Well. A 5/2 winner for the ‘ratings shortlist’ and a 7/1 second for Top Billing- he bumped into one in fairness but if those cheekpieces continue to work he will be winning in the mud very soon – esp if able to get an easy lead. He had to work at various times to lead and while that would have taken something out of him, it didn’t make a difference to the result. Hopefully Richards can place him to make all in the coming weeks.
There was also a ‘non’ ratings winner on the TTP Stats. The horse was Hartforth who was running at Ayr. He only went and won at 50/1. Blimey. 150/1 BFSP – which is a sickening price when you have a last minute ‘oh god what if he wins’ EW bet on Bet365 and don’t even think to look at the exchange! Actually, when he hit 50s, given his chance on paper was ok and it was mainly about how fit he would be, I thought he might grab third or something and that would be a nice return. Anyway, that will pay for plenty of losers no doubt and was a good start to the week.
Backing all TTP qualifiers last week, including the bonus stats, made around a +10 points profit. Just backing the ‘ratings pointers’ qualifiers once, made an extra +34 points or so on top of that. We shall all see if that trend continues.
None. Famine before the feast in terms of the 3m+ chasing game. Albeit I won’t be tipping in the King George – that is just a race to savour for me now the two Tizzard horses are lining up. But, there are a couple of other nice 3m+ chases from memory on Boxing day (a national at market rasen I always look at) and then we have The Welsh National.
12.45 Taunt – Beau De Brizais WON 3/1 / Beataboutthebush UP
Following on from my AW-Southwell post (found in free reports&systems tab above) I will put up any ‘qualifiers’
US Bred Angle (14/1< guide)
2.30 South – Pearl Spectre UP
Southwell Sires (use as starting point maybe)
12.00 – Blythe Prince UP
2.30 – Pearl Spectre UP / Zaeem UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
2.20 Taunt – Somerset Lias – 6/1 PU –(haha,oh that price was rather short!! One of those where you just smile, or you cry. No easy lead,sulked,win didn’t inspire him LTO,back to usual self. Awful. Moving on) this price seems a bit big to my eyes given I think/hope/expect that they will try and make all with him again here, given there are no other confirmed front runners on recent runs. He got to the front the last day after the first few fences and they didn’t see which way he went, winning for the first time in this new equipment combo. Winning may have done him the world of good and he could get this lot on the stretch. There is a slight niggle over the trip but he has ran well at it before and if he can dictate that will help. It doesn’t look a strong race and he is taking advantage of the new ratings rule whereby he can run at this level despite being 1lb over the band. The horse he thumped that day, who was getting an 8lb swing and may have come on for the run, is now a NR. That leaves the Fergal horse who is being smashed as if he is going to romp home – given he could have any amount in hand, and the fact the trainer can ready them (4/18 with chasers 365+ days off) I can see his case. But Somerset will test his jumping/fitness/soundness. Trehan Cross looks the only other one of interest to me if repeating/building on that last run. The rest look out of form having had a quick glance. I have had 1/2 point on at 6s, I should be entertained turning into the home straight with any luck. After that, who knows.
On a quiet enough day I will have a look at my guide to see if there are any qualifiers…
(ratings pointers… H3 = Top 3 HRB / G3 = Top 3 Geegeez Speed/Dr Peter May)
12.00 – Dancing Alpha – H3 2nd 3/1
2.00 – Oscars Journey UP / Sir Geoffrey UP (missed him earlier)
2.30 – Philba H3 2nd 8/1 / Mithqaal WON 5/1
3.30 – Ralphy Lad G3 UP
3.40 – Awaayil
That’s all for today.