A decent two days for the blog, +26 points with tips and TTP ratings pointers horses (14/1 winner Tuesday much needed after a recent lull/some annoying/close second places,but they will do just fine over time. Evidence suggests they work) Nice to start off 2017 with 2/3 on the tipping front, and a rare thing- every one of them giving us some sort of run for our money!
A quiet day on Wednesday, jumping wise… NO TIPs, NO JUMPS ANGLES.
Early Jan and three meetings on the sand – Steve will love that,(some sire stattage on its way no doubt…) I think it’s ridiculous. But then, given so many jumps tracks want racing from Boxing Day>New Years Day, I suppose a lull was expected.
I will have a flick through my AW stats guide as a bonus and see if anything else stands out for Lingfield/Wolvs
I am useless at tracking horses- one area I need to improve on massively – but a few for our notebooks (I say ‘our’ in the hope some of you may add these to trackers and remind me when I miss them! 🙂 )
–Scooby.. McPherson handicap hurdler was a TTP pick on Tuesday and came 3rd rewarding any EW backers (not me) This race was run at a crawl, really was slow. Brennan rode a stormer on the winner – shock horror- realising the slow pace he switched him out wide early enough and got after him. Game over. Anyway, Scooby looks like a stayer and wants every yard of 24f. He was a bit flat footed when the tempo picked up but also couldn’t hold his position easily, getting shuffled back a few times – when he tried to close he nearly came down, taking a flight of hurdles with him. In the end he did well to come third. Looks like he needs a stronger pace and maybe a more galloping track- a long straight and sweeping bends in which to get going. Unexposed he should have wins in him over timber.
–Dawson City… just a couple from the ‘tipping race’ while they are on my mind. He stays. He also likes the mud I think. This may not have been testing enough and he made a few errors when trying to close. If he were mine I would use his stamina and try and ride him more prominently. This run indicates he has a staying chase pot in him, at C3 level. Decent effort.
–Sartorial Elegance– he drifted here, having bolted up the time before, but was running a big race before unseating rider just before they turned in for home. He hadn’t been asked a question there and to me was running like a horse still ahead of his mark. I am not sure if he got crowded as he had jumped ok up to that point and another who was trying to do it the hard way- closing horses in front who were not really stopping. He has more 3m+ chase wins in him.
– those are probably the main two from that, along with the winner who could go on from that. Keep Paddy on him! That prominent style and jumping (if he jumps like that again) and proven stamina will see him run well in many a staying chase. I am not sure if he wants much further than 3m4f/5f. That awaits to be seen. Talk of the Eider I see. Interesting – if he can get some space/race prominently. Azure Fly ran well also and he will pick up a race at some point as well no doubt. He ran better than i thought which makes me question how testing the ground really was. But, he is clearly in good spirits with himself.
Anything entered your notebooks recently?
TTP – ALL WEATHER
Ribbing (maidens) H1, G1
Tell A Story (maidens) G3
Ferryview Place (distance/class) 14 H1
H1 – horse race base top rated, H3, top 3 rated (so 2nd/3rd)
G1 – geegeez speed top rated, G3, top 3 rated.
With the jumpers, we have had two horses qualify top rated against both ratings sets and both have bolted up so far. So, interesting to see how Ribbing goes. He is evens though, maybe his stablemate will chase him home for a muggy forecast!
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
12.55 – Storm Alert – (UP,but not far off 3rd – I suspect he could have gone much closer if desired there,no money,so that run not a shock. But showed he has retained ability I think. Interesting to see him next few starts,suspect may be punted of boards soon..) 25/1 (bet365) well I am easing of highlighting horses in this section as I am not that great at finding anything that runs well, consistently at least -and it is best for all sorts of reasons that I focus on all the other content. BUT, 25/1 caught my eye here. Anyone who uses Geegeez Gold may see why I have had a small EW nibble. He is 21 lbs below his last winning mark, before you take off the jockeys claim. He is suited to all race conditions and stays well (so the big step up in trip interesting- last run probably to get him fit,hers can step forward massively from first run) The yard are also in form, 1/5,4p last 14 days and this horse to his credit, has won or placed in half of all his handicap hurdle runs. Gardner had a virus last year I think, for a large part, and they are starting to run well again. Now, it could be he is just gone at the game. I wouldn’t be shocked if he tailed off. I also wouldn’t be shocked if he won. So, at 25s, I have had a small EW play. I know nothing about the jockey, he may not be any good. It is a strange race to line up a gamble and maybe they are lining up a race a bit further down the line, with Lucy back on. I suspect he may have a win in him this season and could be worth tracking. At this price, I will pay something to find out. (top rated on geegeez speed by some way also!)
May be worth having a look at Raafie in 3.55 also, big price, 4 places. Knowing me I have picked the wrong one. Those two may be worth baking EW just based on trainer form, for small stakes.
That will be all for Wednesday.