’t give Romeo Americo much of a chance….my ratings have it @ R7….so it’s down to the Trainer to work some magic

  4. NOTE: I WILL RECORD A SCREEN SHOT VIDEO either today or tomorrow. Maybe if I speak to the numbers, results etc, that will help. Knowing my luck that will confuse things further but I will give it a go.
    albeit any further clarification questions in the meantime, fire away…
    Josh

  5. Hope this doesn’t confuse things further but would this make it easier? Rather than split the ratings by HRB and GG just have Top Rated and Top 3. Initials can added after the horse (although if it qualifies does it matter which site it came from?) and bold would signify the horse qualifies from both HRB and GG.

    Top Rated
    2.00 Ling – Golanova GG
    3.30 Ling – Romeo Americo GG
    Top 3
    2.30 Ling- Steel City in bold to signify qualifies on both

    1. Thanks Shane. I think at this stage such a ‘dramatic’ change wouldn’t help things – I prefer keeping them separate and it can help me when glancing at results to see how they may be doing as ratings sets- they are pretty neck and neck at the moment I think, but that may change.
      The fact you can decipher would indicate we are ok.

      It is just the use of ‘bold’ black, to indicate a double qualifier, and ‘bold’ red, to indicate a double Top Rated qualifier.

      It should be ok once you get used to it! Hopefully.

  6. Hi Josh
    Thanks for bringing the rating pointers into play ( Good idea from yourself)
    The way I’ve been playing them is
    2pts on double top rated (BOLD)
    1pt on top rated either
    1/2 pt on G/2&3 also H/2&3
    Backing selections once only
    Only small stakes but great fun, been taking money off the bookies, give some back but still in profit after best part of 12 months
    Thanks
    Bill

    1. Hi Bill,
      Thanks for this, always interested to read the approach of Members and given the results to date that all seems rather sensible and is working for you,
      To clarify I have now made ‘double top rated’ bold in RED, and those are 3/3 now, and I assume the ones you have been double staking. No such ‘doble top rated’ qualifiers today.
      As long as we take more off the bookies than we give to them, in the long run, that is the main thing! And it is great fun cheering home winners, esp when a double figure price.
      Josh

  7. The impressive results continue! Purely in ROI terms, I guess just backing the top rated qualifiers is the most profitable move – a frightening 88% ROI for them compared to a still staggering 51% for the top 3 rated qualifiers.

    I think the way forward has to be betting double stakes or more on the top rated qualifiers doesn’t it?

    I’d be interested to see the results at BSP as well. I suspect the selections so far would have managed good returns using the exchange as well, given that Josh is very fair with the prices he records at and there have been a couple of winners at big prices where BSP was considerably higher than the recorded price.

  8. Firstly on Gary Moore watch, the only runner that they seem to face is Yukon Delta, 4.00 LP. Some 7/1 about. Keep stakes low though as the stable is still not firing as it should be.

    My only other fancy I’d Men United 12.45 Southwell.

    Not much going on at present.

    1. Yep they are still in and out, Golanova looks unloved at 20s now, from 12s, so I won’t be getting too excited on that front! And, the rest seem a bit weak also, and arguably have questions on paper- but, the ratings take away that deliberation, as there would be plenty of winners left unbacked with similar thought processes!
      Good luck,
      Josh

  9. Hey Josh and all

    I’ve 2 today to which are from my ratings and are showing value, 14:10 Geraldine (my odds 3/1 jf) and I’ve got 12’s Coral (Each way) just looking now she’s 10’s general. 14:40 Savannah Beau (my odds 4/1 2f) I’ve taken 13/2 with BFSP (Win Bet), just looking you can still can that.

    That my 2p for now.

    Good luck with what ever you are betting on today, and Josh loving the pointers making me a nice profit so far.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.