TTP Jumps Notes: 19/12/16 (COMPLETE)

qualifiers+ratings+notes… (late addition as of 8.30am to 1.20 Ayr…)

NOTE: Missed one in 1.20 on first run through Sunday afternoon…

 

Qualifiers/ratings for now, any further notes to be added Monday morning…

Only one main meeting for us on Monday, with some ‘qualifiers’ against the Hereford notes to track/use as you please. These stats were from before the track closed for 3 years and at this stage are a guide,as they may be for the next couple of years before we have some more data to look at.

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Results Update

I will update results for the week for tomorrow as usual (from Mon 12th-18th – which marks 3 montsh I think since first posted) but I have had a look at the results of the Ratings Pointers for the first full week, from 12th to Sun 18th… (and my word…)

So, here we are looking at all TTP stats qualifiers that were also in the top 3 ratings of HorseRaceBase and Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings.

I don’t believe HRB ratings take account of ‘speed’ albeit I am not sure. Geegeez uses Dr Peter May’s speed ratings but I don’t believe they take account of any trainer stats/patters/track form etc. So, in theory, this approach should improve on the basic performance of the stats.

I can’t think this first week will be the norm- these stats will drop down a tad, but, the ratings stats for those 7 days…

  1. ALL Ratings Qualifiers Backed Multiple Times (so a horse backed twice if appearing on both HRB or Geegeez top 3): 35 bets / 18 wins / 22 places (inc wins) = +59.39 points
  2. ALL TOP RATED Qualifiers (backed multiple) = 10 bets / 7 wins / 7 places / +28.22 points 
  3. All Ratings Qualifiers Backed ONCE (qualify at least once against a rating,not backed multiple times if qualifies twice): 26 bets / 12 wins / 15 places / +44.17 points 
  4. HorseRaceBase Top 3 Rated (inc top): 9/17,11p = +31.47 points
  5. Geegeez Speed Top 3 Rated (inc top): 9/18,11p = +28 points

Blimey. We shall see how that continues moving forwards. That could be an outlier of a week – I would have expected/been happy with around a 25% win SR across the various permutaions. Hitting around 50% win strike rates is just madness, and well, if that continues, then Merry Christmas!

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AYR

1.20 

Willie Hall (hncp c) 

NOTE: trainer 0/5,0p last 30 days albeit that is no reason not to back a horse for me. This old boy looks like he may have had enough of the game but IF he were to ever to repeat those two runs from January this year he would go close in a race like this- shame there are not 3 places to aim at but he is Top rated on geegeez speed and I can’t leave those unbacked personally. He did make an error the last day before the PU and maybe that was the reason. 16f, in heavy, around Ayr seem to be his favoured conditions and if this near 13yo is ever to win again, you would think this is where he would do it. The fav looks strong but does drop in trip, and has heavy ground to deal with – I have seen better 8/15 shots albeit he may just lead all the way.

 

2.30

Hartforth (hncp h) WON 50/1 (150/1 BFSP gulp)

Another Mattie (micro – class) UP 14/1>33/1

Conquer Gold (micro – going) UP 16/1>20/1

 

NOTE: Hartforth- trainer 1/4 in recently but the horse was out of form when last seen. Conditions fine for him if fit enough- he is now 0/4,1p 121-365 days and maybe he will come on for it. he is also rock bottom of the HRB ratings for the race which is never a great sign, but not impossible. 0/22,6p when sent off 14/1 or bigger.

Another Mattie… Alexander in form 4/19,7p last 14 days. All race conditions look fine and this is a drop in class. Heavy is no problem and he stays well enough. Price seems to be based on that very poor run LTO. He may come on for it- well he needs to. And it was rather poor, but his place on the ratings and his price made him an EW bet for me. Price is massive if returning to his best- big if it seems,but conditions ideal. Conquer Gold- Richards in form also, 3/13,3p last 14 days. Market may guide and at the moment indicating he may struggle. But, horse is unexposed, ground is fine, looks like he stays, and hard to rule out on that basis. Will probably come on for that run and will appreciate the step up in trip. Wouldn’t be shocked if he were a ‘non ratings’ winner, but does need to leave that last run well behind,and he wasn’t exactly unfancied there.

 

3.00

Top Billing (micro – going) 2nd 7/1>3/1 (bumped into one there,win not far away)

NOTE: Richards again. All conditions fine for the horse- taking a roll of the dice on the returning cheekpieces doing the trick- on for first time since 2014 and he has ran well in them. If they work, he goes very close here. Conditions look ideal, albeit he stays further- which if this is really testing is no bad thing. If they don’t work then he won’t be winning. Given the start to the ‘ratings pointers’ , leaving them unbacked doesn’t seem too wise.

 

3.30

Better Getalong (NHF) WON 5/2

NOTE: Richards again. Horse is unexposed and if here to run well, should do so. Ran an ok second in a bumper when last seen.

 

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HEREFORD

These are for interest and regardless of whether they all hack up will NOT be included in the results this season. The did find a 6/1 winner at the last meeting for Venetia from a 3 qualifiers or so from memory…

12.35

Bennachie (hncp c) UP

2.40

Centurius (all hncps) UP

3.40

Just A Thought (NHF) WON 5/2

 

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RATINGS POINTERS

I am keeping proper track of these and will update results from last Monday given we have now had a full week- albeit they did very well the few days before that when I started. I am rather excited at how they have started and they are certainly proving a good starting point, and end point for some. We do need some more time/evidence before we make any firm conclusions but for now so far so good.

Ayr…

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

None.

Top 3 Rated (so in effect 2nd or 3rd rated)

3.30 A – Better Getalong WON 5/2

 

Geegeez Speed 

Top Rated

1.20 A – Willie Hall – UP

2.30 A – Another Mattie – UP

Top 3 Rated

3.00 A – Top Billing – 2nd 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. Hi josh.
    Probably being a bit thick here,but could you explain what you mean by backed multiple times in the results section above.
    My apologies for being a bit dim.

    1. Hi .. no need to apologise… I often confuse myself and I can struggle for clairty…

      So, that refers to a horse that qualified against both HorseRaceBase top 3, and Geegeez Speed Top 3- so appears twice on the ratings. Those results cover if you then backed it twice, because it qualified twice. Hope that makes sense.
      Some may just back them once, even if they appear on both HRB and Geegeez ratings.. hence why i have recorded the results as I do.

      If those results continue a case can be made to just back all qualifiers, 1 point on nose say, however many times they appear (can only qualify a max of twice- once on HRB, once on Geegeez)

      So looking today..there are NO multiple qualifiers.(a horse appearing on both ratings) IF say Willie Hall was also in HRB Top 3, that is a ‘multiple’ qualifier.

      Hope that makes sense!

  2. Hi Josh, Betfair edge is offering 7/1 Willie Hall to 3 places…..big drop though.

    I think as regards your dilemma about HRT and Gee GEE’s….Hindsight is a marvellous thing, but maybe we should have been a bit more circumspect….because to much publicity will ruin it….Yet conversely pull in more members for yourself…Very Tricky once you rock the boat.
    Some clever Arse will invent it as his/her system…That’s happened before.
    Best of luck Josh/Solomon [wisdom needed lol]

    1. Hi Tony, ah, the old boy just seems very out of form/slow! Didn’t jump with any fluency. right to be skeptical about the fav though, didn’t jump that well either.

      It’s not about publicity etc, I am open and frank with those in Geegeez Towers- it is very much an issue specifically with the speed ratings which are licensed from someone else, and that data is viewed a bit differently than the ‘instant expert tab’ etc, which in effect is more widely available data just presented in a more accessible way, as is all of their other stats etc.

      Solutions will be found, I hope!

      Someone else can invent as their own system, but I am sure we would be able to spot those soon enough. And we are still in test phase, the wheels may come of!

  3. Hi Josh
    I had a feeling this may crop up about use of ratings,
    and I noted on your free site that somebody said put
    the membership price up. The problem with that is
    like myself and probably quite a lot of the other
    members is we are members of geegeez or HRB or both
    and if you put your prices up that means we are paying twice
    for the use of the ratings. I trust you will sort this difficult
    situation out in your own innimitable way.
    Cheers
    Dave

    1. Hi David,

      Yep, I was a bit naive on that front in truth. I am in contact with the right people and discussions are under way. I am hopeful a solution will be found.

      Putting prices up wasn’t anywhere near the top of my thinking at the moment and I will see what happens as a result of those discussions. Any price increases won’t be happening this jumps season – and would only ever be considered in relation to performance/my costs/solid results…

      It has only been one week of the ‘ratings pointers’ and we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves. And, my use of those ratings in respect to these posts is very limited in its scope.

      Josh

    1. wallop!! Oh my. A nice return for my £5EW there. I couldn’t let him go off unbacked at 50s. Not all about the rating, eh! Wasn’t impossible on paper, enough bits and pieces and at 50s you can overlook plenty. A nice return for the ‘back the lot’ followers.

      1. I had a similar bet last night, then a couple of quid at silly odds on the exchange. The kids are now getting two oranges for Christmas. Maybe even a wee bunch of grapes.

        Thanks Josh!

        1. oh bugger… yea he was 150/1 BFSP. Blimey. And bugger! Mine was a last min- oh, what if he places, had better throw something at him, for a nice place return! Oh to have put £5 on BFSP. Never thought. Much to learn!

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