NOTE: Missed one in 1.20 on first run through Sunday afternoon…
Qualifiers/ratings for now, any further notes to be added Monday morning…
Only one main meeting for us on Monday, with some ‘qualifiers’ against the Hereford notes to track/use as you please. These stats were from before the track closed for 3 years and at this stage are a guide,as they may be for the next couple of years before we have some more data to look at.
I will update results for the week for tomorrow as usual (from Mon 12th-18th – which marks 3 montsh I think since first posted) but I have had a look at the results of the Ratings Pointers for the first full week, from 12th to Sun 18th… (and my word…)
So, here we are looking at all TTP stats qualifiers that were also in the top 3 ratings of HorseRaceBase and Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings.
I don’t believe HRB ratings take account of ‘speed’ albeit I am not sure. Geegeez uses Dr Peter May’s speed ratings but I don’t believe they take account of any trainer stats/patters/track form etc. So, in theory, this approach should improve on the basic performance of the stats.
I can’t think this first week will be the norm- these stats will drop down a tad, but, the ratings stats for those 7 days…
- ALL Ratings Qualifiers Backed Multiple Times (so a horse backed twice if appearing on both HRB or Geegeez top 3): 35 bets / 18 wins / 22 places (inc wins) = +59.39 points
- ALL TOP RATED Qualifiers (backed multiple) = 10 bets / 7 wins / 7 places / +28.22 points
- All Ratings Qualifiers Backed ONCE (qualify at least once against a rating,not backed multiple times if qualifies twice): 26 bets / 12 wins / 15 places / +44.17 points
- HorseRaceBase Top 3 Rated (inc top): 9/17,11p = +31.47 points
- Geegeez Speed Top 3 Rated (inc top): 9/18,11p = +28 points
Blimey. We shall see how that continues moving forwards. That could be an outlier of a week – I would have expected/been happy with around a 25% win SR across the various permutaions. Hitting around 50% win strike rates is just madness, and well, if that continues, then Merry Christmas!
Willie Hall (hncp c)
NOTE: trainer 0/5,0p last 30 days albeit that is no reason not to back a horse for me. This old boy looks like he may have had enough of the game but IF he were to ever to repeat those two runs from January this year he would go close in a race like this- shame there are not 3 places to aim at but he is Top rated on geegeez speed and I can’t leave those unbacked personally. He did make an error the last day before the PU and maybe that was the reason. 16f, in heavy, around Ayr seem to be his favoured conditions and if this near 13yo is ever to win again, you would think this is where he would do it. The fav looks strong but does drop in trip, and has heavy ground to deal with – I have seen better 8/15 shots albeit he may just lead all the way.
Hartforth (hncp h) WON 50/1 (150/1 BFSP gulp)
Another Mattie (micro – class) UP 14/1>33/1
Conquer Gold (micro – going) UP 16/1>20/1
NOTE: Hartforth- trainer 1/4 in recently but the horse was out of form when last seen. Conditions fine for him if fit enough- he is now 0/4,1p 121-365 days and maybe he will come on for it. he is also rock bottom of the HRB ratings for the race which is never a great sign, but not impossible. 0/22,6p when sent off 14/1 or bigger.
Another Mattie… Alexander in form 4/19,7p last 14 days. All race conditions look fine and this is a drop in class. Heavy is no problem and he stays well enough. Price seems to be based on that very poor run LTO. He may come on for it- well he needs to. And it was rather poor, but his place on the ratings and his price made him an EW bet for me. Price is massive if returning to his best- big if it seems,but conditions ideal. Conquer Gold- Richards in form also, 3/13,3p last 14 days. Market may guide and at the moment indicating he may struggle. But, horse is unexposed, ground is fine, looks like he stays, and hard to rule out on that basis. Will probably come on for that run and will appreciate the step up in trip. Wouldn’t be shocked if he were a ‘non ratings’ winner, but does need to leave that last run well behind,and he wasn’t exactly unfancied there.
Top Billing (micro – going) 2nd 7/1>3/1 (bumped into one there,win not far away)
NOTE: Richards again. All conditions fine for the horse- taking a roll of the dice on the returning cheekpieces doing the trick- on for first time since 2014 and he has ran well in them. If they work, he goes very close here. Conditions look ideal, albeit he stays further- which if this is really testing is no bad thing. If they don’t work then he won’t be winning. Given the start to the ‘ratings pointers’ , leaving them unbacked doesn’t seem too wise.
Better Getalong (NHF) WON 5/2
NOTE: Richards again. Horse is unexposed and if here to run well, should do so. Ran an ok second in a bumper when last seen.
These are for interest and regardless of whether they all hack up will NOT be included in the results this season. The did find a 6/1 winner at the last meeting for Venetia from a 3 qualifiers or so from memory…
Bennachie (hncp c) UP
Centurius (all hncps) UP
Just A Thought (NHF) WON 5/2
I am keeping proper track of these and will update results from last Monday given we have now had a full week- albeit they did very well the few days before that when I started. I am rather excited at how they have started and they are certainly proving a good starting point, and end point for some. We do need some more time/evidence before we make any firm conclusions but for now so far so good.
Top 3 Rated (so in effect 2nd or 3rd rated)
3.30 A – Better Getalong WON 5/2
1.20 A – Willie Hall – UP
2.30 A – Another Mattie – UP
Top 3 Rated
3.00 A – Top Billing – 2nd