FREE DAILY POST: 15/12/16 (complete)

TIP + …Jumps angles+ 20/1 stats/angles horse..

Well as I write, before the Kempton ‘qualifiers’ Wednesday’s post (update,1/3,+8 points…) did it’s job in highlighting various winners from my ramblings/notes and the Jumps Angles. I hope you may have backed one or more of them. Of course having highlighted the form of Hobbs/Johnson it was somewhat predictable that I didn’t have a penny on their 25/1 winner, making it a double on the day for them! Next time, eh!? (always next time)

Proud Gamble was an example of that age old conundrum of assessing value – and I have been awful at that the last twice having missed two potential ‘official tipped’ winners at 20/1 and 3/1 in the last two days having thought their prices were generous in the context of their chance. I can live with not tipping PG as I think I get more wrong at that end (under 4/1 say) than I get right over time, probably leading to a loss. Anyway, I sounded confident in the write up and I was. He won it well and made 3/1 look decent. But, I know some of you backed him which is the main thing- and is why I write as I do. And all of that above is always easy to say after they have hacked up – i need to start doing that before the bloody race. Still, at least I am reading them a bit better than I was I think.

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NOTE: I will be travelling back to the family home in Suffolk during Thursday afternoon/early evening. I suspect any content for Friday will be posted Friday morning albeit I will get a ‘holding’ post up so you can chat amongst yourselves 🙂

 

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TIPS

1.40

UMBERTO DOLIVATE – 1 point win – 5/1 (general) UP

 

I have convinced myself that 5/1 is fair here for this one’s chance- he won LTO really well on ground that was far from ideal. He was pestered to a point there but then pretty much made all. I think he could be in my fav place here- leading- with no excuse. He will prefer the slightly softer conditions and does stay well enough. He has won from OR130 before and maybe while not as good as 2014, I won’t be using this rating of 116 as an excuse. He attacked his fences the last day and to my eyes won with a tonne in hand.

Ruby Walsh was on ‘the veridct’ the other day and they were disucssing As De Mee and specifically his ‘ears’. To be honest it isn’t something I had looked at/thought about before but I should do some reading on it. Anyway he had the firm impression, given they were forward/pricked/engaged crossing the line that he had loads left in the tank. I think Umberto may have done also – ears pricked over the last and crossing the line to my dodgy eye. Anyway, that is an aside and I won’t be tipping on the basis of horse’s ears, but I found it interesting. Any ear thoughts??

So, he stays, he likes conditions, RH undulating tracks are no problem, he could get an easy enough lead here and he jumps well, usually. The rating won’t be an excuse and I think it is of more importance that he sticks to C4 here. He has the same actual weight on his back. Now, the question is about his consistency. I don’t know what happened after his last win in 2014 but maybe they changed something and he came back a better horse the last day. The last time he won he rattled off three in a row. The trainer is also 7/23,11p with last time out winners in the last 2 years also.

Given all of the above I thought 5s was worth a stab. Maybe he is now best caught fresh and maybe something will get him over the last couple. But, there is a chance his jumping keeps him a few lenghths clear and he just keeps galloping, forcing errors from those in behind…

Of the rest…

Well, none of the above could matter a jot depending on what Yanmere does. He could be a beast. He could now find his level. The last day the race leaders fell into a muddy hole and this horse does nothing but stay. He got outpaced there over 25f in very soft ground. He is also going RH which is something he needs to prove- well it is a question mark. He could still have plenty in hand and this track/finish, will suit. Clearly I won’t be shocked if he wins this, he is expected to. If he can hold his position then I am in trouble. Unlike the last day I don’t think Umberto will be stopping in front of him and i suspect this will be the hardest he may have to work for a win. He is massive though and may make these fences look like fixed brush hurdles.

Royal Native- I backed/tipped the last day in part due to his record fresh. Could you argue, given that early enough depart, that he is still ‘fresh’, maybe. He is now 1/5 over fences and there was no excuse for that error the last day and I think his jumping may be put under more pressure here- surrounded by more horses, and possibly on ground slightly softer than ideal. He could take this, but he is around the same price as the selection and he looks more sloid to my eyes. RN has a bit to prove now, including a second run after a break. The trainer is in form and he may well relish this stamina test but he can beat me now I think. I will watch more annoying ‘not tipped’ winners this season – and have done recently. Will I be able to resist some ‘just in case’ change on him? Hmmm.

The rest have plenty to prove and I think one of those three should be winning. Although Desert Joe is lightly raced for his age but I want to see a bit more. Not a shock winner and he came on for his debut run last season. This is a class drop also but I would like to see more and he has yet to build on his novice handicap chase win at Leicester. If today isn’t his day he is one to watch- that dropping mark and opportunity to now race in C4 will see him in the winners enclosure at some point no doubt.

The rest really do have plenty to prove- Amidon needs the visor to work as he has looked really out of sorts and other headgear doesnt look to have done the trick. If it works he could run well but that is a risk. Emma Soda usually needs her seasonal reappearance as does Sunny Legend, who has a stamina question- he can try and lead but I think Umberto is just better, and fitter, and younger and should be able to see him off. Midnight Request has a very lenghthy absensce to overcome and the yard is cold at the moment. I think this race is too deep for Kilcascan and he looks up against it also.

So, I suppose there are 4 who this looks between. I have gone with the in form front runner who could get these on the stretch and hopefully keep galloping up the hill. Fingers crossed he can get an easy lead, which is always useful. The fav is an obvious danger, as is Royal Native if he runs his race/jumps. Desert Joe may play a role but I want to see a bit more before getting involved. Maybe his next run could be the time to catch him, provided he runs well here.

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JUMPS ANGLES

December Trainers

1.00 Exeter- Wolf Trap UP

5.15 Chelm – Plus Night (14/1<) UP

 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

1.55 Tramore- Bothair Clei – 20/1 … UP any Geegeez Gold users out there will have noticed this one’s suitability to race conditions where seemingly everything else has a question or four to answer. This one is 1lb below his last winning mark and is a proved heavy ground horse. Class, track, trip and distance are all perfect for him it seems. No other horse in this race as proven winning form in the ground, class and distance. Indeed only two in here have winning form in heavy. Now, it could be his next start his the one to catch him – he has won on his 3rd start both the last two seasons so something to keep an eye on. But, he reappeared over an inadequate 16f the last day and he should come on for it to a point. He is 11 but so many in here also look out of sorts/unproven on deep ground. The main danger is the fav who if handling heavy (unknown) may well sluice up for his red hot trainer. But, 20s allows an EW stab and that is how I have played it. IF fit enough to run his race, I expect him to be close to placing – and if the fav falters, you never know. If could be a fun 20 mins from 1.40 onwards… fingers crossed.

 

Jonjo/Coleman (6/20,11p last 14 days) and Hobbs/Johnson (6/22,8p) continue in decent enough form. having highlighted them yesterday.

The former team up with Lithic at Exeter, 1pm, and Powerful Symbol 3.10.

Hobbs/Johnson have Earth Lady in the 1. 30 who seems unfancied but I have yet to look at any of those races. Use that info as you please.

 

That will be all for today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. Paddy Watch

    A winner today for Paddy but no real value there,one for tomorrow

    1.00 Exeter Lord of The Island 1/2pt win 4/1 Bet 365

    Running Total 31.5

    In the 2.35 at Exeter cannot leave a 12/1 George horse (Ballinvarrig)run with nothing on it,hasnt won for a long time now,a bit more rain would help his cause along with Lord Of The Island

    1. Now that the ground has gone soft Ballinvarig has absolutely plum conditions. (2/10, 5p on Soft, 12 in 2 visits to track, 12 over 2m3.5f, 12 in class 4 chase handicaps, 4lbs below last win)

  2. Towcester 1.40

    My note on Royal Native
    Exeter canceled 2 Dec 16
    Appears OK FTO
    Was Hurdler, now 4X Chases
    H TS 120 Potential Improver
    2 points EW

    I note that the price is 4.5/1, looks short, have not assessed the race yet

  3. As an each way stab, i like What A Scorcher in the 1.00 Exeter, 16/1 available. May improve on previous form.

    On the AW I like Merriment over 1M 4F in the 2.20 at Newcastle, 6/1 now.

  4. Two against the field
    Towcester 3.20 Bumper

    Jupiter’s Gift 16/1

    Sire
    Scorpion (IRE)
    2017 STUD FEE: GBP 3,000
    14-y-o b horse PEDIGREE: Montjeu (IRE) (11.8f) — Ardmelody (GB) (Law Society (USA) (11.6f)) STANDING: Shade Oak Stud (GB) SIRE COMMENT: top-class mid-distance performer at 3-5, family of Ardross, dual-purpose sire; good young NH sire TRAINER: A P O’Brien OWNER: Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor

    Dame
    Presenting Ally (IRE)
    unraced but her Sire is

    Presenting (GB)
    2017 STUD FEE: Believed 10K

    24-y-o br horse (14.2f) AEI 0.28
    PEDIGREE: Mtoto (GB) (11.5f) — D´Azy (GB) (Persian Bold (GB) (10.5f))
    STANDING: Glenview Stud (IRE)
    SIRE COMMENT: useful 8f 2yo and top-class 12f 3yo, multiple champion jumps sire, progeny inc Denman
    TRAINER: John Gosden
    OWNER: George Strawbridge
    BREEDER: George Strawbridge

    ————————–

    Schap 12/1

    Sire
    Schiaparelli (GER)

    13-y-o ch horse AEI 0.01
    PEDIGREE: Monsun (GER) (12.1f) — Sacarina (GB) (Old Vic (GB) (12.9f))
    STANDING: Overbury Stud (GB)
    SIRE COMMENT: top-class 11f-2m winner at 3-6, outstanding Ger pedigree; dual-purpose, first 4yos 2016
    TRAINER: Saeed bin Suroor
    OWNER: Godolphin
    BREEDER: Gestut Karlshof

    Flat placings 1112161/831111/20/2d11312/
    LIFETIME RECORD STARTS WINS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS BEST TS BEST RPR OR† Flat Turf 21 12 3 3 £733,003 £881,952 111 120 117 Stakes 19 10 3 3 £727,693 £876,642 111 120 117 Rules Races 21 12 3 3 £733,003 £881,952 — — —

    (Schiaparelli (GER) is one of my favourite Sires)

    Dame
    Royal Keel unraced, Her Sire Long Leave was raced only three times (poor) but came from good stock.

    Died as a 14-y-o (03Feb88 b h)
    Night Shift (USA) (8.0f) — Stuff And Nonsense (Crooner (10.2f))
    Trainer R F Johnson Houghton
    Owner Exors Of The Late Mrs J De Rothschild
    Breeder Mrs James A De Rothschild

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