Members Club: if you have any interest in how my ‘ratings pointers’ have been getting on you can read some updated results HERE>>>
Win SRs around 27%, win|place around 50% and ROIs in the 40-66% range make for interesting reading. It will be rather good fun IF they can be repeated moving forwards.
KERROW... if you have any interest in developing ‘race reading’ skills then do go and have a watch of his race at Chepstow and today’s race at Taunton. I am slowly getting better and was pleased how this one panned out/how i read his last race. It all rather came together for him as I thought it may do, but 7/2 wasn’t enough to tempt me in sadly. In hindsight that was wrong and a shame he wasn’t 9/2 this morning. Anyway, that is irrelevant. In that Chepstow race they went a crawl, the Nicholls horse dictating such a steady pace. It then turned into a dash for the line over the last few- this benefited those near the front/and those who had a turn of foot. The bunch finish was some indication of the pace also. Kerrorw was mid division and further back than ideal (but his first chase start so understandable they wouldn’t launch him at his fences on the front end) and when the pace lifted he was caught out, staying on nicely enough near the end and not exactly hard ridden. But it took him some time to get organised and speed up. At Taunton he got a stronger pace to aim at, had Hutch on, and they rode him closer to the pace- to ensure he was in the right spot and didn’t have to come from too far back. He was also more experienced. He won it going away really and is one to watch. His hurdles run at Aintree marked him out as more of a staying type. Also great to see Silver Commander step forward and he clearly has handicap chases in him. He bumped into a nice one here I think, and the form could be worth something given his unexposed nature also. The 3rd was a solid yardstick. Given his owner, (Mr Hemmings)I wonder if/when eyes will turn back to Aintree… (he does like a winner there)
Cheat The Cheater – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) UP
Vice Et Vertu – 1/2 point win – 7/2 (general) UP
Loughalder – 1/2 point win – 14/1 (general) UP
Well that was just awful. No comment. Maybe a fitting end to the latter half of the year. Onto 2017. Loughalder not here to run a race as was held up, Cheat The Cheater never went a yard and the fav was poor. Nothing to cheer from 2f in, and then 4f out. At least Ali lifted the mood, cheers!
My shortlist for this race is listed above and I couldn’t think of a reason not to have something on them all. I have imposed a 2 point limit on any race I tip in now to help concentrate the mind, and for now a limit of 1 point on any horse.
Vice Et Vertu- well he is the most likely winner here for me and 7/2 is more than fair and this bet covers the stakes on the others and just about leaves enough to buy two pints in Liverpool, maybe halfļ a pint in London! The race will be run to suit for this hold up type, he is progressive, and if that last win was a sign they have turned the corner with him there could be loads more to come. Any weight/ratings rise at this stage is irrelevant as we don’t know how much progress there could be to come. Conditions should be fine albeit going LH over fences a slight question. But, the trainer remains ‘in form’ according to the Geegeez criteria and is the only such one in the race. Brennan is on also which is some indication I think. He should be going close and while I could have left him, having him as saving cover seemed sensible enough.
Cheat The Cheater – well I thought this might turn into a right old slog and this one is a dour stayer. There is plenty of pace on paper here, 4/5 front runners, and it looks proper soft, with some heavy patches. It could take some getting and they could be strung out near the end. I thought his style, stamina and his light weight may count for something here. He can get outpaced and a tad detached- that is a danger but he is 12/1, but he seems like a trier most of the time. He should relish conditions and is a CD winner. He also comes here in form, on his third start of the season and could be primed for this. Given he has won around here before, maybe this was an early season target. IF he can repeat his last run he should be in the mix and he is a 3m+ Towcester grinder so should be there to pick up the pieces if many of these hit a wall over the last couple- which is possible. 12s stood out to me here. The jockey booking is odd- well, Popham has ridden him before,so not odd in that sense, but Johnson rode him the last day and is on the Case horse here….
And it could be he is the main danger to these three albeit over 24f, in soft, LTO he ran like a non stayer over fences to me. I think in a race like this stamina is now a question mark. It is harsh judging a horse on that one run but at 6s I wasn’t eager to dive in. You will really need to stay here…
Back to Loughalder… well he is a ‘been here and done it horse’ and he also happens to be a TTP stats pick that qualifies against both ratings sets and those types have shown early promise systematically – I backed him last night EW on that basis and given he ticks every box, I thought he is worth 1/2 point here at his price. He will race prominently and will relish conditions. He may have bumped into a couple the last day/may now peak having had another start. There are a couple of niggles- he doesn’t have a great record in December, albeit it is nearly Jan and from then on is usually the time to catch him. There is also a lot of pace on and if he tries to lead he will feel it come the end I think. Maybe one of them will be allowed to dictate but I am not convinced. But then him racing prominently is a positive of sorts, given the other two will be further back. Stan is on also, claiming 5lb which suggest they think he is a tad high in the handicap at the moment. He isn’t getting any younger either and clearly won’t be getting better. His recent wins arguably haven’t been the strongest of races either. SO, some questions, but 14s allowed a 1/2 point roll of the dice I thought.
PACE.. well Paddy/Basford/Carli/Lough/Sunny can all really trap along on the front end if they wish. They wont all be able to but it should be a well run race and they may all end up doing too much and set it up for the closers, and we have two of those onside. If the leaders don’t come back hopefully Loughalder sees of the others around him. He stays further which will be no bad thing and unlike many in here does arrive in some sort of form.
I should mention a couple of the others. I think the ground is too soft for Twirling Magnet. Sunny Legend is interesting and I don’t know what to make of him- he shouldn’t get an easy lead and I am unconvinced as to his stamina for a trip like this. He ran well on his return LTO so could build on that. He is also 0/9,1p LH, 0/6 over fences and is better going RH from what I can see. He could prove me wrong and is interesting enough but a couple of doubts there which made me leave him- well, pace, stamina,LH were all niggles. The rest seem to have more questions than answers at the moment.
On to Newbury…
Blameitallonmyroots – 1 point win – 7/1 (BV/SJ/BetfS) 13/2 (general) UP
Game was up pre race I think when RUK chaps said course was riding good on times, no soft around. Couldn’t hold position, never travelled really. Game over. Needs some soft, albeit maybe wouldn’t have made a difference on the day. Winner can clearly carry weight no problem, and with that running style will win a few more- great ride also from the young man, pulled him back of pace at key stages.
I started looking at this one last night and at the time this one looked interesting and having looked through again nothing has changed my mind on that front – I think 13/2, 7/1 looks fair enough given she could be open to any amount of improvement over fences and shaped very well the last day. I wondered whether she was just a mud lover before that Ascot run but the way she travelled and jumped suggests not. Sherwood has said once or twice this season that many of his are needing their first run and she ran as such to my eye. She travelled well into it and responded to pressure for a long way up the straight before a tired looking jump at the last. She ran well in 3rd. Hopefully she does come on for it. She should also race prominently, just behind the pace, which is a good place to be and if she travels and jumps like she did at Ascot, should be thereabouts over the last couple of fences. Stamina is a question but has shaped before as if 26f would be within range. She looks both hardy yet unexposed, is fit, and in form. Hopefully she can build on Sherwood’s record in C3 handicap chases at the track,which stands at 2/13,5p the last 5 years.
Of the rest…well it will be interesting to see if the boat that is Yanmare can take this- I fear on this ground, in this class, he may get a bit detached and those in front wont stop/come back/tire like in every other race he has won to date. He is a fine horse for connections and just may progress again but that sequence will stop at some point. There wasn’t enough there to tempt me in at 9/2. It could all just happen a bit too quick for him. Potters Cross is consistent but even with the claim has much more on his back than some of his recent chase runs. He will try and make all, but there should be pressure from Royal Palladium on that front and like the last day, he is susceptible to something with more in hand. He should run his race though. I think on my maths he has around 15lb more led on his back, in actual weight, from his last run. And he won his other Chepstow race this season off 9-11. IF he copes with carrying it, he will be thereabouts no doubt. But, it should feel slightly different for him- albeit as yet to evidence that he can’t carry weight, just an unknown. Conas Toi- well I fancied him the last day and he was a bit disappointing for me,not really picking up or maybe just not good enough on the day. That was a tough race also and it may have taken something out of him. I was happy to watch him but there could be more to come this season, and a win wouldn’t be a shock if building on that last run. Nothing at bigger prices tempted me in. If Willoughby Hedge hadn’t PU LTO I may be more interested but that was a poor run- maybe an excuse for that I am not sure- ground too soft/needing run. But even so, he does need to step up on his chase form albeit is unexposed enough to do so and King in great form. A couple of questions now though. I couldn’t really have the rest for me.
Pace- Potters Cross and Royal Palladium should be right up there, hopefully pestering each other. The selection should track the pair and with any luck pounce over the last couple.
That will do for Saturday. Fingers crossed I can end the year on some sort of high.
T George Handicap Chases (any odds)
(this micro now 61/201,101p, +118 SP, +150 BFSP since start 2010 – 12/43,22p,+22 SP in 2016. Solid)
12.40 Newb – Some Are Lucky 3rd 22/1>11/1
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – LIVE TEST
2.10 War – Bodega
2.50 Uttox – Rock on Rocky (Poste seems to be riding in the 1.35 Warwick, before heading here…)
December Trainer Pointers
2.10 War- Desert Retreat
2.05 Ling – Lunear Deity (14/1< )
That is all for today.
p.s I believe RUK are having a ‘free to air’ day on the channel,given the lack of terrestrial coverage, if you were not aware. I may have that wrong.