TTP Jumps Notes: 10/12/16 (complete)

Qualifiers+ My View+Ratings…

NOTE: No trends race this Saturday, no big 3m+ chase which I like to try and focus on. There will be a few pointers for the ‘Gold Cup’ from Cheltenham on the free post. 

 

DONCASTER

11.50

Always On The Run (hncp c) 2nd 4/1

12.20

Passmore (all hncps) UP 3/1>7/1 (market told there,very odd run to my eye)

12.55

Sego Success (all hncps + hncp c, Micro – distance) UP

Ziga Boy (all hncps + hncp c, Micro distance) 3rd 5/1

No Duffer (hncp chase) WON 10/1

1.30

Ardamir (all hncps) UP

 

My View: Quiet hard to rule any of those out at Donny given their profiles, either still lightly enough raced to improve or hardy/proven in conditions (the 12.55). Alan King and Tom George remain in great form. I think No Duffer may be the weakest in that chase – only 7 renewals to date but all won by 6-8 year olds, 9+ are now 0/31,6p. But, he is solid enough. (changed my mind a bit on him, 10s is just too big IMO) Sego Success- 3s seems short to my eyes given he would probably like it softer but he won this last year and seems to have been the target again. I quite like Ziga Boy out of the three.

 

LINGFIELD

2.15

Mister Grez (all hncps + micro class + runs this season) UP

2.50

Gores Island (hncp chase) 2nd 

3.25

Steel City (all hncps + micro TJC) 3rd 10/1

Bella (hncp hurdle) UP

 

My View: I think Gores Island and Bella look the most interesting out of these given their recent decent form. Mister Grez has that PU to overcome in what was a poor run, market may guide. He is 3/4 over hurdles though but you would fear younger legs. Not impossible though. Steel City has a few questions now also but could be an ok EW price. There is the odd bit of form that would give him a chance and the visor is back on. Need to improve though and show more.

 

CHELTENHAM 

1.15

Owen Na View (all hncps + hncp c)  UP

Eastlake (micro class) WON 33/1

 

1.50

Village Vic (all hncps + micro TJC) 3rd 

Thomas Brown (hncp chase) UP

Bouvreuil (micro – runs this season) UP

 

3.35

Land of Vic (hncp hurdle) UP 40/1

Jessber’s Dream (micro- runs this season) UP

 

***

BONUS

Ireland

2.20 Navan – Ned Stark (track, micro TJC)

 

My View: Owen Na View looks up against it,albeit I thought that about Perfect Candidate who ran better than I thought he might. But he looks up against it, as does Eastlake- I would want to see some money for him given his two PUs. Looks out of sorts. I can’t really rule out any of the three in the 1.50 albeit Village Vic falls down on a strong age trend- but those trends are there to be broken- horses ahed 9+ are now 0/61,2p in 17 years. Seems to be a race for the younger legs but we shall see. Land of Vic has been off over 600 days and I would like to see some market support I think. Jessbers is unexposed and so is Morning Herald who needs to step up, but is a big EW price at 20s.

 

***

RATINGS

A promising start for using HRB and Geegeez Speed ratings in tandem to put some more meat on the bones. 3/14,7 places, +8.5 all those that qualified against the top 3 (inc top rated) for both HRB and GS (inc Desert Cry x2). Those that qualified against both sets of top 3 ratings were 1/4,3p = +8 having 1 point on the nose, incs 13/2 2nd and 16/1 3rd.

We shall see how this develops moving forward but given that start I will carry on. Hopefully you may find it of some benefit.

 

Horse Race Base 

Top Rated

12.55 Donc – Sego Success UP

2.50 Ling – Gores Island 2nd 4/1

Top 3 Rated (in addition to those above)

3.25 Ling – Bella UP

1.50 Chelt – Village Vic 3rd 8/1

 

Geegeez Speed Ratings

Top Rated

12.55 Donc – No Duffer WON 10/1

Top 3 Rated (in addition to those above)

11.50 Ling – Always On The Run 2nd 4/1

12.55 Donc- Ziga Boy 3rd 5/1

1.50 Chelt – Village Vic 3rd 8/1

3.35 Chelt – Jessber’s Dream UP

 

***

Good luck with however you play them.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

One Response

  1. Hi guys. I know that its NH time of year and I don’t dabble much on the AW but one that catches my eye at Newcastle today is Cool Strutter 12.50. At first glance he would appear to have a bad draw but his hold up/running style makes me think that it might not be a big disadvantage. His breeding suggests that a mile is within his compass and his last run highlights that. Whatever happens today he might be worth watching ongoing.

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