FREE DAILY POST: 02/01/17 (complete)

TIP + Jumps angles…

Well, day one of the new ITV adventure, what did we think? I for one really enjoyed it. Chappers was slightly irritating at the end but other than that, thought it was a great first show. That coverage isn’t for us anoraks who may have ATR / RUK and they have to appeal to a wider audience, many of whom may not have discovered the joys of racing as yet. The features look something to look forward to and the ‘banter’ between the main members was brilliant – plenty of light hearted/make you smile moments, which is what you want. I will be tuning in again. I suspect it will divide opinion, much like Matt Chapman! I think they showed early promise in showing off the sport in all its glory.

 

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TIPS

Well given I am struggling picking winners/horses that run well when I do study a race in depth, diving into a couple of races without looking at them in any detail at all probably wasn’t going to end well. Very muggy and it’s probably wise not to do that too often!

But, it does appear the rain is on the way so we shall see if that can jolt me out of my slumber…starting with…

2.50 Plumpton

Morney Wing – 1 point EW– 12/1 (general) WON 12/1 (21/1 BFSP- never looked,gulp..backing all tips to BFSP doesn’t do very well at all,but maybe some of you nabbed those extra 8 points or so) 

(hit 14s,16s in places after I posted,hopefully you may have got bigger,but 12s declared price)

(market is suggesting he has lost a leg and I have picked another shocker. On the drift, which is somewhat surprising. We shall see if the market has it right) 

This one is fast becoming another Cogry (yep, I failed to back him over hurdles at Cheltenham) in that i keep thinking he has one of these types of races in him- he also keeps running decent enough races, his mark doesn’t really move, and he seems to always be an OK price. 12s does seem a tad harsh for this one in here and I wanted a proven stayer on board. He has won in heavy and soft and seems to just keep going. That C2 race the last day was deeper than this and it was run at a good gallop to my eye. He hit the front turning in and was leading over the second last, and just led over the last before being caught up the hill in the final 1/2 furlong or so, possibly just beaten but better horses more than anything else. Conas Toi was just behind,and he ran well at Newbury, Bob Tucker not far away from him and a big gap back to the rest. He seems to run his best races when ridden close to the pace and I hope they try their best to track RDB and Sartorial Elegance. He seems to take some riding if held further back and it could be he doesn’t like being surrounded by horses. Given they know he stays and he can clearly travel well enough to hold a position near the front, i hope they make plenty of use of him. I just thought he looked solid and a repeat of that last run sees him right in the mix here. It would be nice to back one that gives me a run for my money! This race could be ideal for him. He could have needed his first two runs of the season and on his 3rd and now 4th starts he may run his best races. The booking of Fehily caught the eye – mainly just getting a top jockey booked is eye catching. They must expect a decent run here. The jockey/trainer record isn’t much to shout home about but the price allowed a dabble and I don’t think it is a negative having him on.

Of the rest…

Well, the two at the top of the market should clearly go well. Mysteree looks a thorough stayer and 5/1 is probably fair enough. He looks progressive and is a dour stayer. Carrying 11-12 will be tough in this mud,and it is 1st more than he had on his back the last day, but it may not be a problem. A question though. He will be grinding up that hill. He did have a tough race the last day and has had 44 days off since, but that may have done him good and the trainer remains in fine form. He is also up 9lbs and I am not convinced as to what he beat the last day yet. But, he is solid, and if you like him there isn’t much to say to put you off. He just wasn’t 12/1. Sartorial Elegance looks progressive but will need to be having been whacked with an 18lb rise- and again you are not sure how deep that race was. He did hack up though. The combination of the extra couple furlongs on soft ground in an unknown, and the fact he should actually have a race on in the latter stages, rather than coasting home. 7/1 is ok I suppose but I wanted proven stayers on side who had run well in similar types of races. He may still have plenty in hand and relish conditions. We shall see.

There seems to be some money for old Rigadin De Beauchene- I mean he has been there and done it and will stay all day. He looked ready to roll on his last start and I can’t think he will come on for it. He has never been one to carry loads on weight in handicap chases either, now 0/12,3p in handicap chases with 10-12 or more on his back. So, a niggle there. He also isn’t getting any younger and it could be he is just regressing now. I can’t see, if I think he was fit LTO,why he overturns the form with Mysteree as he was well beaten that day. If he did actually need it then he may get a lot closer and given he stays so well could take it, if handling the weight. This is easier than some of his chases in recent months. So, I can see a case. I hope younger legs may get him again.

I was struggling to make a case for much else. Woodford County is a proven stayer but just looks out of sorts, and NailM stays well also – but C3 has always seems to happen too quickly for him and he only ran OK LTO in what was a weaker race than this. He may grab a place but I think is too slow to win against some of these better horses. Thos 5 horses mentioned so far (ignoring Sartorial E) are THE proven stayers in the race, either having won over 3m4-3m6f before, or placed a couple of times. Everything else has that to prove- and in what could be a real test, I didn’t want to be rolling the dice on stamina/ground etc.

Onderun is unexposed over fences but it’s a stamina unknown. Likewise Cailleach Annie who is interesting at a price in the sense she goes as if a marathon trip may be what she wants- but this is a big step up, she is inexperienced, and I want to see much more over fences fist. That last run could have been better and this is a step up. The rest i was happy to leave. Dawson City is now 0/8 over fences , he does have a stamina Q (albeit ‘looks’ like he will relish it) and also a class question. I suppose TheMoonAndBack looks interesting given the yard history in the race- if this was the target he may get closer to Satorial- he does have stamina to prove,albeit shapes as if ok and has won over 26f in mud, and there is a class questions also- but I suppose he is lightly enough raced. His chase form has been in small fields and he can hit one,so odd niggle. Could go well though.

PACE – Well RDB and Sartorial may try and take them along. There are plenty of pace pushers in here. Mysteree will be tracking the pace as will Morney Wing hopefully. Those 4 ‘could’ be up there the whole way and fighting it out near the end.

That will be all for today.

 

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JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio- LIVE TEST

Chase

2.00 Ayr – Whiskey Chaser H1

2.50 Plump- Sixty Something

3.00 Ayr – Sky Full Of Stars

 

Southwell Sires – test (14/1< guide)

12.40 – Lucky Louise G3 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. A couple of systems I use from ON COURSE PROFITS have thrown up a couple of selections tomorrow. 12. 40 sabha and 3 10 red touch.

  2. I live close to Plumpton, we have had rain all Sunday, so I am expecting HY.
    Plumpton 2.50
    Woodford County 25/1> 20/1
    Morney Wings 12/1
    Nail ‘M 18/1

    1. Clavis – Woodford County is interesting, Beforeall too? of the outsiders? Seems to have a fair amount of conditions to suit, but I guess its whether he can put a good run together for a change! Pretty much like some of the other outsiders in here. This is Josh territory, not mine…He won’t be able to resist tipping in this to get his new year off to a flyer!!! Clear skies over Plumpton tomorrow too ( potentially)
      Chris

  3. Woodford County looks overpriced to me. Don’t think he has had ideal conditions since his Welsh National 5th 12 months ago. Willing to give him one last chance at the price.

  4. The Gary Moore stable venture out with some runners today. Albeit the stable is out of form you have to run them if they seem fit. Watching brief until they have a winner though. The best hopes today appear to be Baron Alco 1.20 Plu and Tothemoonandback 2.50 Plu. I like Mysteree in the 2.50 but have also had a few quid on Rigadon DB as Venetia has found her form and am on at 14/1.

    Good luck today. We are only in to day two of 2017 so no need to chase losers yet!

  5. Got on Morney wing last night, so hopefully your luck/selection picking is getting off to a good start for 2017!!
    Also had a couple of quid on Azure Fly, but not sure he will like the going.
    Good luck.

  6. going to put up some more losers today Josh! You think you’re out of form posted four losers ny eve working yesterday missed dominada 7/2 and tour des champs 50/1 all proven progressive potential horses on my figures!! Today its tough but will put up Transient Bay, Ascuncion, Whiskey Chaser, Tothemoonandback(figures have 5 in the race but this could be the plot!!Ha ha!)

    Good luck to all and may all who go out come back safe, human and equine!

  7. Well done Josh, as I predicted last week it was only a matter of time.
    That’s the monkey off your back, onwards and upwards for 2017

    1. cheers Norman, yep I did a run through, and then did cross reference with ratings, and he was only one top 3 on both HRB/Geegeez which is always a confidence boost! I should probably ensure I always have on board at least one such horse in any race i play in, tipping wise!

  8. Cheers gents. That’s the value game- need to update December’s results but in one fell swoop that wipes out that months losses, or near enough, as an example. Hopefully I can build on that, good start to the year! He is probably this seasons Russe Blanc,albeit not 20s, but had him down as looking like a soft ground slogger since last season. Happy with that.

    I think we will try and stick to soft/heavy ground races for now!

    1. I will keep chipping away! That win good for the mind, if nothing else. Watching/tipping a majority of horses who go no yard early/tail off, can be demoralising! A few more Harry The Vikings and Morney Wings will do the trick. Don’t need many winners at those odds to come out in front over time. Long way to go yet, but good start to the year.

  9. Amazing what a winner does for the comments your blog after a race. Seem to remember that you did very well from around Dec 2015 to Feb 2016…so maybe the start of another hot run of form. Well done Josh…hard work usually pays off in the end and your analysis (win or lose) is always worth reading. Happy New Year.

    1. Ha cheers Martin, well everyone likes a winner and you do have to enjoy it! There are never any/many negative comments after losers in fairness- and I don’t really care- I back myself in soft/heavy ground 3m+ chases and I back them all, what other people do is up to them! But, in part i hope the write ups worth a read, they help me think through a race as well. Albeit, hard not to start asking given some of my form. Yep, last Jan/Feb was mad, +90 points in Jan. Here’s hoping. More rain would be welcome!

  10. nice one with morney wing josh, never doubted you! won£306 on betfair . liked the write up felt positive about it.

    1. Bitter sweet result for me with Morney Wing, my poor eyes didn’t spot this HRB system bet on my phone but managed to spot Dawson City. Really find it tough betting and working!! Pleased you’ve started with a bang though.

  11. Cheers Josh, just chucked a fiver on Betfair at 20.0 to see if it would be matched, based on the write-up and drift, and returned from the match to see the great return (BFSP if I read your comment right). Good confidence booster, mate.
    Paul

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