- The Ratings Pointers
- All Qualifiers against stats pack
- Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)
- Any general messages/updates etc
1.The Ratings Pointers
2.30 Ling – Steel City– UP
2.00 Ling – Golanova – UP
3.30 Ling – Romeo Americo – UP
2.30 Ling- Steel CityUP
2.All Qualifiers (against stats pack)
Golanova (hncp chase) UP
Steel City (all hncps) UP
Romeo Americo (all hncps) UP
Flugzeug (all hncps) 2nd 25/1
3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)
Flugzeug... well, I have had a nibble in truth, 1/2 point on at 16s (£5 for me at moment) (if that is of any interest…this is not a ‘tip’,just my subjective views) mainly because having looked at his form I wouldn’t be shocked were he to win, and as such, at that price, I will ‘trust the stats’ on this one- He us 3/13,5p in his career in handicap hurdles, 3/10,5p C5,3/6,4p OR under 90, and he has won at 33/1- so the market may not be much help. He doesn’t look a chaser and if they stick to hurdles you can see him winning something this season, somewhere. One to track, as it may well be at a price. He is getting well handicapped again in this sphere. Jockey bookings suggest they prefer Romeo Americo today, so we shall see. Today may not be the day, he may need a few runs back over hurdles before striking, but he has the ability at this level and looked interesting enough to me.
(remember in this bit I will try and highlight any horses I want to back that are not in the ‘ratings pointers’ but are on the ‘all qualifiers’ list. The stats do find massive priced winners – 20/1,20/1,25/1,33/1,50/1 – (only 1 of those was a ‘ratings pointer horse’) so, it may pay to always glance at the bigger priced ones, we will land on a few over time with any luck. If backing ‘all qualifiers’ systematically (no longer advised) these big price winners tend to pay for a lot of losers. But, hopefully, by focusing on the ‘ratings pointers’ and dabbling on big priced ones not in that list, we may do even better!
4.Any general messages/updates etc
A) RESULTS UPDATE: Updated Results for Ratings Pointers HERE>>>
I will update total results for all qualifiers at some point this week, for week end 15.
B) Welcome Note: If you have never read the original welcome note you can do so HERE>>>
ADVISED STRATEGY: That note above really needs updating but I think I am now comfortable advising the following, as the ‘way forward’ and as a ‘minium’
- Back All ‘Ratings Pointers’ at least once. I record results to 1 point win and always advise that you track your own results, esp if liking to bet EW. I think a 27% win strike rate allows you to back win only with some confidence, albeit clearly for 12/1, or 16/1, or 20/1+ shots you may prefer EW betting. I personally always make sure I have one point on the win side of any bet in the ratings pointers, but that is just me.
- Do look through those results above and have a think about what approach you may wish to take. I back all ratings qualifiers,including twice, if they appear twice, 1 point on the lot. That is the +90 point figure in those results above.
- Looking at the TOP RATED qualifiers, a case is mounting to ‘double stake’ on Top Rated qualifiers as well I think, but, that is early days still with those. You should certainly be backing all Top Rated qualifiers I think!
- IF you only want 1 or 2 bets per day, you could just back the TOP RATED runners- and if you had 2 points on each of those,as opposed to 1 point on all ratings qualifiers, you would have a tad more profit actually. As an example.
- All Other Qualifiers- I DO NOT back All Qualifiers (section 2 above) systematically. Mine, and our collective wisdom maybe, is to try and highlight those big priced horses NOT in the ratings pointers, that may be worth following. The odd such monster has, and will, win from time to time. Leaving 33/1 and 50/1 shots unbacked, is unpleasant! But, in truth, the ratings pointers as stand alone are doing just fine, and are way outperforming just backing ‘all qualifiers’.
C) Remember ALL MEMBERS Content is delivered via the blog. This IS NOT an email service. When you read ‘COMPLETE’ in the post heading above, you know there is no more content to be added. I ‘complete’ a post on the morning of racing,usually by 1oam. That just allows me time in case I have made an error and missed a qualifier! (that has happened 3 times in 15 weeks so far) Usually everything you need is up the evening before.
If that is as clear as mud, then do say so!
KEY:(applicable across the blog)
H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicates a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’ (eg STEEL CITY) in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier- they are a perfect 3/3 so far…) (no such double top rated qualifiers today)