FREE DAILY POST: 07/01/17 (complete)

Tips/write ups/jumps angles…

Let’s get to it…

TIPS

3.00 Sandown 

Rocky Creek- 1 point win – 9/1 (general) UP

Theatrical Star – 1 point win – 10/1 (general) 2nd 15/2

I have imposed a 2 point limit on myself in any race, after the debacle of the Welsh National. For the most part that will mean no more than two horses in any race (GN may be an exception!) I forget which one of you said it- a Paul maybe from a scratchy memory – but one of you said if you are backing more than 2 in a big race you are unsure of yourself, and are clearly not confident. Or, something along those lines. And, well, I tend to agree. It does help focus the mind somewhat…

Onto these two…

Rocky Creek- well it depends what side of the bed he rolls out of. He had a spell hunting I believe and that has sparked this old boy up it seems. He is the classiest horses in this race for me. He can carry weight. Soft/sticky ground is no problem. This mark is no problem/wont be an excuse. He stays, he jumps, he likes the track, he likes this hill. The first few fences are crucial. If he is in a rhythm on or near the front end after the first few I can’t see him not being there near the death. If he is, he goes very close. Well, I think if he is on song, he is the one to beat for me. He may not be up for it today but at 9/1 I am happy to roll that dice. He beat Morney Wing the last day as well as some others around him and that was a decent race- we know what he did NTO.  There is a fair bit of pace on in here, and it could be testing enough. As such his extra stamina is a plus. I can’t see him being out-paced here and he will stay on up the hill, when many others may have had enough. I just hope he pings the first few and the jockey is still. I will be excited then.

Theatrical Star- well a couple of years back was chasing Le Reve home over CD I think, off 139. He clearly isn’t as good as he once was but he likes the track, races prominently,is usually a sound jumper, won’t mind what the ground does- well I hope it is soft- some rain please, and looks like he was given a prep LTO where given he was over hurdles, up against some unexposed types, he ran with great credit. I would like to think canny Tizzard has aimed him at this. Given this may be a slog (not as bad as last year when we had the winner, Soll, and what a race that was!) and run at a decent clip, having this light weight on his back may be a big positive also. I thought he looked solid. He has a touch of class (albeit never won a handicap chase above C3 but he has placed in some C2s) is in form, ticks plenty of boxes, and just looks solid. Very solid. I thought 10s was more than fair.

Of the rest…

Well, as I looked through the market, biggest priced horse first, nothing else really jumped out at me. I suppose Wychwoods Brook is interesting to a point but he is a slow mud lover who won a decent race by default really. I don’t think he has the class and can hit one. If this is sticky/goes on the soft side, a lot of these in here will be inconvenienced. Many in here like a decent surface, historically. Aerial is interesting, but was poor the last day and is not as classy as his stablemate- if Rocky has an off day, he could finish ahead of him. That fontwell win was ok, but I wonder if he is good enough for this.

That leaves a shortlist of 3 main dangers I think… GaslineBoy head the list but has been thumped 11lb for his facile success LTO- and I don’t know what he has beaten there. I wonder whether he is up to this mark,in a race where he will not get an easy lead without going too fast, surrounded by horses, at a course he has never raced at before. In the end, that combination of things put me off. He is the clunker- I thought about it. But fancied the two selections more. We shall see if I have got that wrong. He should run his race.

Shuil Royale is interesting…in the sense that like Rocky Creek he is the only other horse in here that is in the top 3 of both HRB and Geegeez Speed. But, I think he is best on a sound surface and any softening may do for him. Esp in a race like this, here.  If I have that wrong, he may well go close. He is in form, goes well after a break and Harry’s horses are flying.

That leaves…Dynatse. They haven’t have they?? Somehow disguised a proper plot by making him look badly out of form?? The headgear changes again but my word he was so poor the last day and surely 7s is just short. He hasn’t shown much. Part of me thinks he is going to bolt up here for last year’s winning trainer. My head says he has gone at the game. Even at his best I am not sure, in a big field in a race run at a gallop, on soft, that he would relish 3m up this hill. So, I won’t back him. It is hard to really. But, if he were ever to discover any form whatsoever, he would be battling it out with Rocky Creek over the last couple.

I struggled to make a case for the rest and if anything else wins I wasn’t really close to picking them. Like I said I am going on the premise that this may be soft and/or sticky ground. If it is actually proper good ground, then that opens this race right up. Some need it heavy also.

Update: I suppose now it is soft I should mention Cloudy Too- I wasn’t sure how much ability remains really and whether he is stil good enough to win a deep race like this. A lot of his best performances have come at LH, flat tracks- albeit wrong to say he doesn’t handle RH/Undulations/Stiff finish. But, he hasn’t raced here before.  He may want it even heavier and I wondered if this may even happen too quickly for him. I know the ground wasn’t ideal the last day but he was thumped, albeit ran ok I suppose. I suppose with GasLine he may be the clunker but I left him. Some sort of case can be made.

Many in here just look out of form- and as I think about it, I don’t think I have backed many winners that come into a 3m+ chase out of form. No excuses on that front with our two. I am a bit tired of making excuses for horses too often, esp if they recently run in conditions that were fine for them, with seemingly little excuse…

PACE..

Well, there is plenty on in here. I am not sure if my thinking that ‘if there is loads of pace you want a hold up horse’ is actually a load of bollocks for a 3m+ handicap chase. I mean, they can only jump at a certain safe speed and it really depends on the jockey. Clearly some horses ‘have to’ lead and sulk if they don’t, but I don’t think there are any like that in here. And lone front runners are a massive way in – another did the job at Wetherby today. I thought The Becher would be frenetic- as it happened HighLand Lodge jumped at his own speed really, with one other. I also thought that in the Potters Cross race at Newbury- James King instead was up there all the way but didn’t kill the horse, he let Financial Climate go ahead at one point, thinking he was going too quick- and he was right. But, that pace duel didn’t do for him.

So, my point – there is a lot of pace on paper, but if the jockeys are sensible, that is not necessarily a negative. If the jockey goes the pace he wants we should be fine. Rocky and Theatrical can lead, they should definitely be front third- others may be up there for a time- Gas Line Boy, Loose Chips. Pete The Feat, but they should be able to travel comfortably on the pace. No issues there. It is always hard to come from behind here, even in a slog. We should be in the right spot. (obviously about 5/6 will now go at it from the off and all fade turning in!!)

Right, that will do. (oh, and there are a few in here who I don’t think stay, either. Lines through those)

Good luck with whatever you fancy.

 

That will be all for tips

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

Sat Trainer/Jockey Combo

1.50 Sand- Garde La Victoire H1 G3 – WON 2/1

Missed One…

12.55 Winc- New Republic- WON 14/1

 

Harry Fry Mares (10/1 guide)

12.45 Sand – Desert Queen 14,30 (UP)

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio – LIVE TEST

Chase

1.35 New – Trickaway- 14,30 G3 – UP

 

Other

Jan Trainers (pointers)

12.40 Ling – Sate Residence (any odds) 14,30 UP

 

***

That will be all for today.

Good luck with any bets.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

45 Responses

  1. Lol didn’t think I was that blunt Josh. The main point I was making was that I didn’t like multiple choices in a race unless specifically taking on a (usually short priced) favourite. As you’ve always pointed out, you’re your own harshest critic, a trait that will stop you standing still, and hopefully keep you consistently ahead of the game.
    I suspect I may get a few tips for this race, so I’ll hang fire at the moment. Good luck,
    Paul

    1. haha- I am more pleased with my memory on that one! No I don’t think you were, but I thought that was the main gist,and right too. It was good to read that though- and you were correct- my gut/analysis on that one – when I ignored the trends- thought Native River would probably be the one to lug around that weight as I put in write up- now, instead of battening down the hatches with a couple of plays, 2 points max,)or leaving the race) I took the opposite, foolhardy approach of backing multiple selections for a silly amount of points! Anyway, we’ve tried to learn from that! I will always take that type on no doubt – the day you don’t is the day the 33/1 trends horse romps home!, but a more considered approach needed.
      Yep will be interesting what others go for. I think those two will have me cheering over the last couple, just then what else may be flying at them- a classy grey maybe!

  2. I am not about tomorrow..off to Cambridge early and then back to London to see Millwall try and keep the score down v Bournemouth! So I will miss the racing.

    Therefore I have done some study whilst watching W*** H** lose again.

    I agree with Theatrical Star in 3.00 SP and am on. Dont you think that the distance may be too short for Rocky Creek? Some outsiders you could have a stab at Baileys Concerto (50/1) and Ericht (25/1).

    I have also had bets on Atirelarigo, 1.15 SP; Fox Appeal, 2.05 Win and Ravenhoe, 6.15 Wol.

    Good luck all.

    1. Hi Martin, not now the rain has come, he has won 3m around Kempton- his ‘slow/plodding’ efforts in recent month may have been due to his mind/needing soft. You will need a true stayer today..and with that said. Bailey’s and Ericht won’t stay this trip, even on good, up this hill, for me, let alone in soft. Famous last words as one of them romps to victory!! GL

  3. Looks like a nice card at Sandown. Starting with the finale I think Cloonacool looks overpriced. Now 2lbs below his last winning mark. Paddy Brennan returning on board is eye-catching given he is 2/2 for the horse. (Also 4/11, 7p for Edmunds over handicap hurdles). Won’t have any issues with the rain tomorrow given he is 3/5, 4p over handicap hurdles on soft or heavy. 14s looked too big. I also like the look of Morning Reggie who is 1/1 over course and distance and now 1lb below his last mark. Ground should be fine also. Sherwood is in very good form right now. Moving on to the big one I have to have a bet on Cloudy Too. He is now only 1lb above his last chase win in the Peter Marsh 12 months ago. The ground was too fast LTO and he has a massive 11lb swing with the winner. Sue Smith’s last 2 runners have won so the stable is in great form. Looks to have a solid e/w chance and again at 14s thought he was too big. Finally away from the jumps I have to have a bet on Outlaw Torn at Wolverhampton 18:45, who seems to have the right conditions and is down to a very low weight. He went very close 2 starts ago and Fanning is back on board. Should have his way out front given the only over likely front runner has been drawn in 13.

    1. Tx for pointing outlaw torn out nick,backed it a couple of times,can pop up at a big price. Dutched it with gary priestleys horse Dukes Meadow.N1

    2. Cheers Nick paid out at 16/1 on Bet365, half a point each way, also followed Martin on Ravenhoe beaten on the line at 15/2. The forum that just keeps giving! +33 points on the day thanks in the main to Pete the Feat at 28/1. Keep the tips coming.

    3. Thanks guys. After Cloudy Too lost 4th at the last and Coolacool got done for 3rd at the line it’s nice for the AW to bail me out.

  4. I have no doubt DYNASTE is the best handicapped horse in the race it was 2m 6f instead of 3m i would rate him a cert.However i am not convinced he stays 3m at racing pace nowadays although he was staying on at one pace last time over 3m 4f in the betfair.Like you idont think 7s or 8s is good value but it is hard to leave him unbacked.

    1. yep i agree with all that Martin- one of those isn’t it- there is a feeling, more heart/gut, which says something may happen here! 5s is ridiculous though and doesn’t even tempt me in for a ‘saver’ say. He could make a lot of us look silly. I can let him win at that price and cheer him on- it wont be a gutting, he was 20s+ or something. Albeit 14s 10 days or so ago. That was probably worth a small nibble. Not now. GL

  5. I’m around 10 miles from the course and its been raining / drizzling solidly for the last few hours. I reckon the Veterans Chase will turn into a real slog which will play to both Rocky Creek and Cloudy Too’s strengths. I think most of these will have been laid out for this race given how valuable it is and as a result I think you want something with a combination of a decent mark and a touch of class both of which these two have. Good luck all.

  6. Ali / Josh,

    Am I right in thinking Ask Paddy is a qualifier for Sam Drake in the 1pm at Newcastle tomorrow. Already been backed into 9/2 – 11/2 from 10’s earlier this afternoon.

    1. you are right indeed

      slightly different profile this one with a long break since last novice run but still worth reinvesting a bit of Manwell’s winnings

  7. Hi Josh / All

    A non runner today for the “Super Stallions” so no change
    1 winner 5 losers running total £952.75

    One qualifier tomorrow

    5.45 Wolves – Ryan the Giant 8.0 (Bet 365/Skybet/Betvic/Betbright)
    Fastnet Rock 1M 4F – 10 runs, 5 wins, 6 places 50% win SR 60% place SR

    Staking £19.06 – 2% of £952.75

    Good Luck everyone with your selections

    Cheers
    Steve

  8. Ali,
    Correct,
    Ask Paddy now best 5/1

    Interesting outsider
    WINCANTON 3.15
    WIZARDS BRIDGE 28/1 Stan James, 25/1 elsewhere
    Soft ground specialist, might turn the two favs over.

      1. Yep great shout, didn’t back him myself but watched with interest and very pleased for you that the rider rode out and grabbed 3rd on the line! Well done, lovely return, hope you had a good go EW.

  9. Couple for T.r George that could be worth a punt tomorrow, 2.05 Wincanton Some buckle and 3.00 Sandown saint are. Used Joshs old Tr George jan-Feb system but added in heskin as well, the odds cap was 14s if I have it right so technically saint are doesn’t qualify but 20s with 4 places has to be worth an ew stab.

    1. Ah you are good at digging up my old micro angles!! I will have to have another look at that one! Would be nice for Some Buckle to win- am certain was going to bolt up at Aintree (pocket talk) but he does like taking a fence with him every now and then. Got ability though. GL

      1. Ha yeah! I have got all of the best ones written down in a big book of monthly trainers, some of them have done really well some not so well lol had a couple that bombed out and a couple that worked better without the odds cap!!! Namely baker and balding a few month’s back, hopefully next year the heavens open up for venitia 🙂

  10. Hi all
    Planty of nice races and betting opportunitys
    First i cant leave Desert Queen at 12:45 SANDOWN
    10/1
    Star Of The Stage (5/1) at Lingfield 13:10 look the best for me
    Revocation at Newcastle 13:35 9/2 is my bet
    1:15 SANDOWN Atirelarigo

    3:00 SANDOWN
    i think
    Shuil Royale and small ew on Ericht
    and there is 2.05 Wincanton Some buckle
    and 2-45 NEWCASTLE HARLEYS MAX
    lot of bets
    Regards
    P

  11. Daveron goes in the 1.15 San

    Tipped (twice, maybe?) on here when running 3m but sadly not staying long enough.

    Absolutely tanked along both times up to a point and looks like the drop back is what he has been screaming out for, for me. 12s into 9s but still a bet for me

    1. Yea interesting one. Tipped just the once I think, Ludlow. But he was so poor there. Not sure what was up- PU a concern, and had problems long before stamina kicked in. But drop interesting, now on soft. No idea, will watch with interest! GL

  12. 1.50 Sand – 4.50am & there’s been 30k matched on race so far – last year’s winner Bold Henry has 35k waiting to be matched at 10.5 dunno whether it’ll have any baring on result or betting but don’t recall seeing anything so ‘standout’ just thought I’d make a note & see what happens?

    1. Might just have been a good example of fake money ‘girt wads’ sitting just behind front of queue, somebody trying to control the price – force it one way or the other – there was 47k by around 10.30am only to disappear (as fake money does) by noon – biggest matched bet I could see was £750 – came 2nd to stable first string.

  13. I think anyone backing Dynaste based on last few runs at anything less than 50/1 needs to visit a shrink on Monday morning! The overnight rain will favour the proven stayers of which Rocky Creek and Wychwoods Brook would be of most interest to me.

    1. I tend to agree Ian but I am starting to get ‘that feeling’ We shall see. He is so short now, all things considered. IF Whychwoods jumps round fine, you should get an EW run for your money I think. Can see the case for him for sure. GL

  14. Gasline Boy and Aerial for me Josh you may have the wrong Nichols horse and Williams has improved Gasline Boy and will jump for fun again today – It’s all about opinion but have a look at Pete the Feet at 28/1 the price is too big

    Best of Luck

    Joe

    1. Yep I won’t be putting you off those two for sure. I do wonder if Aerial quite has the class for this but he is very lightly raced and that Fontwell run was in tough enough conditions. Interesting how he takes to these fences, and indeed how he will cope if a proper slog. But, can see the case and provided he doesn’t get too far back should give you run for money and I will be watching him closely. IF Rocky shows up, and you were to say to me they will both run their race, I think Rocky beats him everytime, just think he is the better horse. But, it’s a game of opinion! And that is an IF.

      Cloudy Too- plenty of you seem keen on his chances and given the wisdom of the crowd I have just had a muggy £5 on him at 10s- I can see the case. That will cover my other bets and leave enough for 3 pints or so! I wondered if he quite had the ability now for a race like this- I wasn’t sure that recent hurdle win was the run of a horse who could take a race like this, but he is a better chaser and Smith doesn’t come south for nothing generally. He loves the mud and stays well enough- albeit not as much as a stayer as Rocky for me. First run around here also. But, 10s+ was decent enough I suppose.

      Superb race in store. GL

  15. Just a couple of bets for me today on what looks a decent day’s racing….12.55 Winc Threebarmymen (H0, R3)….1.00 Newcastle Redkalani (H0, R2)…..the “complete muppet” in me has got the wrong horse backed earlier this morning, I backed No 5 thinking it was Redkalani so I have a bet running on Diego Suarez (H2, R4)by mistake……plonker or maybe not !!

    finally, 1.30 Wincanton Get In Pat (H0, R2)…backed EW @ 25/1 this one just floats across the HRB ratings just beneath the top 4 ratings, good trainer, probably the most successful from the trainers Quotes group of er, er, er,??….but is rated 2nd best by my alternative figures

  16. With Gary Moore still not finding form it will be interesting to see how Bagging Turf goes in the 2.40 Win as they fancy it. Stable needs to have some winners before I go in big.

  17. early races have had a 1/9 odds on & and a 1/3 odds on turned over…..somebody’s pockets are empty after those two races

    1. Another one I just missed – the only bet there 1/9 is a Lay, there was a 1/16 turned over the other day but trying to win 18 for a £2 liability when fav’s in non-h’caps have a strike rate of 46% seems worth it to me?

  18. Hey Martin just placed a bet on Bagging Turf @ 5/1 horse has had 3 hurdle races 4th 1st an 2nd last race was chase won that, up in grade today trainer says “One of our better chances on the day”. I’m like you thou not going with this month’s mortgage money.
    Regards Al

    1. Oh it has been quite the 20s minutes Norman! In Saturday profit dreamland! That newcastle winner 33s with PP last night, 25s around this morning I think?
      Anyway, his SP is fine. Good job I spotted that 14/1 winner above this morning, nearly missed him in my HRB account! That would have hurt.

  19. No luck for me,maybe i am to much frozen
    i have bet on Wolverhampton 17.45: Frivolous Prince
    4/1 second 7 days ago look the best in that company

    1. Oh my. Boom indeed!! Top picking that!! (and I failed to have another look) One thing i failed to take account of – always realise post race- is his size, and how having that weight on back may help. Course form also. Damn. Good run from Theatrical so no complaints, was hoping Pete would stop! Sadly he didn’t. Well done.
      I would have taken the day I had with those two losing before today.
      Team RTP happy all round hopefully!

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