None… the 3.20 looks decent and I think Proud Gamble WON is going to win it – i think he is the best chaser in that field for me. If you can get 3/1 I wouldn’t put you off. He is a TTP qualifier, is top rated on both HRB and Geegeez Speed (my TTP ‘ratings pointers’ 2/3 on Tuesday,another +5.5 points to the the pot, or +11 points if you backed those that qualified against both ratings) and looks to have everything in his favour. This is (isnt) a better race than the one he ran in the last day and if he has held his form, he should be hard to beat again. I can’t see why the one above him is shorter – he beat him well enough when they last met here. I suppose the ‘weights and measures’ traders think the 4lb relative difference may swing it. I don’t think it will make much difference and the bowl of egg is at the ready. He wont mind what the weather does either and there could be enough pace on here for him to track. The trainer is in form also.
I am reluctant to tip at that price- he is a hold up horse at the end of the day and in any case the price may or may not disappear.
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– LIVE TEST
2.35 Newb – Very Live 3rd 10/1 / Cepage WON 4/1
2.00 Newb – Three Faces West – WON 9/2 > 7/2
2.35 Newb – Keep Moving UP
7.10 Kemp – Cherry Cool
NTD Unexposed Chasers (any odds)
1.30 Newb – Goodbye Dancer
Tom George Chasers
2.35 Newb- Smoking Jacket- UP
V Williams Chasers November (tracking Dec)
2.35 Newb – Cepage WON 4/1
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
A few horses stand out today and could be worthy of a closer look…
Firstly three who qualify against my AW Stats Pack… I won’t reveal the stats but they are decent/interesting enough and both of these trainers are ‘in form’ also, which helps…
6.10 – Dutiful Son and Presumido go for Dow here… The former in particular looks interesting given it is his second run after a break and he takes a big drop in class. Morris up also. Interesting. I wouldn’t say you could totally rule out the latter either,albeit more questions to answer to my dodgy AW eyes.
7.40 – Newton Cross is another qualifier – now he may have needed the run LTO. Or he just is badly out of form. But he is a CD winner and when on song usually runs his race in these conditions. Maybe an interesting one EW. Given this angle is related to the jockey, it could be of some significance he is back on.
I have never really focused on Trainer/Jockey ‘in form’ combos before but I may start having a closer look as a ‘way in’ given the tools at my disposal…
Messrs Hobbs/Johnson and Jonjo/Coleman have been in red hot form the last two weeks… 6/19,8p (+14) and 6/20,10p (+17) respectfully.
Hobbs/Johnson have 4 runners at Newbury and all have some sort of question. I suppose Three Faces West WON may be the most interesting but that is a hot race, he will try and get them on the stretch though. Probably the most interesting, albeit an eye on whether Mister Big can come on from his last run in the 12.55, seems unfancied.
Jonjo/Coleman interest me more today. They team up with 3, one seems out of sorts completely, but Westendorf looks of some interest in the 3.10- albeit it looks a hot race and that fav ran well in a race that many are talking about ‘the Jenkins’ race- The Tizzard horse that finished behind him that day has since won at Cheltenham….
1.30 – MONBEG GOLD (UP, very poor. moving on, swiftly) looks the most interesting from all of those. He ran well on seasonal reappearance the last day, sandwiched between two subsequent winners, looks decent enough form. A former point winner and in first time cheekpieces there could be plenty more to come at some point. Jonjo is only 3/32 here in handicap chases but having had a flick through, all three winners have been in novice handicap chases- such as this. Interesting. Anyway, given the form of the yard (better than it has been) and with Coleman (actually 4/9,6p in handicaps last 14 days) and the horses upside potential, I thought he looked of interest. The Hendo fav WON and the Nicholls horse look the dangers and you would think one of them is winning this.
As always do with those thoughts as you please!