FREE DAILY POST: 14/12/16 (complete)

Jumps angles + Stats/Angles horses of interest…

 

TIPS

None… the 3.20 looks decent and I think Proud Gamble WON is going to win it – i think he is the best chaser in that field for me. If you can get 3/1 I wouldn’t put you off. He is a TTP qualifier, is top rated on both HRB and Geegeez Speed (my TTP ‘ratings pointers’ 2/3 on Tuesday,another +5.5 points to the the pot, or +11 points if you backed those that qualified against both ratings) and looks to have everything in his favour. This is (isnt) a better race than the one he ran in the last day and if he has held his form, he should be hard to beat again. I can’t see why the one above him is shorter – he beat him well enough when they last met here. I suppose the ‘weights and measures’ traders think the 4lb relative difference may swing it. I don’t think it will make much difference and the bowl of egg is at the ready. He wont mind what the weather does either and there could be enough pace on here for him to track. The trainer is in form also.

I am reluctant to tip at that price- he is a hold up horse at the end of the day and in any case the price may or may not disappear.

 

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– LIVE TEST

Chase

2.35 Newb – Very Live 3rd 10/1 / Cepage WON 4/1

December Trainers

2.00 Newb – Three Faces West – WON 9/2 > 7/2

2.35 Newb – Keep Moving UP

7.10 Kemp – Cherry Cool

 

NTD Unexposed Chasers (any odds)

1.30 Newb – Goodbye Dancer

 

Tom George Chasers

2.35 Newb- Smoking Jacket- UP

 

V Williams Chasers November (tracking Dec)

2.35 Newb – Cepage WON 4/1

 

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

A few horses stand out today and could be worthy of a closer look…

Firstly three who qualify against my AW Stats Pack… I won’t reveal the stats but they are decent/interesting enough and both of these trainers are ‘in form’ also, which helps…

6.10 – Dutiful Son and Presumido go for Dow here… The former in particular looks interesting given it is his second run after a break and he takes a big drop in class. Morris up also. Interesting. I wouldn’t say you could totally rule out the latter either,albeit more questions to answer to my dodgy AW eyes.

7.40 – Newton Cross is another qualifier – now he may have needed the run LTO. Or he just is badly out of form. But he is a CD winner and when on song usually runs his race in these conditions. Maybe an interesting one EW. Given this angle is related to the jockey, it could be of some significance he is back on.

I have never really focused on Trainer/Jockey ‘in form’ combos before but I may start having a closer look as a ‘way in’ given the tools at my disposal…

Messrs Hobbs/Johnson and Jonjo/Coleman have been in red hot form the last two weeks… 6/19,8p (+14) and 6/20,10p (+17) respectfully.

Hobbs/Johnson have 4 runners at Newbury and all have some sort of question. I suppose Three Faces West WON may be the most interesting but that is a hot race, he will try and get them on the stretch though. Probably the most interesting, albeit an eye on whether Mister Big can come on from his last run in the 12.55, seems unfancied.

Jonjo/Coleman interest me more today. They team up with 3, one seems out of sorts completely, but Westendorf looks of some interest in the 3.10- albeit it looks a hot race and that fav ran well in a race that many are talking about ‘the Jenkins’ race- The Tizzard horse that finished behind him that day has since won at Cheltenham….

1.30 – MONBEG GOLD (UP, very poor. moving on, swiftly) looks the most interesting from all of those. He ran well on seasonal reappearance the last day, sandwiched between two subsequent winners, looks decent enough form. A former point winner and in first time cheekpieces there could be plenty more to come at some point. Jonjo is only 3/32 here in handicap chases but having had a flick through, all three winners have been in novice handicap chases- such as this. Interesting. Anyway, given the form of the yard (better than it has been) and with Coleman (actually 4/9,6p in handicaps last 14 days) and the horses upside potential, I thought he looked of interest. The Hendo fav  WON and the Nicholls horse look the dangers and you would think one of them is winning this.

 

As always do with those thoughts as you please!

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. Hi,

    I think that Aurillac in the 1.30 at Newbury looks interesting at 8/1 each way. Suited by such a distance I think?

    Proud Gamble at 3/1 seems ok, 3.20 Mus.

    1. I agree Martin. Runner up franked the form last weekend and you would think the 9lb swing with the winner will be enough to overcome an 8 length defecit particularly at the prices since at 8s you can play e/w. Biggest danger is likely the Nicholls horse.

  2. Hi Josh / all

    Just had a chance to watch back the racing today and will certainly give another chance to Crosse Fire totally missing the break and finishing just behind the bunch just have to wait for another 5F Southwell opportunity, as for Llewellyn had his ideal conditions broke well no excuses just out of form or not as good as he was finished tamely. Bring on a Spinner done the job well the headgear may well have helped too and saw out the trip good….On to tomorrow and one i want to be with

    3.00 Lingfield – Pinkie Brown 8.0 (Best odds Bet Bright)

    This lad is lightly raced with 2 flat runs in August sandwiched between 9 hurdle & chase runs his flat runs so far have seen him beat 1 home and been beat a total of 56.6 lengths, He returned after his flat runs in October to go chasing and has took to it well with 2 wins, 1x 2nd and a first fence faller at Cheltenham and is running off 127. What surprises and intrigues me is why Neil Mullholland would send this back to the flat when he has a fledgling chase career ahead. So if we look at his chase mark of 127 that would usually convert to 95 rated on the flat which on face value would see this winning by half the track, but clearly the horse hasn’t shown anything like this on the flat and the likelyhood is he is a lot lower than this but an 80 rated horse would be good enough to take this maiden. The David Simcock trained Adelene is hot favourite after a couple of 2nds and is rated 76 which leaves a lot of scope for Pinkie to overturn her. What we also need to consider is that Pinkie is now racing over 1M 4F compared to the 1M & 1M 2F trips he has tried previously and it is his first try at Lingfield in which his sire “Gentlewave’s” progeny has a 3 run, 2 win, 2 place record over C & D. I think this is a clever bit of placing by the trainer in what is an ordinary maiden…….The old boy Desert strike runs again in the 2.25 after winning for us last time out under the same conditions that he has a 100% SR in,Class 6, 6F, Lingfield, He has been raised 61B to 69 but has won off 78 around here but he has stall 11 to contend with and it looks like a contested lead too with lots of pace in the race so will just cheer him on with no money down tomorrow

    Best of Luck
    Steve

      1. Hi Jack

        If we look at Dark Angel between 1M 6F to 2M 1/2F at Dundalk, Lingfield, Southwell, Wolverhampton & Chelmsford we have the following figures:

        29 runs, 10 wins, 16 places, 34.48% win SR, 55.17% place SR

        If we then break it down for each distance we have the following:

        1M 6F – 11 runs, 5 wins, 9 places, 45.45% win SR, 81.82% place SR
        1M 7 1/2F – 4 runs, 0 wins, 1 place, 0% win SR, 25.0% place SR
        2 M – 9 runs, 3 wins, 4 places, 33% win SR, 44.44% place SR
        2M 1/2F – 5 runs, 2 wins, 2 places, 40% win SR, 40% place SR

        Hope this helps

        Cheers
        Steve

  3. Newbury 3.40 Bumper

    Rosie Lea (3YO) is related to
    {Manduro (GER) (11.2f) — Saralea (FR) (Sillery (USA) (12.0f)}

    Woolstone One (4YO) >>>>> 2wins from 3 in bumpers,
    {Authorized (IRE) (11.7f) — Saralea (FR) (Sillery (USA) (12.0f)}

    Same dame, Saralea (Note FTO & Value of races)
    First Year Form
    05Oct97 Lon 8GF 2yG1 89K 8-11 8/10 (6¾L Loving Claim 8-11) 192/10 Dominique Boeuf

    23Aug97 Dea 8Gd 2yL 44K 8-8 1/10 (1½L Milligan 8-11) Dominique Boeuf

    05Aug97 Dea 7Gd 2y 20K 8-12 3/7 (1¾L Worms 8-11) Dominique Boeuf

    16Jul97 Dea 7Gd 2yL 15K 8-12 3/6 (3¼L Khumba Mela 8-12) Dominique Boeuf

    16Jun97 Cha 5.5VSft 2yL 15K 8-13 3/8 (2¼L Scenery 9-2) Dominique Boeuf

    20May97 Cha 5.5Gd 2y 10K 8-12 1/8 (2L Khumba Mela 8-12) Dominique Boeuf

    1 Rosie Lea 4/1
    2 Run for Eva 66/1
    3 Leeswood Lilly 11/2

  4. 3.10 Newbury.
    BAGS GROOVE ticks all the boxes he is a son of Oscar out of a Roselier mare
    so is bred for 3 miles plus but was finishing like a train behind the classy
    Jenkins over 2 miles.
    That form is very solid with the 5th running well yesterday to be second
    the step up to 2m3f will help but I don’t see him really coming into his own
    until he goes three miles
    So Rather than backing him today at 5/6 I would have a few quid on Anti post for the Albert Bartlett
    the 2m4f race at the festival may see him shorter in the betting but he looks a real class three mile horse to me.
    if he wins easily today he will be cut big time for the festival races.

    Another horse you must keep on side is Sundays Cork winner
    DINERVIA DES OBEAUX, out of the same sire as Apples jade her dams side is packed with stamina.
    on fast ground she will be tapped for toe by the ex flat horses like LANDOFHOPEAND GLORY
    but when the mud is flying she will be a different animal
    I am hoping LOHAG beats her a couple of times on fast ground and they then meet on heavy
    to me there would only be one winner

    1. That horse of Elliot’s certainly looked impressive at Cork on Sunday Peter. Have you spotted that Venetia runs one by Saddler Maker, out of a Dom Alco mare, at Newbury today. will be fascinating to see how he goes and whether he can add to the sire’s list of interesting horses to follow that now includes Alpha Des Obeaux, Apple’s Jade, Bristol De Mai, Bouvreuil, Messire Des Obeaux, and Dinaria Des Obeaux.

  5. I have Bags Groove in my tracker and think that the distance may suit? I want it to win today to think that it would do anything at Cheltenham come March. It is all veery well having promise but you need to show it some time.

  6. Thanks for Proud Gamble Josh had a point at 3.75 even though you didn’t tip it I could feel your confidence in that he was the most likely winner at a track he thrives at Cheers

    1. Good stuff Steve.. yep I may have had a good go – always cursing not ‘tipping’ when they do that – won as I expected him to and as such 3s fair – nothing happened in that race I didn’t think would before the race. But, I get plenty wrong at that end also- if he were a Royal McNab type, a make all horse, I would have tipped him I think- always nervous at that end when you know they will have to come through runners etc. Anyway, I have dodged a 20/1 shot and a 3/1 shot in 2 days haha- things to work on at both ends of the market!! Glad you had a piece.
      I had a small EW on your one, ran a fine enough race.

      Annoyed I didn’t have a nibble at the Hobbs 25/1 shot having highlighted the form but you cant back them all.

      Good luck if you are playing at Kempton on anything.
      Josh

      1. Ah yes that “Bags Groove” race indeed that would have been a lovely one to take away from today especially as you highlighted the recent form….Talking of which I notice you have put up two for Simon Dow tonight who has won 4 of his last 5 runners including the 50/1 shot that won the “Pinkie Brown” race stable clearly in red hot form…..Pinkie did run well just done for a turn of foot around the last bend and I think the Mullholland team thought they had the favourite covered but would have been outdone anyway by the first time out Dow horse but still EW made a small return…

        I haven’t had a thorough look at the Kempton Card but will be watching closely how Lyricas Lion runs in the 5.40 a first time out starter for M R Hoad and currently priced up at 200.0 on Betfair primarily because he is bred out of “Dragon Pulse” who has a 6 runs, 4 wins, 5 places record at Kempton so far all the runs have been over 6F & 7F and it will be interesting to see how this one fares over 1 mile I think I might throw some of your loose change down the settee at the price lol 🙂

        Cheers
        Steve

          1. Yep i sure did. When you have a dodgy AW eye always best to trust the stats! His record with that angle is rather good.

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