RESULTS: End Week 12 CLICK HERE>>>
WEEK 12 Totals
General Race Types: 8/48, 14p = -4.03
Micro Angles: 6/20,10p = +11.92
Total including multiple qualifiers: 14/68,24p = +7.89
Total 1x 1 point only : 10/58, 19p = -2.83
Bonus: 1/2,1p = +13
NOTE: A solid enough +10 points or so if backing everything once inc bonus stats, and you would take that as a weekly average. A slight loss on the week if ignoring the bonus stats. Around +34 points more IF just backing all qualifiers just once that qualified against the ratings (either just once or multiple times) It remains to be seen how that pans out over the coming weeks- and indeed the future of the ratings approach – I am in discussions with the relevant people as to their permitted use.
A non ratings 50/1 winner to boost the overall stats on Monday. I don’t think that was a confident wager (i threw £5EW at him late thinking if he placed that would be a solid return) but on paper it wasn’t impossible. I do wish I had glanced at the exchange tough- 150/1 BFSP. Gulp. I could have won £500 more for the same bet had I bothered to look. Amateur.
Qualifiers+ ratings+ notes …
Ascendant (all hcnps) UP 8/1
NOTE: Trainer 2/13,4p last 14 days, so going well enough. While this horse isn’t getting any younger he ticks all race conditions, is back down to his last winning mark (before taking off the claim) and arrives here in form, back in the care of Farrelly. 6/1 seems fair enough to my eyes in what looks an open enough race, where there are not really any unexposed ‘could be anything’ types lining up.
Bus Named Desire (hncp chase) PU 8/1>20/1
NOTE: Trainer 0/14,2p last 30 days. Race conditions (going,class,distance,also a course/ CD, winner) are fine for the horse so in that sense no problems. Simply then about fitness – is 0/2,0p 121-365 days. The market can guide with this trainer- they are usually well backed or at least do not drift. If fully tuned up, would run her race.
Yur Next (all hncps + micro class) WON 9/2>3/1
NOTE: Farelly again. This horse is just solid for the level and as long as he doesn’t start sulking again/’the blinker effect’ stops working, he should run his race again. Such is this poor level that this consistency can get you a long way and I doubt he will be far away again, in there pitching. Something may be better on the day but not much I can say to put you off. Should get a run for money over the last flight and his one paced plodding may be enough, esp if some others have an off day. One of those. But, he isn’t doing much different albeit only his second run at the trip. I would like them to make more use of him early, esp as isn’t loads of pace on paper in here. 9/2 fair enough in a poor race. May get beat but I am confident that my subjective judgment wont be bettering the ‘ratings pointer’ stats long term, when one qualifies against those.
2.50 T – Ascendant- UP
3.50 T – Yur Next- WON 9/2
Geegeez Speed (Dr Peter May’s ratings)
3.50 T – Yur Next WON 9/2
Today I have been in discussions with various people regarding my use of the ratings, specifically the speed ratings (use of HRB should be fine albeit I have emailed Chris and his team to check) that I access via Geegeez Gold. They licence these ratings from a Dr Peter May (website here>> if you are interested- that is NOT an affiliate link!) and having had an initial discussion with Matt it was felt I should speak to Peter. Unlike using ‘instant expert’ in Geegeez Gold, as an example, which still relies on my interpretation etc, using his ratings in this way was felt to be different and required permission/a discussion.
Well the good news is there is no bad news! Given I pay for access via Geegeez, and I am not actually repeating the ratings/am using them in a specific way, Peter saw no problem with my current approach. I have offered to send the odd donation every now and then etc.
So, we can carry on with our new test. Onwards…