14 Day FREE ACCESS…
Earlier I sent out an email about Inform racing and how you can get 14 days free access to these speed ratings. + info about Ian’s In-running trading tool also.
You can read that email HERE>>> if you missed it. The speed ratings deal I ‘negotiated’ is probably the best freebie I have sent out, worth a look.
In response to that email two of you messaged me back with thoughts on this service… One of you said you had tried the speed ratings before and while no problems with the service, couldn’t get on with them that well and are no longer a member. Fair enough.
Another, George, got in touch and said…
A Good Skin – 1.5 points win – 7/1 (general) UP
Cogry – 0.5 pt win – 8/1 (general) Fell (that’s him done for me now)
Urgh. Nothing to shout about. A Good Skin travelled well but didn’t pick up, poor effort. Poor day on the tipping front. One step forward, 5 backwards.
A Good Skin– i thought 7s looked fair enough to me (he could be joint 5/1 fav imo) given his form at the course, proven on good (and it is watered so could be fast enough) and this is more his trip. He has run well both times this season and looks ready to strike here. I fancied him the last day where he travelled really well as they were turning for home before seemingly being outpaced. But, he rallied and stayed on again, suggesting he is in form – rather than fading tamely. He has been nothing but consistent over fences really and Tom George is in fine form again. I thought from this mark, where there could be more to come, and from that end of the weights, he could do some damage here. Baring an accident I will be disappointed if I am not watching with some excitement jumping the last 2. He should be there abouts.
Cogry – well, the thought of him winning without anything on probably overrides my better judgement. He could be my new Harry The Viking (he will win a decent staying chase one day). Arguably he hasn’t had a proper race yet this season – he fell first here on reappearance but he jumped well, just over jumped it and landed steep. Back here two starts ago he got into the best rhythm he had for a while but was brought down with a circuit to go. He clearly does have jumping problems but went again early at Aintree. It is all about a clear round really- 8s, and 1/2 a point is probably just on the limit to give him one last chance. I have a niggle about the pace they may go on this ground , which could lead to further errors but they may try and make all here and keep him out of trouble. NTD doesn’t have a great record in the race- 0/17,1p, but on the flip side bottom weights (or joint bottom) have won 4 of the last 8, and there are those handicap stats for last three meetings above in that report, which indicate a great record for those returning within 10 days of last start- they could just be a fluke mind. But, he was worth a chance. Bits and pieces of form give him every chance and the Ayr run suggests good ground is fine, while softer may be ideal.
Of the rest – well who do I fear- Sausalito Sunrise is solid and won’t be far away. He lost a shoe the last day which excuses that rapid stopping I think,albeit he may have needed it also. He just has a big weight from a high mark – and I would like to think something in here could have more in hand. It is possibly he runs up to that mark and it is good enough. I think he could be better on softer also. A couple of niggles around 6/1, but he is solid. Bally Longford is the interesting one- suppose you are taking a 12/1 punt on this trip unlocking more and Tizzard did that here the last day with a similar type. But 16f to 26f is a massive hike, and I would want to see some evidence that he will stay – just too big an unknown for me, albeit if he does stay he is unexposed enough and looks interesting. Southfield Theatre does look high enough in the weights and that Wincanton race turned into a poor affair for me- he can make mistakes and again could bump into something with more in hand. Not an overly generous price for me. I am sure Out Sam wants softer here, or at least has a surface like this to prove- and I would want to see a bit more hardy big field form for a race like this, in the context of his price. Perfect Candidate wouldn’t be a nice winner to watch, he is a TTP selection along with a couple more in here (SS + Southfield) – When counting the jockey’s 3lb claim when he last won, he is now 8lb higher than beating Forgotten Gold here- and this is a much deeper race than that one. I wondered whether he had the class for this/enough in hand. I decided he doesn’t and hope he doesn’t prove me wrong. The rest have enough questions for me.
Waldorf Salad – 1 point win – 5/1 (general) 9/2 (general) UP 6/1
Kayf Moss – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) UP 7/1
Market spoke there for the winner, 10s into 4s, no unexposed winner ever a shock, yard in form, I wondered whether up to this task,but ‘they knew’ it seems. Walkforf was weak in the market suggesting he may not have been fit,folded tamely. Kay Moss never travelled and jumped out to the right alarmingly which I hadn’t noticed on his two runs at Chepstow/Ffos Las- not sure if something amiss, he was well backed,albeit nothing was beating that winner. Clunker.
Waldorf Salad – he just looks solid and I thought 5s was fair enough here. He ticks plenty of Venetia angles, (a couple below,+ a TTP micro angle) is still unexposed enough, will be fit I think,relishes the mud and likes to front run. He could make all here, or at least be in the right spot. His best form/only form is all in the December/Jan period so a time of year he does well. That Ascot run was decent where he was pestered for plenty of the journey but that was a decent race. He is also top rated on HRB and I couldn’t really find a fault with him in truth. The solid option for me, and sometimes that is good enough.
Kayf Moss- well he is the punt at 12s but I thought plenty to like about his chance here. He is unexposed over fences, 0/5,2p, and if he could ever repeat some of his decent hurdles form over the larger obstacles, he would have a great chance. Those runs at Ffos Las and Chepstow were decent enough and his jumping looked fine there. He ran well on his reappearance LTO in a strong C2 handicap hurdle, where he was up there until tiring 3 from home or so. He should come on for it and the trainer is 3/11 in the last 30 days. He will race prominently also, and has no problem with the mud. At the prices when I looked, he was the bigger one that stood out.
There are 3/4 dangers/clangers/oh damn I picked the wrong one horses… Gonalston Cloud is interesting – he was fat to my eye the last day when I was there but even so, that was a really poor run. He was being ridden as they headed out for the final circuit and dropped away tamely. Conditions shouldn’t have been a problem. It was just a tad too poor for me, for an 8/1 shot. I would like to see more. I wouldn’t be shocked if he bounced back but making too many excuses for poor runs with chasers hasn’t been a great tactic of mine in the past. Subtle Grey is interesting- but there is a fitness question and McCain is hit and miss with chasers after long breaks- he can ready them but it is a question. I also don’t know the strength of his form and this is a deep race, considering the small field races he had won in. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got involved but he can be a tricky character also. Just about happy to leave, he may prove me wrong. Another unexposed one. Audacious Plan is interesting – I can see why at 14s Nick would be interested below in the comments- he was generally 7s/8s this morning and I have missed that price- which is now probably fair enough. There are bits and pieces of chase form where you can make a case and there could be excuses for recent poor efforts. He did show more in a C4 hurdle LTO and if building on that back over fences he could go well. But, his recent chase form has been shocking and at 7s a bit of a chance would need to be taken. 14s probably allowed that stab. He is a danger if running to his best, such as that run at Punchestown. Willoughby Hedge I thought was short enough around 5/1 given the break, the relative inexperience, and more so the question as to soft ground. It is an unknown really. He may be fine on it but that that price, given that question is combined with a fitness questions, I was happy for him to prove me wrong. Kaki looked only fairly priced given I am unsure as to the level of form, the stable is a bit cold (0/12,0p 30 days) and he is lightly raced in a way which suggests he has had problems. The selection looks a much better 5s shot to my eye. But, another unexposed one. The rest have a few too many questions,albeit the Richards horse is also unexposed but again this is the deepest race he has encountered.
Pace- well both of these two will be up there, with any luck 1st and 2nd all the way round, battling it out over the last! There should be no excuse on that front.
That will be all.
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– LIVE TEST (emphasis on test)
2.40 Chelts- The Eagle Has Landed (clear top weights – Nicholls not exactly confident in his Betafair column)
12.55 Chelt- Treaty Girl UP / Yes I Did UP
1.15 Bangor – Waldorf Salad (missed that first time) UP
December Trainers (again new,never been tested live)
1.30 Chelts – Sausalito Sunrise UP
2.05 Chelts – Bertie Boru
2.40 Chelt – For Good Measure 2nd 13/2
Tom George Handicap Chase
12.55 Chelt – Song Sea UP
V Williams Chasers November (tracking into Dec as yard looked to be 3/4 weeks behind this year)
1.15 Bang – Waldorf Salad- UP
That will do for today. Good luck with any bets.